To wonder if Starmer can survive the vibe-shift?

They may do. But I also think the prospect of a Reform victory would galvinise tactical voting amongst left leaning voters and One Nation Conservatives.

It might also galvanise the youth vote who, broadly speaking, don't support Reform. Although there is some Reform support amongst younger men.

Reform came second in 89 Labour seats at the GE. If things continue as they are with the two main parties I think many more voters will hold their noses and vote for Reform.

Yes, absolutely. It's only the number of seats that counts. It's hard to predict what reform would net with any voting share but I saw some scenarios which suggested that they could net 139 seats at 26%, that they would become the largest party at 28% and could see an overall majority at 31%.

I mean it's all guesswork but it holds that even minor gains at this point would turn the two party system in their favour.

Reform Scenarios https://search.app/6kZn3yje5jkcourn8

But of course, there's a long time to go. And the situation seems so alien that it feels instinctively unlikely.

As I said I don't agree with pp voters that voters are resistant to change

In number of votes they do

Unless the electoral system changes, the number of seats is the only thing that matters, whether one likes it or not.

There are four years to go. Let's see what the polls show then. Four years is a long time for Farage and co. to pretend to be genuinely representing their constituencies. I wonder who will be Tory leader in four years?

The UK doesn’t like a lot of change, hence (imo) why reform only got 5 seats

This is more to do with the electoral system than number of votes

Eg Reform are polling higher than Labour currently

Did you vote in the last GE? We in the UK don’t have a presidential system. My ballot had at least 5 options to vote for. You can’t complain we don’t have a democracy if you don’t vote, and I’ve never heard of a constituency with only two candidates. I’m in favour of a more proportional system, but a democracy isn’t defined by you getting your own way or not.

He can hang on until 2028. I doubt Labour will call an early GE unless the polls were in their favour. KS is and always has been a boring centrist.

Europe and the US continues to be plagued by right wing populism and it looks like the UK does too.

Hopefully in 2028 we will not have an even further lurch to the right.

I’m a left wing socialist so don’t really have any political representation.

I suspect Reform UK will continue to agitate, and it’s very easy for most in society (especially in England) to blame those who most recently arrived for all their problems. I can’t see Reform winning a majority but could see them overtaking the Lib Dem’s.

Trump ultimately is a protectionist. He’s a lot less interested in starmer and the UK than starmer and the UK are in him/the US. We really aren’t significant in the world or a major global player. Just a little country always whinging about immigration, and crying over the loss of the empire. Pathetic really.

The entirety of westminister (all parties) are very junior, severe lack of life and political experience and poorly advised. Farage is a very junior MP, and doesn’t seem very interested in the grunt work.

The UK doesn’t like a lot of change, hence (imo) why reform only got 5 seats. They might have found a group of people that are naive and easily led and appealed to the base instinct of racism but even if reform UK ever did get in, I doubt they’d actually achieve anything and people would still moan about immigration. We could have no immigrants and the English would still moan about immigration.

The Labour party won the election with 33.7% of the voting share so that it some fall from grace. Apparently the party have never polled lower than 18% in its entire history.

Maybe they polled the 3000 Sainsbury's workers who have just lost their jobs!
Every poll I see seems to show a further decline for Labour.

Another day, another voting intention poll, this time:

Reform 26%
Conservatives 23%
Labour 22%

Voting intention: 22nd Jan 2025 - Find Out Now search.app/Z2cXtgrac6nBeeJo9

It seems the media like to call labour left of centre but tories and reform as right wing. Even if Reform are right wing, I think that's a step away from far right. I think they speak to a certain type of person who feels left behind, they could easily get a chunk of the brexit coallition back together. Which isn't far right much as some people like to paint it.

I think people are embarrassed. She's wildly unpopular and constantly humiliated in PMQ.

This sums up Starmer at PMQ

If he wasn't doing so badly he wouldn't have led the party to poll third

Then you can't be in the UK. I had the option of at least 8 candidates on my ballot paper, and I would guess that Scotland, Wales and Ireland had more.

I disagree because I think that Labour has offered something different to the previous Conservative government. If they were the same why would some people here be so outraged by what they perceive Labour has done since being in power?
No party gives me everything I'd like. There isn't a grumpyoldpersonwithcats party just for me because it wouldn't suit anybody else. However I look at the offerings and align my vote to the party which is closest.

If you really don't think any existing party represents your interests you are free to start a party of your own. Farage has done it with some success. This is democracy in action.

Where are you standing?
Are you in the UK?
What elements of democracy do you feel are missing from the way things are in the UK?

I think people are embarrassed. She's wildly unpopular and constantly humiliated in PMQ.

I started a couple of threads and was informed that we shouldn't be discussing the opposition.

@User09678

OP, what doesn't look like a democracy

But a majority. Which was my comment. People are panicking as to what this says about the US electorate but Trump has never obtained a majority.

He has never convinced at least 50% of the electorate to vote him. Even when he won.

This is what I said and nothing you have posted contradicts that:

Also for all the talk about the popularity of politicians like Trump - the man has run for election three times and has never managed to convince a majority of the electorate to vote for him.

All recent elections in the US were won/lost within 4% of the 50%, so it's always very fine margins, and like I say, never a "convincing" win.

Bill Clinton got 43%/49%
George Bush got 48%/51%
Barrack Obama 53%/51%
Joe Biden 51%
Trump in 2024 50%

All very marginal!

You can’t go against everything you stand for - every principle of democracy and humanity - just because of a “vibe shift”

Well yes - it may appear that way to those who are bots or not very bright.

Most of them have won more than 50%.

Trump has never attained 50% of the popular vote.

@User09678 - what doesn't feel like a democracy?