Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

Oooh more data. It’ll be interesting what the public make of her, she only has 60% recognition according to the yougov poll.

It was pretty good just after GE but Labour was high, that lead has gone

You forgot this one!

Keir has never had particularly high personal popularity ratings. This was mentioned during the election quite a bit. It didn't stop him winning a huge majority. If people see improvements in the NHS and schools etc, the question of his charisma etc will become even more irrelevant. And if Kemi keeps on spouting stuff about maternity leave being too generous etc etc I can't see her popularity increasing much.

I think it’s his unpopularity with the electorate that will make it difficult for him. But I would agree he’s been extremely savvy with negotiating Labour’s internal politics. So who knows.

Think it’ll be both Kemi and Kier at the next election. Think Kemi will survive Kier.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Kemi_Badenoch

She’s got space to move up or down.

An older person, who was a Tory voter but is now a member of the Lib Dems told me that the average age of a Conservative member is 70+ so I don't know how the party can survive let alone Kemi. This person is from the home counties where the Conservatives had won for decades but then those older voters like him voted for Lib Dems as The Tories got it all wrong moving to their right of right wing and leaving EU of course!

@KTheGrey Rachel Reeves said during the budget speech that the covid corruption commissioner will be appointed shortly.

No idea why anyone would think someone who has been leader for 4 years, built a strong team around him, strengthened his position by removing several opponents and won a huge landslide for his party is in a more tenuous position than someone who has just won a slim victory on a relatively low turnout, is inexperienced and is considered rude by her own supporters.

Unless something entirely unforeseen happens Keir will lead Labour into the next general election and if the country is in a better state than it is now in terms of public services, which is clearly their priority, they'll win. Especially if Kemi is still in the role and is arguing against funding these services.

It seems hard to imagine any bigger scandals emerging - the Tories did all they did in plain view, for one thing, with total indifference to its legality, and also this government show little interest so far. I think they may be either too busy with their budget or their own freeloading embarrassments, or just inclined to let it go. I want every penny back from the people who profiteered from Covid, but KS wants to imprison misbehaving rioters and release prisoners (but only male ones? anybody know how many women were early released?) early and he wins because he is PM.

I'm not sure. They've managed to eviscerate their lead in just over 100 days and a GE that far away, they could just have the open goal set up by then.

She absolutely is extreme right wing - as close to Trump as you could wish for.

Hopefully!

.

Kemi is a fascist - no thanks. Kiers' steady, not setting the world on fire but at least has morals - he has a long road to travel still. I suppose the voting at the next election will show how far to the right this country is willing to go, all the talk of 'be kind' doesn't quite tally with the selfishness of far right politics.

I think Labour will win the next election, sadly, and then they will absolutely go to town on pensions and income tax. No taxing more for the big corps or the ultra rich. Just more raids of people's savings to prop up the dying NHS and placate the unions.

The only thing they won't have is the goodwill of the people and the belief that they were going to tax those "with the broadest shoulders", as we now know that means small businesses and farmers.

Probably just weren't confident enough at the time of going to press that the letters wouldn't have already gone to the 1922 committee.

KB is not extreme right wing.

He has got a solid majority. He doesn't need to be popular now. He needs to make the "unpopular decisions". He is investing his political capital now with the hope that the return comes before the next election. The test will be whether it works of or not, which it is too early to tell at the moment.

Maybe the 'rabid Tory press', charged with the demise in popularity of Starmer, didn't get the memo?

The Mail on Sunday, the Sunday Express and the Sun on Sunday aren't running Kemi's win on the front page.

That's not a good sign.

True and the real test is closer to five years from now unless one of them becomes so unpopular their own party ousts then before then (😂 cause we’ve been down that road a number of times from both parties). Normally there is a bump when someone is elected but Keir is fairing lower than he should be at this point.

It's fairly meaningless tbh, three months into government after 15 years of Tory rule and a few days post-budget.

Opinion polls are meaningless now.

I think any party having its first black woman leader is great for the UK, so I congratulate Kemi Badenoch and the Tories on that.
But as a leader personality I don’t think KB works as a unifier. I agree that she is likely to say something outrageous because she will be chasing back the Reform vote. And then the Tories will turn on her.

Moderate centre ground Tories who feel politically homeless since Boris expelled the moderates over Brexit in 2019, will still feel the same. They won’t return to the party under KB. Extreme right wingers have got Reform to vote for now. So the overall right wing vote will remain split. Starmer as a centrist left winger can afford to be relatively a bit unpopular for a bit.

And as Guido Fawkes reports, this was the lowest turnout of Tory members’ votes cast in the last few years. So presumably a good chunk of the membership didn’t much like either of the candidates. That’s not a great starting place for KB. Especially since Tory members must be fed up and desperate for any leader that will stick, after today getting their fifth party leader in the past five years. Since 2019, they’ve had Theresa, Boris, Liz, Rishi, now Kemi.

‘120 days after the election Kemi has survived the MP rounds and taken the member vote. The long slog of actual opposition begins…

• 72.8% turnout.
• Kemi Badenoch received 53,806 votes
• Robert Jenrick received 41,388 votes
• There were 655 rejected ballots.
• 66,288 electors voted online and 29,621 electors voted by post.
• Badenoch 57%, Jenrick 43%. A decent margin…

• 2005: 78%
• 2019: 87%
• 2022: 82%