To think that Reform might overtake the Conservatives at the next GE?

Labour don’t need to ‘change their tune’.
They are 4 months into do8ng exactly what they said. Lots of tangible things.

That doesn’t translate to overtaking the Tories nationally though, does it? They beat them in 5 seats. Means nothing

YANBU @Annabella92.

The next couple of years hold only more exposure of Tory incompetence, corruption and lies leaving right wingers with nowhere else to go but Reform UK.

We've already seen it. It's what happened n July of this year.

I think the Conservatives would have to have performed really poorly over the next four years if they can't galvanise the traditional Conservative base to vote for them in response to this particular Labour government.

It was Brexit which caused the surge in numbers. All but his most devoted followers have realised immigration numbers were lower pre-Brexit.

Brexit was his fucked up baby. Even the farmers wouldn’t let him speak at their protest last week because they’ve clocked he’s becoming box office poison and would cause them PR problems. He’d turned up in his new Barbour coat and flat cap ready to put on a self promoting show.

No.

1. as PP have said, they scored around the same vote as UKIP 10 years ago - and this latest election was the one where circumstances were the very best for them, yet they still couldn't build. Realistically there's always going to be around 10-12,% of voters who are thick/racist/gullible/conspiracy nuts, and these days they'll generally go for UKIP/Brexit party/Reform/whoever the latest grifting incarnation is.

2. yes Trumpism may be riding high right now but by the next UK GE we'll have witnessed four years of the effects of his policies from across the pond. I doubt it will look quite as appealing after seeing 30% inflation/nice old grandmothers getting deported/middle class families losing their homes and being persucuted because the mum had the audacity to work hard in a nice job in the civil service.

They’re going to have to actually do something to be elected. At the moment they’ve done absolutely nothing. Nigel Farage isn’t even in his constituency atm so after five years he’s unlikely to be re-elected.

Most votes this time were to get the tories out, and that includes the majority of people who voted for labour.

The Tories will almost certainly be re-elected after five years, unless labour actually change their tune and do something tangible.

Their manifesto of “we’re not the tories” isn’t going to sell at the next election, and right now they’ve only pissed off the electorate, and again, in five years time they’re not going to be able to say “we’ve had to deal with what the tories left behind,” that claim has a shelf life.

PS: before I’m accused of being a Tory bot (how tiresome but predictable, I didn’t vote for any of the above.

I think she means you're assuming ethnic minorities won't vote for racists who want them deported? I'd have thought that was a safe enough assumption, had I not witnessed all the fishermen and farmers merrily voting for Brexit 🤦‍♀️

Obviously. Which is why I bloody said it

Never say never.

People are getting fed up and they don’t know where else to look. Labour and Tories are every bit to blame for the likes of Reform rising through the ranks

No, it doesn’t. What assumptions do you think I’m making?

Yes, I agree. It will be interesting to see how this thread ages in 5 years -or sooner, stranger things have happened.

I would love those of us who think it’s possible or even highly likely to be wrong though and I’ll happily return to eat my humble pie.

It's not outwith the realms of possibility, but I'd say it's unlikely.

Reform is basically UKIP rebranded - UKIP got just under 4M votes in the 2015 GE, so Farage basically carried over the same votes and swung a few more in 2024.

Judging by the simmering scandals that appear to be brewing and Farage's inability to be a constituency MP it's not guaranteed they will be able to maintain those numbers.

Anyone who talks about a ‘narrative’ is not worth debating with.
What ‘ethnic minority vote’ for a start

Well obviously in sone areas they were close…

So that Farage can promote American style evangelical culture war topics like rolling back abortion rights like he did this afternoon? Nah don’t think so.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-abortion-limit-reform-b2655446.html

Plus the country would never see him. He’d be permanently in America promoting American interests. Has he even held a survey yet in Clacton?

Only if you weren't paying attention to what just happened in the US or you've stuck your fingers in your ears so you can continue believing your preferred narrative.

No the Tories will win back some seats

Farage will have fucked off the to US to stick his head up Trumps arse and the party is nothing without him

As long as we don’t have to suffer another round of this muppet show !!! I know you all love them and they can do no wrong but back in the real world people are spitting feathers. Myself included. Hypocrites.

No for several reasons. Farage agitated for Brexit and told a lot of lies and people haven't forgotten.

Their manifesto is uncosted and makes little sense. Farage is a huge Trump supporter and has barely spent any time in his constituency. I doubt they'd re-elect him and the party hangs on him.

Their MPs seem to be a bunch of dodgy bigots with no experience. People voted for them to get out the Tories. For some it was a protest vote but I doubt many see them as credible contenders.

However they are dragging the country further right and until the government sort out immigration, they'll remain a danger.

Figures were released today showing record numbers of immigrants. I think it was about 900k came in this year and neither party has a plan.

Badenoch has some kind of immigration idea but doesn't have the details. I imagine it will mostly incite division and be a lot of hot air. She's also threatening to get rid off our human rights.

It's possible but I don't think NF will be able to hold things together that long.

We recently had a local by election. Reform got soundly whipped. Unless they a) merge back with the Tories and b) come up with policies that will relate to a wider audience, then no.

I definitely think we'll swing right at the next GE so I'm hoping the Tories have got themselves together as a viable option so we can stay closer to the centre.

Not in the area I counted. Reform gained over the Tories in one and were around 1500-2000 behind in the other 2.

I didn't count votes for the entire country

It makes perfect sense. Especially if you don't make assumptions