Page 15 | To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

MumtananoBay · 2024-11-06T14:54:22+00:00

Especially after Trump’s win today. labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling ) tories have 27. Reform has 19. so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes) this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

BIossomtoes · 06/11/2024 15:45

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:32

There are a great many more reasons than accident why there could be another election. Also - why are you not interested in looking forward 4 years 6 months? It's hardly the next million years is it?

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It might as well be. Cast your mind back four years and six months.

teatoast8 · 06/11/2024 15:45

Hope not

Mummyoflittledragon · 06/11/2024 15:45

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:43

What do you like about him specifically?

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I am wanting to know that. I find him rather unpleasant. And untrustworthy despite his lawyer credentials.

borntobequiet · 06/11/2024 15:45

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:42

it's really not. What majority do you think Labour have exactly?

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What is the government’s current simple majority?
There are 650 seats in parliament. To have an overall majority, a political party must win over half of these seats: at least 326.
At the 2024 general election, the Labour Party won 411 seats. As of 28 October 2024, this stands at 402 seats following:

the suspension of seven Labour MPs for voting in favour of an SNP amendment, tabled during the debate on the King’s Speech, which called for the government to abolish the two-child benefit limit;
the resignation of Rosie Duffield from the Labour Party, citing a number of disagreements with the party's leadership including the prime minister's acceptance of gifts;
the suspension of Mike Amesbury after an incident captured on CCTV.

The combined total of seats held by opposition parties, independent MPs and the Speaker is therefore 248. This gives the Labour Party a simple majority of 156 seats.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/government-majority

What was in the 2024 King’s Speech? | Institute for Government

The Labour government has set out 40 bills – this explainer takes a closer look at what they are.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/2024-kings-speech

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:45

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:42

it's really not. What majority do you think Labour have exactly?

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In Parliament? Massive. We just had a terrible government that eeked out nearly five years. Starmer won’t do less than four? Wishing doesn’t make it so.

zoemum2006 · 06/11/2024 15:44

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:42

it's really not. What majority do you think Labour have exactly?

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The Labour Party have 411 seats! That's massive. Who is going to force them into an early election?

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:43

Almostwelsh · 06/11/2024 15:27

The conservatives have allowed loads of immigration, they like immigration - it provides cheap workers for their businesses.

Exactly. By contrast, it is Labour that is doing something concrete to deal with those exploiting immigrants through small boat trafficking. The Tories and Reform would be rash to assume that they can rely on this issue to get them back into office. They might have to try to come up with some real policies for actually governing the country for once.

Original poster

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:43

ttcat37 · 06/11/2024 15:37

I don’t hate Keir, I really like him. He’s the best leader we’ve had for a very long time.

What do you like about him specifically?

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bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:43

PollyPeachum · 06/11/2024 15:41

As a member of the Tory party I hope you are wrong OP. I do not want us to become 'Reform Lite'.

This is all to soon after the election for assumptions and guesses.
I do foresee Labour swinging left though. Led by Trade Union leaders who control so much of the Labour income.
I hope that at future PMQs there will be more emphasis on scrutiny of actions and policies. The Government can be fairly criticised about the Carbon Capture Idea. They are trying to rush into something that is yet to be proved. First they must design, build and operate a laboratory sized process.
Kemi must find definite targets to attack.

She was student politics. Nigel Farage can do that far better.

Original poster

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:42

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:41

The majority is big. Four year term is most likely outcome.

it's really not. What majority do you think Labour have exactly?

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Original poster

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:42

LarkspurLane · 06/11/2024 15:38

So what is different about Kemi?

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She hasn't been given the time to prove herself good or bad yet. There has to be some fire to be baptised in. Todays PMQ for example

OP posts:

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:41

The majority is big. Four year term is most likely outcome.

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:41

lovelysunshine22 · 06/11/2024 15:29

I hate Keir! Odious hypocrite...ive met him irl as well.

He was incredibly kind to someone I know, going out of his way to help him, all in a very quiet, understated way.

PollyPeachum · 06/11/2024 15:41

As a member of the Tory party I hope you are wrong OP. I do not want us to become 'Reform Lite'.

This is all to soon after the election for assumptions and guesses.
I do foresee Labour swinging left though. Led by Trade Union leaders who control so much of the Labour income.
I hope that at future PMQs there will be more emphasis on scrutiny of actions and policies. The Government can be fairly criticised about the Carbon Capture Idea. They are trying to rush into something that is yet to be proved. First they must design, build and operate a laboratory sized process.
Kemi must find definite targets to attack.

Original poster

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:41

zoemum2006 · 06/11/2024 15:40

Starmer can afford to be unpopular for a bit as it's ages to the next election.

Let's see where we are in 4 years.

could easily be 2 years or less. Wars, economic collapse, all sorts of things could force an election

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Original poster

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:40

NigelHarmansNewWife · 06/11/2024 15:39

She's been Tory leader for less than a week. Let's at least get some perspective on things before rushing to judgement. From what I've seen of her so far, I think she's pretty awful. A pact with Farage? Ye gads: the stuff of nightmares.

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is that based on your personal politics or your judgement of someone being the leader of the opposition and the tory party?

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zoemum2006 · 06/11/2024 15:40

Starmer can afford to be unpopular for a bit as it's ages to the next election.

Let's see where we are in 4 years.

NigelHarmansNewWife · 06/11/2024 15:39

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:00

Not quite true - more that the right tends to act like a pack, if the leader is strong and successful they rally round, if they show weakness they get eaten.
So far, Kemi has been pretty damned strong.

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She's been Tory leader for less than a week. Let's at least get some perspective on things before rushing to judgement. From what I've seen of her so far, I think she's pretty awful. A pact with Farage? Ye gads: the stuff of nightmares.

flipdiddle81 · 06/11/2024 15:39

Reform voter OP?

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:39

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:36

I think it is inevitable that conservative will win the next election. Remember that historically Labour have only once served two terms,.

Where are you getting that from? MacDonald's and Attlee's governments were both elected twice in succession, Wilson's was elected twice in succession for two separate periods, and under Blair and Brown they served three terms.

Yes that’s correct - don’t know where this historic illiteracy comes from

LarkspurLane · 06/11/2024 15:38

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:34

I'd say they only became weak after a baptism of fire in the real world, and then they were swiftly-ish removed

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So what is different about Kemi?

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:38

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:00

Not quite true - more that the right tends to act like a pack, if the leader is strong and successful they rally round, if they show weakness they get eaten.
So far, Kemi has been pretty damned strong.

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For five days? Isn't it a tad early to make that judgment? It's not like she's actually been tested with anything actually requiring strength.

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:38

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:34

likely inevitable if she does not deliver yes

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Part of her job is to beat and destroy Reform. This is barely mentioned but she will need to to win. I believe it is the thing that does her leadership in. Because Nigel Farage has strongly affected every Conservative leader for the last 15 years. I don’t see her being different. She just has a much worse wicket and a party that is divided.

ttcat37 · 06/11/2024 15:37

I don’t hate Keir, I really like him. He’s the best leader we’ve had for a very long time.

GoldenPheasant · 06/11/2024 15:36

I think it is inevitable that conservative will win the next election. Remember that historically Labour have only once served two terms,.

Where are you getting that from? MacDonald's and Attlee's governments were both elected twice in succession, Wilson's was elected twice in succession for two separate periods, and under Blair and Brown they served three terms.