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Original poster

To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

446 replies

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 14:54

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

OP posts:
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7
SilverPuffin · 06/11/2024 15:26

It’s a big misunderstanding to assume that the Tory and Reform electorate can simply merge. The Tories lost plenty of ground to Lib/Lab last time round and would likely continue to do so should they get any closer to reform, possibly even more markedly as a large proportion of those with ‘further’ right leaning are likely already identifying in the 19%.

Krampers · 06/11/2024 15:26

Farage is off to the US now that Trump has won.
Boris will make a comeback.
Kemi isnt winning anything UK is not ready for a non white PM. It literally is that simple. Same as America not ready for a woman leader let alone a POC one.

Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:26

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:19

You’re a Trump supporter aren’t you OP?

I didn't get a vote, did you?

OP posts:
Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:24

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:21

If a week is a long time in politics, 5 years is an aeon. You can't possibly judge what the electorate will think or want in 5 years' time. Badenoch will be very lucky indeed if she can even keep the Conservative Party together, let alone lead it into an election, and I strongly suspect Farage will come to regret hanging onto Trump's coattails.

Do you not see the rightward swing and populist policies that have engulfed Europe as the taste of things to come then? I can only see it getting worse as the world struggles to deal with the next ten years or so. Britain will pull up the draw bridge as much as any other country, but we're better at it as we are an island.

OP posts:
midgetastic · 06/11/2024 15:24

Oh I missed that we could now control thoughts - I guess that's another AI development ?

Notaflippinclue · 06/11/2024 15:24

Scary thought? Not as scary as the thought police in power at the minute

Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:23

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:20

No way! Farage has every to gain by not joining the Conservatives and would lose all he has if he did what you say.

He will stay on the outside carry on eating the bits of the Tories that like Jenrick.

But he has everything to gain, at least the deputy prime minister position, possibly the actual prime minister spot. He doesn't want money, he wants fame and power - thats a path towards it

OP posts:
GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:21

If a week is a long time in politics, 5 years is an aeon. You can't possibly judge what the electorate will think or want in 5 years' time. Badenoch will be very lucky indeed if she can even keep the Conservative Party together, let alone lead it into an election, and I strongly suspect Farage will come to regret hanging onto Trump's coattails.

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:20

No way! Farage has every to gain by not joining the Conservatives and would lose all he has if he did what you say.

He will stay on the outside carry on eating the bits of the Tories that like Jenrick.

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:19

You’re a Trump supporter aren’t you OP?

TheKeatingFive · 06/11/2024 15:18

No.

But there is a warning here and Labour would be well advised to make sure they are not alienating centrist voters.

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:18

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:16

Ok great - why?

Show quote history

what do you why?

can you think of a leader that has lasted 4 years in opposition?

and… Farage likes a. drink

Adelstrop · 06/11/2024 15:18

A week is a long time in politics; 4 years plus is a political eternity. Whichever side you are on, you can take comfort in that. As for me, when I consider Trump’s victory today, that other saying, that all political careers end in failure, helps me take the long view.

CitrineRaindropPhoenix · 06/11/2024 15:18

Nigel Farage won a seat on his 8th attempt. He didn't win an election.

Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:17

CheerfulBunny · 06/11/2024 15:16

Fucking hell, as if today wasn't bleak enough...
Nigel Farage should be blasted into the sun. Even then the fecker would still find some way back.

He still won an election.....

OP posts:
Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:17

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:15

4 years away

can’t be arsed to give this any headspace

well you're no fun.

Also there are a great many reasons why it might happen way before that...

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MumOfOneAllAlone · 06/11/2024 15:16

I can see it 🥺

Labour are gonna have to perform magic in the next couple of years

CheerfulBunny · 06/11/2024 15:16

Fucking hell, as if today wasn't bleak enough...
Nigel Farage should be blasted into the sun. Even then the fecker would still find some way back.

Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:16

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:16

kemi won’t be leader in 4 years

Farage will have succumbed to drink or close to

Ok great - why?

OP posts:
Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:16

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ for breaking our Talk Guidelines.

I think this is a real misunderstanding of the tory psyche. They never turn on strong leaders and they always give their leaders a small window to prove themselves in - or they eat them alive.

So far, Kemi seems to be doing pretty well, a good PMQs today

OP posts:
flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:16

kemi won’t be leader in 4 years

Farage will have succumbed to drink or close to

MotherOfRatios · 06/11/2024 15:15

Populism is spreading across continental Europe and increasingly it is young people supporting it and I think that trend will hit here. Reform came second in a lot of seats.
unless Keir Starmer can make a real impact on ordinary working people before the next election yes we will have reform in power in some shape or form or a far right conservative government

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:15

4 years away

can’t be arsed to give this any headspace

Original poster
MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:14

amigafan2003 · 06/11/2024 15:10

"this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir."

Eh? They have a a massive majority of 156 seats. This means they can essentially pass any legislation they like as they don't have to fear any rebels.

Opinion polls and approvals do matter at all this early on in a term.

Edited
Show quote history

this is a misunderstanding of the numbers. Labour have a seat majority. They do not have a popular vote majority at all, in fact they won the last election with a historically low total% of votes in the country. Labour lost because Reform ran - no other reason at all.

This is the polling on halloween.

To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?
OP posts:
Ablondiebutagoody · 06/11/2024 15:14

To win she needs to be centre-right rather than full on right wing. So yes, be fairly moderate but commit to dealing with immigration. Problem is that nobody will believe her because they all say that then sack it off once in government.