Taking bets... Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch?

So you are saying in 2011 Starmer pushed for harsh sentencing (even though DPP does not make decisions on the sentences of individuals) but Cameron (rightly) had nothing to do with the outcome of the prosecutions?

Yet in 2024 the PM suddenly has the the power to interfere with the judicial system? And the judicial system just rolls over and does the PM's bidding? Including the current DPP, (who was selected by a Tory MP).

Oookay.

4 1/2 years is a veeeery long time in politics.

Sure but I don’t think that this quite takes into consideration that people didn’t always vote Labour. A lot of people voted not Tory. A lot can happen in five years time…..

Um … no, I think I mean he pushed for the same result from a different position of power in both cases.

Assault and arson are serious in any circumstances, but six months for nicking (‘looting’) a bottle of water from Lidl is a poor use of public money imo.

Thanks. I’d watch it if it were any other presenter. Laura K is just the worst.

The overton window has clearly shifted massively if Badenoch is a facist extreme right winger. This kind of hyperbole is slightly hysterical.

Unfortunately I’ve already shared it three times so can’t do it again

Why not? The link might be behind a paywall, so you might not be able to share a free version, but some on here have subscriptions?

Rachel Reeves on BBC now with Laura k - Kemi Badenoch to follow.

Yes I remember 2011 and KS really hasn’t updated as the years have gone by, has he?

Well he was DPP in 2011 and he is not now. So I think what you really mean is the judicial system consistently treats rioters harshly.

No, I know you didn't @EasternStandard . I just meant that the polls are irrelevant now as the electorate don't get a say for years. The only people who could act on the polls are MPs, who are highly unlikely to do so.

Yeah I don’t know. I’m not far right in the least and tend to hug the centre. I think it’s good that Labour have a plan I’m just not sure it’s the right plan for economic growth but time wilL tell. Small businesses will definately and there should have been better levels - as an example caps, NI and tax only increasing on companies with more than 10 employees for example. Yes I understand this would have meant more zero hours contracts and under the table etc. But this will hurt working class people not just help them. Feels a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Unfortunately for me having morals isn’t taking money for free clothes, free glasses, free clothes for the wife, free tickets, free football hospitality. Yeah I know, the comeback will be ‘oh but the Tories’ and you would be right, but I am taking about our current prime minister who ran on morals and frankly has let himself down. I’m sure it’s all above board but again we are talking about morals not legality. Will this guide my vote? No, but it’s when they bend the rules when no one is watching (because no he didn’t have to declare as leader of the opposition) that feels like a slippery slope and leads back to the feeling that all politicians are essentially the same but varying degrees of morally bankrupt.

If only the Tories limited their merry-go-round of leaders to the years when they are not in government.

Unfortunately I’ve already shared it three times so can’t do it again.

This is a copy from the last two paragraphs which are a bit desperate, channelling the Big Bang lol. A crash and burn event like the Truss mini-budget is
one thing but a quiet quitting is a very bad thing for the UK and they know it.
^^
This process involves detailed, often painstaking work. For that reason, it is not yet ready to be included in the OBR’s forecast for growth. However, we should be optimistic about the potential. A “big build” could become as transformative for working people as the Big Bang was for the City of London in the 1980s.
This government is determined to make the UK one of the best places to invest and do business, not just in Europe but the world. Only by working in partnership with the private sector can we deliver change, fix the NHS, rebuild Britain and make good on our promise of a decade of national renewal.

Those who think Kemi will be toast soon need to factor in the recent 1922 rule change. It now requires a third of MPs to bring about a confidence vote. Shifted from 15%. That means 41 MPs instead of 19. That gives her much more leeway in opposition. She doesn't need eyes in the back of her head. Also, when she sticks the boot in on gender issues, she can draw blood from Keir but Wes has already shifted position on this to come up smelling of roses. I think Wes will in due course succeed Keir. However, the optics of Labour having another white male as the Tories win all the diversity plaudits aren't great.

It's Keir. It's a longtime to the next election. And Keir doesn't really mind about being unpopular now. Long time to go.

Some of the opinions on this thread are a bit bat shit - I think you’ve imagined somehow that votes of no confidence on a sitting prime minister are a common occurrence after the Johnson/Truss/May shit show. They aren’t, and it’s beyond unlikely that it’ll happen to Kier Starmer in the short or medium term given he’s just won a landslide election.

Kemi Badenoch however is an unelectable loon - she has absolutely zero chance of winning a general election and presumably the majority of Tory MPs know this. There was a merry-go-round of Tory leaders during the Tony Blair years, of course it’s going to happen again.

That article was from day 2. Since then the gilt markets are on the slide.
Here’s a Reuters article that covers it and is not behind the FT firewall.

www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-gilt-market-faces-worst-week-year-budget-rattles-investors-2024-11-01/

Kemi. Keir's in it for the long haul.

Yes, the whole justice system is a mess and it would not have been better if another government had done it. So what? It doesn’t account for the issues around early release or the lack of consideration given to the women’s estate - and I will give KS’s government this, they are looking into the issues around women’s imprisonment. They will have to retrain the police as well though, so that will take a few years to work through.

Yes I remember 2011 and KS really hasn’t updated as the years have gone by, has he?

The markets have recovered.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/markets-react-on-second-open-after-budget-as-traders-concerned-over-some-announcements-13245812

Do you have a link please?

Where have I posted that anyone in Labour are going to make a move? You must be thinking of another poster

My first post on here was that Starmer would still be in place for the GE regardless of ratings

Kier Starmer wrote an opinion piece in the FT yesterday saying it’s going to be okay, exactly because the markets are starting to go against UK PLC after the budget. It’s not a shock reaction like Liz Truss mini-budget.

Here in MN that might be fine (“fuck the markets”) but it’s bad for the Starmer project. Increased borrowing and increased borrowing costs mean their funded projects have just got a lot more expensive. Hence the anguished cries to the FT readers who actually understand the economy unlike the government.

But neither Kemi or Jenrick were the answer.

The Tories would have had to have done the same re: early release. Everyone knows that.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/25/scheme-release-prisoners-early-extended-indefinitely-england-wales

As for imprisoning rioters, do you not know what happened in 2011?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06099/

It doesn't matter though, does it? What happens in the country between now and the election will make all the difference. No one in the party is going to make a move against him any time soon - why on earth would they? @EasternStandard