Private Schools- hear me out before you judge!

And there is no allegation against Pennycook currently under investigation listed on the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards website.

This does not prove that there wasn’t collusion. I don’t think you would believe any evidence because it’s not convenient for you to do so.

No, the fact is that Sibieta and Pennycook are known to each.

The allegation that there is collusion is just that - an allegation.

And there is no allegation against Pennycook currently under investigation listed on the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards website.

You can also see how many pupils school are over by. It’s really interesting.

If I were running, I don’t know, a country say, I’d be more worried about this than prison capacity. But that’s just me.

😅yes and no, you can look them up online of course.

But, I can physically see the pupil numbers dwindling year on year. One of them can no longer play sports against other schools without mixing year groups to field teams. I see the other ones walking to their PE lessons across the road and the classes are looking very small. Like everyone says, these are businesses, they will not all survive.

You can also look up historic admissions - so the catholic prep used to have 220 pupils. Now it has 180. That’s a massive £336,000 loss in fees over the last couple of years.

The information is out there for us all to see.

It’s all connected. The IFS report is the story and the collusion behind it. There would be no story if Sibieta hadn’t have been the sole writer of the report. Or if he and Pennycook didn’t have the friendship that they have. They are facts not allegations.

That’s really interesting Thankyou.!
Off to do some research now, I do love a bit of number crunching 🥳

Yup I just googled ‘school name pupil numbers’ and the link is right there to the council website. I can see that not just my area but my entire city and most of my county is very very nearly full. The larger area I live in has 11 private schools, of which I think 5 are at risk, 2 very seriously.

I haven’t made a single comment on the IFS report, so no goalposts have been moved.

I have commented on the allegations made by Guido and then repeated by The Telegraph (and taken as gospel by some) that there must be collusion between Sibieta and Pennycook.

Of course there will be a solution- it just won’t be a very good solution given the total absence of any sort of contingency planning. And if you don’t care about the private school kids (which is despicable) consider that children in the state system will also be negatively affected by larger class sizes, loss of outdoor space due to portocabins, shrinking catchments, etc.

Obviously if a school of that size closes down there will be both kids who will move to another private school ( if there is one available ) and kids who can’t.
I would assume a school of that size would have to lose quite a number before they closed
So there will be a lot of kids without a school

Agree portacabins were a thing in my day at school as the country had an explosion of births. We had the money then of course.
Given previous posts and what teachers from our old schools have said though it doesn’t seem there will be that many teachers around to teach them….we’ll have to wait and see….not a great modus operandi for kids education

Oxfordshire prep school to close https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/24712048.banbury-private-school-close-due-pressure-budget/ (Carrdus school)

Statement from the Governors
Posted November 7th 2024← More News
It is with deep sadness that the Governors confirm that they are currently reviewing the future of Carrdus School and that it is likely to close from the end of the spring term 2025, unless a commercial solution can be found. The Governors are actively continuing to explore all possible avenues to avoid closure but wanted to give the Carrdus community as much notice as possible at this stage.
The introduction of VAT on independent school fees mid academic year, further compounded by the loss of charitable business rates relief and the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, has put a great deal of pressure on parents and schools. Consequently, a number of Carrdus parents have been left with no alternative option but to give notice to withdraw their child from the school either at the end of the autumn term, or at the end of the academic year.
Our focus is now on supporting the Carrdus families to secure places for their children at other local schools, as well as supporting the staff to ensure that the children continue to receive an outstanding education for the remainder of their time at Carrdus.
We would like to take this opportunity to thank the parents and staff who worked tirelessly to make Carrdus such a special school for generations of children who have flourished within its warm and nurturing community.
7 Nov 2024
https://www.carrdusschool.com/news/world-book-day

(Looks like in 2023 it only had 113 pupils - https://carrdus-school.files.svdcdn.com/production/Documents/Inspection/Carrdus-School-ROU-Report.pdf?dm=1710157413 )

You moving the goal posts, on what will persuade you that the IFS report was not worth the paper it was written on and was completely written with a biased agenda, doesn’t change the facts. You take it with a pinch of salt. Of not. It’s up to you. Your opinion is not that important to me.

I thought the scenario was the private school closing down and 2.4k kids suddenly needing a new school. If it's just a largish number leaving, and the school remains, the LA will simply find a solution. It has to. Where I live, there was a sudden explosion in pupil numbers about 15 years ago. They made new classrooms in existing schools, put portacabins in the playground. The La may bus kids into next door local authorities... there WILL be a solution.

That school must already have been close to being unviable to have closed before the actual imposition OP. And with a good 18 months warning prior to the budget. This has been coming down the track for a long time. I predict there'll be more, but they'll be schools already on the brink. A school local to us went bust a few years back - nothing to do with VAT then

because VAT on school fees does nothing to solve the teacher retention crisis.

Interesting. This was exactly the point I was making earlier in the thread. Katherine is well respected and regarded. She knows her stuff.

If they’ve left because they cannot afford it why would they be able to afford another.

Yes but the LA would have early knowledge of that and be in control of and take on board full responsibility of where the kids would go.
There has, however, been no preparation by the Government in this situation.

How do you find out how many kids are currently in each school…is it on the local council website or ?

Well they would have to. Legally they have to. They might send children all over the city, put up portacabins in existing schools, fund home tutors....they have to do something. It may not remotely suit the children or parents, but that is what will happen. Anyway, presumably a lot of the children would go to other Edinburgh private schools?

Completely agree. A few of the comments on these threads read like Disability Top Trumps. DS1’s state infant school experience was a disaster even though he’s had an EHCP and full-time 1:1 support since he was in Reception. He spent several years in a private school that could meet his needs (lower year group, small quiet classes, amazing SEN support, 1:1 who really was with him all the time rather than also checking on other children) because it took us literally years to convince our LA that he needed to be in a specialist school. I find comments suggesting that children with SEN in a private school clearly don’t have much SEN are both insensitive and uninformed.

DS1 has asked for a cuddly toy Paddington Bear and a Lego Sorting Hat for his main Christmas presents this year. He’s 19.

And he’ll never live fully independently. He still spent 3 years in a mainstream private school though.

How many large state schools have closed within the last 10 years?

How many state schools do you know with 1000+ pupils that just close?

But the point is there's not spaces. Schools are already oversubscribed in loads of places.

What will happen is they'll end up having to find private school places ... They do this already for kids they can't provide for. It will just be now more expensive for them and there'll be more funded places.

This isn't really anything to do with private schools. The same thing would happen if any school closed. Kids have to move to the next closest one?

Do you have access to the accounts of the two schools that you think will close?