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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

446 replies

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 14:54

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

OP posts:
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7
OchAyeTheN00 · 07/11/2024 13:24

I hope they do. Reform’s policies are excellent. Labour are a fucking shit show. It’s time the U.K. realised there are more parties than labour and Tory.

Shakeoffyourchains · 07/11/2024 13:21

HellsBalls · 07/11/2024 09:54

Getting into any ‘debate’ on a thread like this is as pointless in trying to engage with the ‘Trump is a rapist and voting for him is a vote to murder babies’ brigade.

Is it pointless because you're not willing to have your views challenged? That would explain why you've completely ignored the question I asked you in favour of continuing to push your narrative.

If you think it's pointless then why even engage at all?

Alexandra2001 · 07/11/2024 13:11

amigafan2003 · 07/11/2024 09:52

Removing individuals to a country that wasn't deemed safe (they had to pass a law to pretend it was), that in recent history had one of the bloodiest civil wars in the world, is lower than the average HDI for sub-saharan countries, and doesn't recognise LGBTQ (with abuse of that group evident), isn't considered far right wing?

I bet you think Hitler was a socialist, you know, because that's what they called the party............

Edited

What the pro Rwandan brigade also forget is that at 500 people per year, Rwanda would not have put people off, around 80k cross the channel in small boats in year, the 79500 people would have still stayed here.

People die crossing the channel, that hasn't acted as a deterrent or across the Med either, where '000s have died.

Also, at least one ex Border Force chief has said the long term solution is international co operation, an example would be Germany changing its laws of storing boats.

Didn't James Cleverly also say the policy was "Batshit" ?

Anyway, legal migration far outstrips boat crossing, at one point, reaching 764k migrants under Badenoch's watch

BIossomtoes · 07/11/2024 12:41

Notaflippinclue · 07/11/2024 12:38

Do you ever drive through a council estate and play 'spot the private homes' - tidy gardens hanging baskets shiny windows - they should have sold the lot of em and started again, old council houses are expensive to maintain for councils - if you own the gaff it's well worth the effort

No, because the former council estate here is now entirely privately owned. They’re solidly built houses on generous plots and are sold the minute they hit the market.

Notaflippinclue · 07/11/2024 12:38

Do you ever drive through a council estate and play 'spot the private homes' - tidy gardens hanging baskets shiny windows - they should have sold the lot of em and started again, old council houses are expensive to maintain for councils - if you own the gaff it's well worth the effort

bulb34 · 07/11/2024 12:36

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:15

4 years away

can’t be arsed to give this any headspace

Exactly.

BIossomtoes · 07/11/2024 12:33

beguilingeyes · 07/11/2024 11:53

Of course they knew. It was Thatcher's flagship policy and did her an enormous amount of good, votes-wise. I sit next to someone at work who bought her council house and thinks the sun shone out of Maggie's arse.

It was particularly egregious because she wouldn’t allow councils to use the proceeds to build more houses.

beguilingeyes · 07/11/2024 11:53

UltraHorse · 07/11/2024 11:45

I think most people buying council houses didn't sadly know it was thanks to the conservatives they got a good discount they would presume it was thanks to labour And if labour had charged a bit more to sell their homes off there would have been more money to build new ones

Of course they knew. It was Thatcher's flagship policy and did her an enormous amount of good, votes-wise. I sit next to someone at work who bought her council house and thinks the sun shone out of Maggie's arse.

MereDintofPandiculation · 07/11/2024 11:48

MumtananoBay · 07/11/2024 11:32

I'm interested in good, useful, respectful discussions, with people who have ideas and can clearly put them across and come to a changed perspective after.

Clearly that rules you out so I will just ignore you from now on.

You pedant.

Thanks goodness for that.

UltraHorse · 07/11/2024 11:45

I think most people buying council houses didn't sadly know it was thanks to the conservatives they got a good discount they would presume it was thanks to labour And if labour had charged a bit more to sell their homes off there would have been more money to build new ones

MumtananoBay · 07/11/2024 11:37

ToWhitToWhoo · 07/11/2024 00:00

Good lord. That would exclude Rishi Sunak for one! For that matter, Kemi Badenoch is not of Northern Europaean origin. Even Boris Johnson has some Muslim and some Jewish ancestors.

I said culture. Not genetics.
BTW Judaism is the root of Christianity, you may recall that from school.

OP posts:
BIossomtoes · 07/11/2024 11:35

MumtananoBay · 07/11/2024 11:32

I'm interested in good, useful, respectful discussions, with people who have ideas and can clearly put them across and come to a changed perspective after.

Clearly that rules you out so I will just ignore you from now on.

You pedant.

You mean you just want people who’ll change their mind and agree with you. Challenging someone’s obvious lack of objectivity with statistics is hardly pedantic.

MumtananoBay · 07/11/2024 11:32

CookieMonster28 · 07/11/2024 10:21

Me too

Looks like 53% of people voting here actually, way higher than I expected

OP posts:
MumtananoBay · 07/11/2024 11:32

MereDintofPandiculation · 07/11/2024 11:11

Your argument would hold water if the sample showed 100 disliking Keir. It doesn't. It shows more people thinking he does a bad job than does a good job. Specifically, that the discrepancy between the two, is -38. To get that result means 69% feel he does a bad job and about 31% feel he does a good job. It's not pedantry to suggest 31% is not the same as 0%.

But you're not actually interested in a discussion, are you?

I'm interested in good, useful, respectful discussions, with people who have ideas and can clearly put them across and come to a changed perspective after.

Clearly that rules you out so I will just ignore you from now on.

You pedant.

OP posts:
MereDintofPandiculation · 07/11/2024 11:11

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Your argument would hold water if the sample showed 100 disliking Keir. It doesn't. It shows more people thinking he does a bad job than does a good job. Specifically, that the discrepancy between the two, is -38. To get that result means 69% feel he does a bad job and about 31% feel he does a good job. It's not pedantry to suggest 31% is not the same as 0%.

But you're not actually interested in a discussion, are you?

BIossomtoes · 07/11/2024 10:48

UltraHorse · 07/11/2024 10:32

Yes user above normal people are concerned about normal things like why have council labour one sold of council housing to housing associations. In the past for one pound per house And why was Angela Raynor on for such a short interview about taking right to buy out of reach of working people

At least those houses are still social housing - unlike the millions that were sold to individuals at knock down prices to bribe their owners to vote Tory.

beguilingeyes · 07/11/2024 10:41

Right to buy has been a disaster for this country, IMO. It was a massive vote winner for the Tories but 40 years later most of them are in the hands of private landlords and you can't get a council house for love nor money.

UltraHorse · 07/11/2024 10:32

Yes user above normal people are concerned about normal things like why have council labour one sold of council housing to housing associations. In the past for one pound per house And why was Angela Raynor on for such a short interview about taking right to buy out of reach of working people

CookieMonster28 · 07/11/2024 10:21

Petrine · 06/11/2024 16:57

In answer to the question posed by the OP… I hope so.

Me too

user1471516498 · 07/11/2024 10:21

I think the fact that Starmer is a relatively inexperienced politician is an issue here. He seems to be pretty good as an administrator but shocking at politics and communication. He really needs an Alastair Campbell figure. Preferably one who doesn't lead us into an illegal war though.

dottiehens · 07/11/2024 10:19

user1471516498 · 07/11/2024 10:08

I think Kemi is mistaken if she thinks that Trump's victory had anything to do with wokism and culture wars. People voted for Trump because they felt better off during his previous term. Normal people are concerned with normal things. All the exit polls showed that people's main concern was the economy.

Yes, so the priorities are not wokism but eating and heating. May be only rich celebrities can afford those views anyway. For some people would be a priority but must are probably just from radical campus politics that influence very young new voters. Do not go on full denial mode on this. Normal hard working people are 🙄 with wokism even when the economy is doing better.

dottiehens · 07/11/2024 10:13

Gosh it is ages for the elections. You would be insane by the time the elections come of a thing you can’t control. A week in politics is long let alone years.

UltraHorse · 07/11/2024 10:09

Wow yes maybe would be great think
And maybe keep
Social housing. Affordable

user1471516498 · 07/11/2024 10:08

I think Kemi is mistaken if she thinks that Trump's victory had anything to do with wokism and culture wars. People voted for Trump because they felt better off during his previous term. Normal people are concerned with normal things. All the exit polls showed that people's main concern was the economy.

Havanananana · 07/11/2024 09:58

The Conservatives were always going to lose the last election - and were probably happy to do so. Having left the country in a total mess after 14 years of mis-management and underinvestment (or rather - having robbed every last penny from the public and handed it to their chums) they were happy to dump the whole shit-show into Labour's lap.

"Everyone hates Keir" - From Day One, there has been a concerted effort on the part of the Conservatives to conduct an ad hom attack on Starmer. Every day, for the next 4 years, you'll be reading headlines in the Express, Mail and Telegraph, seeing posts on "X", and getting Tory trolls posting threads on MN and elsewhere attacking Starmer.

"Reeves will destroy the economy" is the second prong of attack. GBNews proclaims that families will be robbed of 91% of their inheritance. The Mail ran a story about one family (theoretically) paying over 90% in IHT, only to reveal that the estate was worth over £4million - i.e one of only 100 estates of that size in the UK. For 96% of the population, IHT will have no impact whatsoever - and the other 4% can use various schemes to mitigate IHT, which the right-wing press have also been keen to promote as ways to avoid paying tax.

As for other taxes and financial measures - the Conservatives seem to have already convinced a large section of the population that it must have been "someone else" who was in charge for the last 14 years - something that they tried every time they changed leaders from Cameron onwards. It was always "the other lot" wot done it - never them. They still believe the twin lies that it is possible to have good public services without anyone being asked to pay for them, and that the Free Market will solve any and every economic problem.

As we've seen with Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US, a well-organised and well-funded campaign can persuade people to vote against their own interests. Convince people that there is an "enemy" - the EU, "Immigrants", "Lefties" or whoever - and then use lies, slogans, stunts and foghorns like Trump, Boris and Farage (with a supporting cast of nasties like Tommy Robinson and Lee Anderson to say the worst things) to hammer the message home. "Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth." If any opponents can be silenced, then all the better. The Conservatives and Republicans do this by controlling the print and broadcast media. Musk goes one step further, amplifying the right wing and banning any dissenters or opposing views on "X".

Will Farage and Kemi form the next government? It's perfectly plausible, although neither of these two chancers will actually be PM - Boris dreams of a Trumpian come-back, Mel Stride (Public School educated, Oxford PPE, typical Tory grey male stuffed-shirt) is already in place to keep an eye on Kemi, and Honest Bob Jenrick has morphed into a piss-poor Farage tribute act but clearly has the right connections and donors so can't be rule out.