Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

It’s not looking good for Keir right now….Yougov poling numbers so nothing right or left wing hopefully 😂

100% this. There's little chance that KB will appeal to the majority of Tory voters, never mind the general electorate. She's fairly unpopular - in politic terms - in the wider world.

It's actually very unusual for a party to change leader mid-term when they are not in power. I think the Tories have only done it once (IDS) and I'm not sure Labour have ever done it.

Assuming you mean "without the previous leader having just lost a general election" then I would add Margaret Thatcher replacing Ted Heath, who wanted to stay on after losing in 1974 (and never forgave Thatcher for replacing him).

It's easier for the Tories to change leader because they only need 15% of MPs to write to the chair of the 1922 Committee to ask for a vote of confidence in the leaded, which at the moment means just 19 people. So the possibility of what the Australians call "a spill" is built into the constitution of the party.

I'm not sure what has to happen for the Labour party to get rid of its leader without that person having resigned. In 2016 81% of the 212 Labour MPs voted for a no-confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn and he went on to lead the party in two general elections, so being leader certainly doesn't require commanding the admiration of even the slimmest majority of the party's MPs.

On that basis I think Starmer can probably stay around as long as he wants to. He's 62 and I doubt if he plans to serve two full five-year terms. Badenoch will last until the backbenchers get tired of her. I'm guessing that she probably will make it to the next general election as there's not exactly a wealth of talented people likely to mount a coup against her. (One concern I have for her leadership is that the unreconstructed racists who stuck with the Tories may well make the jump to the right, and this may affect polling. There's already plenty of unpleasant comments on right-wing social media about her origins.)

I doubt Kemi will last very long.

Why would Labour get rid of KS? He got them elected with a huge majority after 14 years in opposition.

He only appears unpopular because we've got a rabid pro Tory press which fortunately has a dwindling readership and influence.

Most people are pleased he stuck to his pledges not to raise income tax and NI for employees and he's promised to reform the NHS.

I hope Kemi Badenoch holds him to account when it comes to women's rights (i.e. not trans gender rights) but I'm also confident she'll ensure the Tories are in opposition after the next general election.

@BIossomtoes

"Add in enthusiasm amongst younger voters for left leaning parties including the Greens and traditional Tory voters dying and not being replaced and they’ve got a mountain to climb. I don’t think they’ve got anyone capable of doing it."

I agree that there is enthusiasm amongst younger female voters for left leaning parties but from observations on the French and US elections there is enthusiasm amongst younger male voters for right leaning parties.

The bookies don't rate her chances.
https://www.racingpost.com/sport/special-events/politics/latest-politics-odds-and-betting-news-ayBho2U1ZFIQ/

She's unelectable.

I wondered that myself. Maybe @Papyrophile will come back and tell us.

The Tory party desperately needs a unifying leader. It’s going to be fighting on two disparate fronts at the next election to regain the voters who moved to Reform and those who went to the Libdems or even Labour. That’s virtually impossible. Add in enthusiasm amongst younger voters for left leaning parties including the Greens and traditional Tory voters dying and not being replaced and they’ve got a mountain to climb. I don’t think they’ve got anyone capable of doing it.

Which option are we mean to pick? YABU or YANBU?

Kemi will say something offensive and her positiin will become untenable.

Some of the big Tory players are slinking into the background so they can return like knights in shining armour when the proverbial hits the fan with Kemi. I don’t think we’ve too long to wait.

It won't be that easy. The last Tory government were so awful that as time goes on more scandals will emerge. I doubt that anyone who was a government minister will still be an MP come the next GE.

She is not popular with the parliamentary party. She has a habit of shooting her mouth off and pissing people off. The Tory party announced their new rules for VONC but even that won't be enough to save her.

She represents a shift to the right, but she'll never out Reform the Reform Party who have probably irrevocably split the right wing vote in the UK.

The Tory Party hasn't learnt any lessons from their catastrophic loss in the last GE. Until that happens, there is no future for them.

Popularity polls don't mean a thing atm. We have a new government. They are going to be the government for the whole parliamentary term. They're doing all the unpopular stuff now giving plenty of time for their policies to kick in and people to feel the benefits by the next GE.

I think that of the two, Keir is under more pressure, simply on account of being PM. Leaders normally resign after an election defeat. It's actually very unusual for a party to change leader mid-term when they are not in power. I think the Tories have only done it once (IDS) and I'm not sure Labour have ever done it. Therefore, Kemi will probably still be in post come the next GE.

Kemi's first test will be in May 2025 at the local county elections. They currently control 18 of the 21 county councils up for grabs and seven of the ten unitary authorities. A good showing there will help cement her position.

S what makes you think Kemi will be any different? Isn't she going to spend thr next 4 years on the sidelines criticising?

This. The party as usual messed up with their infighting and game playing.
Cleverley would have been far better and had experience.

Also so many have now left that forming a strong shadow cabinet is going to be a challenge.

Kemi wrote that this is the problem with the current situation in her manifesto essay.

"Due to ever-present, unfair power structures we need a constant focus on economic and social redistribution to support the ‘marginalised’, the ‘oppressed’, ‘victims’ and ‘the vulnerable’ – including the poor, but also certain group identities, (e.g. women, LGBT people, ethnic or religious minorities, the disabled or neuro-diverse, and migrants) as well as the natural world itself."

She sits firmly in the everyone for themselves bucket - sink or swim. She includes women in her bucket so god knows why anyone thinks she is positive for women's rights.

We can but only hope she isn't.

nor starmer & reeves.

theyre all a complete shit show & Ed need FAR better options.

Well, looking at the direction of the popularity polls, Starmer isn't exactly winning the approval of the people who lent him a vote as the least worst option.

I think Badenoch has a fairly easy job here. It looks very comfortable to sit in opposition carrying on as though you had all the answers but you couldn't possibly lay them out in case the government nicks all your best ideas. I mean, that's the script, right?

Kemi Badenoch is awful. She won’t be leader of the Tory party in two years, they will be in a much bigger mess then than they are now.

I think with the increases in public spending in the mid term people will start to see reminders of what the country was like when it worked better, which will pull Kier back up. Ultimately Kier has built his team of MPs, whereas Kemi only has half that have the same ideology as her and of those 50% wanted the other guy.

I like her as is. Not just due to the chromosomes ;

I don't mind RD though

Very much doubt Kemi will still be Leader in two years, let alone five.. they all hate each other deeply and are probably already plotting against her.

There is no way kemi is a woman's woman! The bar needs to be higher than xx chromosomes.
But I'll take your feedback and say ok give me Rory Stewart Vs Rosie Duffield or even Jess Phillips