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To wonder if Starmer can survive the vibe-shift?

584 replies

User09678 · 22/01/2025 12:25

Trump has been going hell for leather since his inauguration it seems, things are changing fast - Trump likes the UK, but he doesn't like Starmer. Starmer seems out of sync with the changing tide, and seems (to me) to get it wrong and make it worse everytime he opens his mouth. AIBU in wondering how long Starmer can hang on?

OP posts:
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luckylavender · 23/01/2025 13:59

@User09678 - why on earth would he step back after 6 months? And even if he did Labour would replace him, it's what the Tories did.

Grumpyoldpersonwithcats · 23/01/2025 13:46

User09678 · 23/01/2025 13:39

It doesn't look like a democracy from where I'm standing

Genuinely interested - why not?

The current Government has been voted in in exactly the same way as the previous ones were. No government pleases everyone - but in our democracy it's the party with the highest number of seats that forms a government for a defined period of time. There will be a formal opportunity to have your vote heard at the next election.
And I say this as a Labour supporter who has recorded my vote in an absolutely solid Tory seat for the last 25 years

MaryWhitehouseExperienced · 23/01/2025 13:40

User09678 · 23/01/2025 08:34

What do the pardons have to do with capitalism?

I was being a bit OTT but was referring to the end of the world, not to capitalism.

User09678 · 23/01/2025 13:39

luckylavender · 23/01/2025 10:55

Sounds like that's what you want. Be careful what you wish for. This is our democracy. We should protect it.

It doesn't look like a democracy from where I'm standing

OP posts:
taxguru · 23/01/2025 13:35

JHound · 23/01/2025 13:30

Also for all the talk about the popularity of politicians like Trump - the man has run for election three times and has never managed to convince a majority of the electorate to vote for him.

US elections always seem to be won/lost on very fine margins. I don't think I can remember a convincing majority win over the past few decades.

JHound · 23/01/2025 13:30

Also for all the talk about the popularity of politicians like Trump - the man has run for election three times and has never managed to convince a majority of the electorate to vote for him.

luckylavender · 23/01/2025 10:55

User09678 · 22/01/2025 12:25

Trump has been going hell for leather since his inauguration it seems, things are changing fast - Trump likes the UK, but he doesn't like Starmer. Starmer seems out of sync with the changing tide, and seems (to me) to get it wrong and make it worse everytime he opens his mouth. AIBU in wondering how long Starmer can hang on?

Sounds like that's what you want. Be careful what you wish for. This is our democracy. We should protect it.

MrsFinkelstein · 23/01/2025 10:47

RubyWinehouse · 22/01/2025 21:23

Have you watched the video of Musk giving a so called Nazi salute or just seen a still from it? Because if you watched the video it shows him touching his heart, then lifting his arm in a gesture to send his love. Not a Nazi salute at all.

Nope, you're not doing that today.

Here's a video of him actually touching his heart and throwing it out to the crowd.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGdAHsFuQ/

TikTok - Make Your Day

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGdAHsFuQ

MrsFinkelstein · 23/01/2025 10:46

Starmer doesn't need to call another election until 2029.

The next US GE will be in 2028.
People seem to have incredibly short memories of how constant and unrelenting of a complete dumpster fire the last Trump administration was. This one has already surpassed it for early controversies.

Trump is 78. Starmer is 62. I know who I'd place me bets on outlasting who.

taxguru · 23/01/2025 10:40

ACynicalDad · 22/01/2025 23:36

Can see PM Farage at the next election, I think we only went left with the rest of the world going right as people were sick of the Tories, not sure anyone was particularly excited by Starmer. He's a manager not a leader, but I suspect he will hold on for the parliament and find it hard to work with Trump.

I agree, but the UK "didn't go left" - the Labour vote was pretty much the same as under Corbyn. It was the Tory vote that splintered with enough votes going to Reform which caused them to lose so many seats. Unless the Tories can attract those voters back, then Reform will continue to grow and could well get enough seats to be decisive in a coalition.

taxguru · 23/01/2025 10:38

The Labour government will survive the full 5 year term, but Starmer won't. Labour will oust him around 2027/28 to bring in a new leader who is more likely to win the 2029 GE as Starmer is too unpopular to take Labour to a 2029 GE win. Yes, I know there's time, but he's highly unlikely to be able to perform miracles to become more popular himself. I'd put money on Raynor mounting a leadership challenge in a couple of years or so, once Starmer has done all the dirty work (i.e. unpopular policies) and she can brand herself as the optimistic future leader. But I don't think Raynor would win the 2029 GE as leader either. I think Labour are a "one-term wonder"

TheNuthatch · 23/01/2025 09:55

I thought Starmer looked quite rattled at PMQ's yesterday by both the cons and the lib dem questions.

ByMerryKoala · 23/01/2025 09:43

It is. And the 70% of the electorate who think that things are getting worse doesn't bode well for labour before the scale of the intended welfare cuts are known. The system is in a huge amount of flux and there's really no way to know how it will pan out yet but the trajectory of Labour's support, of lack thereof, seems decidedly stubborn.

EasternStandard · 23/01/2025 09:34

ByMerryKoala · 23/01/2025 09:05

More in Common voting intentions out today/ yesterday have Conservatives and Reform neck and neck at 25% and Labour in third at 24%.

Tracking public opinion https://search.app/SQ3zS586K4rVjqmc6

Blimey. And posters go on about not all posts being pro Labour. This is why, a public site reflects opinion

It probably would do more if some didn’t try to drive views they don’t like off

dontcryformeargentina · 23/01/2025 09:32

This reply has been deleted

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TheNuthatch · 23/01/2025 09:30

I know polls don't really matter at this point in the electoral cycle, but blimey that's quite a shift!

ByMerryKoala · 23/01/2025 09:05

More in Common voting intentions out today/ yesterday have Conservatives and Reform neck and neck at 25% and Labour in third at 24%.

Tracking public opinion https://search.app/SQ3zS586K4rVjqmc6

https://search.app/SQ3zS586K4rVjqmc6

User09678 · 23/01/2025 08:34

MaryWhitehouseExperienced · 23/01/2025 08:07

That's not so difficult to imagine these days.

I have never in my lifetime seen anything like Trump's pardoning the men who attacked US police. Biden's actions in this regard are just as bad imo.

What do the pardons have to do with capitalism?

OP posts:
MaryWhitehouseExperienced · 23/01/2025 08:13

ACynicalDad · 22/01/2025 23:52

I can see them being larger than the Tories and a coalition. I can also see them spitting the right between them and both doing badly. Many possibilities.

Dream on.

One of the things that makes me proud to be a Brit is that we have historically always fought off the far right. It feels as though the tradition of political decency disappeared along with the advent of Boris Johnson (history will reveal just how dangerous and destructive he actually was) but I believe that it may take a while but Britain always sees off the wrong uns.

It's so strange that things have changed so much and we have become so seduced by the demagogues that Starmer comes across so badly

I fantasise that there exists such a thing as Karma, by the way, and I live for the day when it kicks populist hatemongerers like Farage, Musk and Trump up the you-know-what.

MaryWhitehouseExperienced · 23/01/2025 08:07

User09678 · 22/01/2025 15:32

What makes you think capitalism is going to collapse? Its easier to imagine the end of the world

That's not so difficult to imagine these days.

I have never in my lifetime seen anything like Trump's pardoning the men who attacked US police. Biden's actions in this regard are just as bad imo.

user281262 · 23/01/2025 07:08

There is a core group who congregate in a certain thread to laugh and sneer and encourage others to join in. Just ignore them. Sit down with a cup of tea and click through their thread. Comedy gold.

itsgettingweird · 23/01/2025 04:27

It’s a bad thing when it’s the same group of posters actively trying to shut down discussion. So much so, their usernames are now synonymous with closing down anything remotely critical of Labour. There are a handful of posters trying desperately to turn AIBU into an echo chamber.

I dont recognise this at all.

I doe see some posters from all parties relentlessly defending their party though. But not many posters.

XWKD · 23/01/2025 00:00

The current British government has several years left. Labour was chosen by the people, who don't get to choose again until the next election.

Shit-stirring by Trump or Musk won't change that.

ACynicalDad · 22/01/2025 23:52

Llttledrummergirl · 22/01/2025 23:42

You think reform will go from 5 seats to 400+ in 4 years, whilst losing their local candidates?

I disagree. Britain is not likely to move that far to the right. Especially when people start to examine their policies and budgets.

I can see them being larger than the Tories and a coalition. I can also see them spitting the right between them and both doing badly. Many possibilities.

Jumpingthruhoops · 22/01/2025 23:42

ByMerryKoala · 22/01/2025 12:39

Were Labour's win a vote in confidence for Starmer, rather than a rejection of the Tory party, then he and the party wouldn't have seem such a startling drop in popularity over the last six months.

Exactly this. Many people voted Labour as they were the 'least worse' opinion. The more significant result was how many people voted Reform, whose membership is growing daily. Dismiss them at your peril.