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Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?

389 replies

Startingagainandagain · 09/01/2025 18:02

I will start by saying I voted Labour, but I am increasingly concerned about what the government has done so far.

Today there are warning that food prices could shoot up, the pound is going down, there were big jitters on the bonds market and government borrowing is higher than planned.

More generally Reeves seems to have spooked businesses and they have no will to expand or employ more people.

I agreed that the Tories left a total mess.

But Labour seems to just go from bad to worse and I am really starting to wish she could be replaced by someone more competent to restore some confidence.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
8
HellsBalls · 14/01/2025 08:16

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/01/2025 08:10

The runway might not be government funded, but the supporting infrastructure will be and the opposition to it will be huge.

It’s not a silver bullet.

How many years have these runways been on the table?
Fuck the opposition to the runways, it’s only nimbyism. Labour are supposed to be the party of change. Well fucking change something then!
They have the majority to do what they want.
To be fair, they managed to change planning, the runways are the just another step.
How many cancelled flights when the weather is bad? The runways will be beneficial.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/01/2025 08:10

HellsBalls · 14/01/2025 07:56

Labour could help themselves by approving the third runway at Heathrow and the second at Gatwick. As long as it’s not government funded, two very easy wins for immediate work and long term benefits to the economy.

The runway might not be government funded, but the supporting infrastructure will be and the opposition to it will be huge.

It’s not a silver bullet.

HellsBalls · 14/01/2025 07:56

Labour could help themselves by approving the third runway at Heathrow and the second at Gatwick. As long as it’s not government funded, two very easy wins for immediate work and long term benefits to the economy.

EasternStandard · 14/01/2025 07:18

HellsBalls · 14/01/2025 07:14

Labour’s new motto ‘A return to boom and bust’?

A bust might be better than this dying fly situation. Get rid of all the shill businesses dependent of the government paying UC to their part time employees. Drop those fucking house prices to realistic levels. Clear out everything that is non-essential. In 4 years time the recovery would be underway.

Edited

I think they got their lines mixed up

Smash the gangs and fastest growing economy

HellsBalls · 14/01/2025 07:14

Labour’s new motto ‘A return to boom and bust’?

A bust might be better than this dying fly situation. Get rid of all the shill businesses dependent of the government paying UC to their part time employees. Drop those fucking house prices to realistic levels. Clear out everything that is non-essential. In 4 years time the recovery would be underway.

Michelle12A · 14/01/2025 07:11

the economy is now crashing

dottiehens · 14/01/2025 06:59

PerditaLaChien · 13/01/2025 19:24

One person doesn't crash the bloody economy (except liz truss who was actually completely bonkers). Rachel reeves hasn't really done much! Interest rates are up in loads of places, its not really just the uk.

What a ridiculous post.

dottiehens · 14/01/2025 06:58

Yep. Many of those unemployed people will go on benefits so a much bigger mess is coming for the welfare state.

NOTANUM · 14/01/2025 06:54

Starmer lacks political DNA - he should fire Tulip immediately but won’t as she’s his mate in the next constituency, and should absolutely not be backing Reeves so categorically.
Before yesterday I thought he was just waiting until after the March budget as that’s a real poisoned chalice.
Labour have destroyed business sentiment and unemployment will rise while investment is falling while the global markets are very mixed. It’s a totally stupid move made only because Starmer hasn’t got political DNA not to be boxed into saying no tax rises.

dottiehens · 14/01/2025 06:46

WidgetDigit2022 · 11/01/2025 08:42

Did the Tory’s do any better? No is the answer, public services have got to shit thanks to Tory’s, disproportionately affecting the vulnerable.

You soon may find that Labour is going after the vulnerable. Even more as I count most pensioners as vulnerable. Disabled people for example.

MyLimeGuide · 13/01/2025 19:58

SharpOpalNewt · 10/01/2025 00:06

Nonsense. That is just so offensively incorrect.

"Offence" bizarre reaction!!! Liz truss was a scapegoat for the following-
Ukraine war
Covid
Climate change

ThisOldThang · 13/01/2025 19:47

If she resigns 'to spend more time with her family', it will get him off the hook.

Tryingtokeepgoing · 13/01/2025 19:33

senua · 13/01/2025 19:00

The BBC has an article today saying " the prime minister's official spokesman said: "You heard from the prime minister this morning.
"He was very explicit (that) he has full confidence in the chancellor and he'll be working with her in the role of chancellor for the whole of this Parliament."

He's painting himself into a corner again!

It’s an odd thing to say really. As far as I’m aware, no other recent PM has been so explicit, and the markets and the public also know that he can’t say that with certainty. Was it MacMillan that said ‘events dear boy, events’? So, instead of calming them down, it makes it more apparent that the government doesn’t really know what it’s doing.

PerditaLaChien · 13/01/2025 19:24

One person doesn't crash the bloody economy (except liz truss who was actually completely bonkers). Rachel reeves hasn't really done much! Interest rates are up in loads of places, its not really just the uk.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 13/01/2025 19:23

senua · 13/01/2025 19:00

The BBC has an article today saying " the prime minister's official spokesman said: "You heard from the prime minister this morning.
"He was very explicit (that) he has full confidence in the chancellor and he'll be working with her in the role of chancellor for the whole of this Parliament."

He's painting himself into a corner again!

He keeps making statements that are very difficult to walk back.

The inquiry, Tulip Siddiq, Rachel Reeves.

senua · 13/01/2025 19:00

The BBC has an article today saying " the prime minister's official spokesman said: "You heard from the prime minister this morning.
"He was very explicit (that) he has full confidence in the chancellor and he'll be working with her in the role of chancellor for the whole of this Parliament."

He's painting himself into a corner again!

Anniedash · 13/01/2025 18:46

When the next set of GDP figures comes out and shows that the country is in a recession, then people will realize that the economy has been driven headstraight into a wall.

GDP per capita is already reducing due to uncontrolled mass immigration and too many workshy sitting at home claiming welfare, the overall economy is mostly likely already in recession.

25 years of socialism has well and truly destroyed then country.

EasternStandard · 13/01/2025 18:41

Over this

Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?
EasternStandard · 13/01/2025 18:41

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 16:50

That shows that GDP grew 0.5% in the three months to July, with services output up 0.6%. Subsequently that was revised down to 0.4%. But in the three months to April that year growth was 0.7%. So that’s 1.1% growth in the first half of 2024. It’s shows growth was slowing as well…but that’s generally attributed to election uncertainty. Who knows though.

What’s certain is that the budget was negative for growth - no one credible is disputing that, and even the chancellor has asked ministers to cease anti growth policies we hear. Q3 2024 growth was 0%, likely to be revised down. Q4 is not published yet, but it’ll be bad. So the second half will be, at best 0% I expect.

That’s almost all because of the Government talking down of the economy - the impact of their changes is yet to be felt, though of course people will have reduced spending / investment / hiring based on what’s happening to interest rates, NI and the likely impact on pay rises. We’ve already seen that retail had a pretty bad Christmas period, relatively, reflecting a downturn in consumer sentiment

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/07/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-christmas-sales-growth-card-spending

And most forecasters are now saying that at best growth in 2025 will be 1% to 1.5% in the UK. So barely more than we achieved in the first half of 2024. The number of interest rate cuts forecast has been slashed from 4 to 1 or 2. That’s good news for you and me, who are older and savers I expect. But it’s bad news for the younger hardworking (to steal a phrase that keeps coming back to bite the government).

Yeh I think Labour would prefer this

Is the Chancellor about to crash the economy?
Dismaljanuary · 13/01/2025 18:30

The tentative signs of growth were why some tory felt sunnak should have waited.

However there was no other solutions at that time except them going

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 16:50

That shows that GDP grew 0.5% in the three months to July, with services output up 0.6%. Subsequently that was revised down to 0.4%. But in the three months to April that year growth was 0.7%. So that’s 1.1% growth in the first half of 2024. It’s shows growth was slowing as well…but that’s generally attributed to election uncertainty. Who knows though.

What’s certain is that the budget was negative for growth - no one credible is disputing that, and even the chancellor has asked ministers to cease anti growth policies we hear. Q3 2024 growth was 0%, likely to be revised down. Q4 is not published yet, but it’ll be bad. So the second half will be, at best 0% I expect.

That’s almost all because of the Government talking down of the economy - the impact of their changes is yet to be felt, though of course people will have reduced spending / investment / hiring based on what’s happening to interest rates, NI and the likely impact on pay rises. We’ve already seen that retail had a pretty bad Christmas period, relatively, reflecting a downturn in consumer sentiment

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/07/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-christmas-sales-growth-card-spending

And most forecasters are now saying that at best growth in 2025 will be 1% to 1.5% in the UK. So barely more than we achieved in the first half of 2024. The number of interest rate cuts forecast has been slashed from 4 to 1 or 2. That’s good news for you and me, who are older and savers I expect. But it’s bad news for the younger hardworking (to steal a phrase that keeps coming back to bite the government).

Papyrophile · 12/01/2025 15:40

The 'right wing' press is historically more interested in finance, money and economics than the more liberal titles. Like it or not, the Mail has always had a good reputation for its Money pages, as has the Telegraph, and it is actually the section of the paper where outright lies are not permitted.

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 14:40

Username056 · 12/01/2025 12:53

Why would they need to do this? If it’s true that it’s only reported in the “right wing” press how does this help gauge reaction? It’s already fairly obvious what the split would be from a political voting point of view on cuts to some areas of the welfare budget.

Don’t ask me - I’m not a politician. But parties of all colours take the same approach. I suppose it lets them tweak things if needs be or, more likely, get the initial outrage out of the way so that when the actual change is made some of the anger has dissipated.

EasternStandard · 12/01/2025 12:55

Justhere65 · 12/01/2025 12:42

The economy was starting to improve by the time Labour took over, under thevConservatives. So sadly we will never know which way it would have gone.

Yes it was growing better than expected, the OECD revised forecast

We’ll see what happens now we’ve flatlined after the GE

Username056 · 12/01/2025 12:53

Tryingtokeepgoing · 12/01/2025 10:13

Only the usual government leaks to selected parts of the press to gauge public response I expect. It what usually happens!

Why would they need to do this? If it’s true that it’s only reported in the “right wing” press how does this help gauge reaction? It’s already fairly obvious what the split would be from a political voting point of view on cuts to some areas of the welfare budget.