Another budget one. Sorry.

Why are you surprised? 20% increase = 2K ish for rest of year. Many parents can't afford it. We said that would happen, it was a foreseeable consequence of bringing the policy in mid-year.
They aren't finding places in many instances so LAs are being forced to shoehorn them in

Virtually everyone is going to feel the effect of this budget whether it hits their payslip or not.

Every business or service you use will put their prices up, whether that’s the vet you take your dog to or the corner shop where you buy your bread.

Many small independent shops, cafes, pubs and service providers will close.

Unemployment will rise

Cost of living will continue to rise.

You know who it won’t impact? The wealthy. Ask yourself why a Labour government isn’t taxing the rich appropriately?

I am surprised that many are moving mid year. Where are they finding spaces?

Not bad for me. I work for a University. I live only of my wage.
Investment in NHS will have a big impact on my family, as one is waitig for two major surgeries, well overdue, other for physio and diagnosis and I have conditions that need monitoring. Last two, we have issues and lengthy waits getting appointments. The family member waiting for surgery cannot currently walk, yet nothing is been done. This will remove them from the working world till they get the first surgery, more than 6 months overdue.
So many people are in this situation. It needs to change, now.

The fact they tax education but leave gambling at current levels says everything

Because they underestimated the number of pupils leaving Indy sector. IFS said proper detailed consultation was required, Labour refused so they use an overly optimistic figure. I have got 1000s of examples of parents pulling their kids out. 10% in DDs year group so far this year.

Sorry, I think you may not have looked at the link I posted. It is the figures supporting the budget. The expected revenue take into account the pupils projected to leave the sector (as explained in the notes). You are double counting by deducting them again.

I'm self-employed & working in an industry that's already in a dire state (60 per cent of people out of work). I've been sofa surfing for 18 months trying to save money but still can't afford anywhere to live. The prices of things going up doesn't really bother me because funnily enough, when you don't have anywhere to live you can't really buy stuff anyway. If restaurant prices go up I'd spend a bit more money on eating out (necessary when you don't have a kitchen!) but it wouldn't make any real difference to me. Ditto if farm shop prices do - the weird thing about not being able to afford housing is that you could spend all your income on food if necessary.

I think the people criticising this budget are people with something to lose, and they have no idea how many people out there don't have a mortgage or buy stuff, live in an economy that offers them absolutely nothing, and really don't have anything to lose.

Whether this budget contributes to economic growth is something that as someone with two degrees in economics, I realise doesn't matter in the slightest. Our economy has been growing for most of my lifetime, and both housing affordability and availability of actual non-upf food, probably the two things that really matter most to people's ability to have a good life, have worsened over that time, so why on earth would we want more of the same?

For many small businesses margins are tight already. Some may go under, others will survive but the majority of the extra cost will be passed on to the employees (OBR)

Why is it good that the employee ends up impacted, they meet the definition of working person do they not?

OBR also discount behaviour change. The reduced numbers entering as well as those leaving. It is already happening on an anecdotal basis.
1.5 billion initial figure
One fifth pupils now exempt = 1.2 billion
10% leave = takes you well under 1 billion
Cost to state sector of now educating those kids = 375,000,000
Possible income = 500,000,000 however that's not taking into account the numbers just entering indy sector at natural break points ie Yr 5/7/11/13

This is a policy of diminishing return. Each year it will bring in less money as parents change their behaviour.
Easy to see how in 2-3 years it will bring in £0.

Ha well, unfortunately, I am going to listen to the OBR. Also because the margins in the projections are not exactly narrow - at least c. £1.5 bn estimated to be raised pa vs at most £275 m estimated increased cost for the state sector. Even if one or both of these estimates is out, it is hard to see how they could be so wrong that in fact the cost to the state sector will outweigh the revenue brought in. I get that £1bn is not that much in the scheme of things, but it is still something.

EasternStandard · Today 12:33

MrsSkylerWhite · Today 11:57
fromdownwest
When your breakfast at the local cafe goes up by 10%, or the quote for your new bathroom is 10% higher, then maybe you will understand that we are all impacted by putting the burden on business.
Seriously, if you can afford breakfast in cafes, you can afford a 10% increase.
Plumbing prices have risen significantly since Brexit 🤷‍♀️
**
People don't seem to be joining stuff up with this who needs cafes, who need pubs, hairdressers type posting
Do you not know anyone employed by a business like this?

Not at all, completely get that but most people can’t afford to eat breakfast in cafes, spend evenings in pubs, etc. for most, it’s an occasional treat.
Regular customers are their bread and butter (sorry 🥴) and most will be able to absorb 10% if they currently partake without much thought. Likewise, hairdressers, nail treatments, etc. anyone who would have to worry about 10% once a month or whatever is unlikely to be paying for such luxuries now.

My parents have lunch at an NT cafe most days. 10% will be neither here nor there for them.

The only person I know employed by a small business is a nursery worker, at a private nursery on the NW coast. They are already paying above NMW for levels 2 and 3 and offering completely free childcare, an huge benefit, because they can’t recruit.

Our youngest is currently in hospitality, working for a large corporate. It can easily absorb the increase.

And anyone seriously thinking the money will get to frontline public services are mistaken - most of it will go to fund public sector pay rises and take in pensions ! Something like for every £100 given to nhs, £90 goes to pensions and salary and only £10 to frontline. ( people can look this up themselves )

giving money with NO demands for major reforms and restructuring is simply waste of money.

You need to look at the recent video statement by IFS
OBR just parroted IFS initial report.

twistyizzy I am not sure where you are getting your information but the OBR has certainly forecast a net uplift in revenue from VAT on school fees, see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-on-private-school-fees/applying-vat-to-private-school-fees#summary-of-impacts - see the section on 'economic impact'
"Alongside the revenue raised, this policy will result in some additional costs on state schools due to pupil moves. Based on average 2024 to 2025 per-pupil spending in England, the government expects the revenue costs of pupils entering the state sector as a result of the VAT policy across the UK to steadily increase to a peak of around £270 million per annum after several years.
Overall, this means that expected revenue will substantially outweigh additional cost pressures."

The last item from the IFS website I can find on VAT on school fees is this https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending which also projects significant net benefit even if 7% of indy students go state as a result of the policy.

For those saying they’re not impacted negatively- you will be when inflation goes up, interest rates go up, mortgage rates go up, price of goods /services go up as business try to cover the massive cost increases.

the economy is going to be stagnant and I expect we’ll start to see the full impact with job losses as businesses cut back

fcsts on growth already being revised downward and delays to interest rate cuts as a result. Mortgage lenders already pulling some products

but hey, bloated public sector protected so that’s alright then

So you do believe private education adds value to society? Yet you simultaneously believe private education should be minimised through taxation?

(think you may have tied yourself in something of an ideological knot there!)

People don't seem to be joining stuff up with this who needs cafes, who need pubs, hairdressers type posting

Do you not know anyone employed by a business like this?

VAT isn't a luxury tax.
If it were then designer kids clothes would be VAT added because there are cheaper alternatives available

Labour have made UK the first country in Europe to tax education.

No that's what they initially said, before exemptions were applied and when % moving looked smaller. They are now on record saying it won't bring much/any money in. Labour ignored that update.
They have now exempted one fifth of pupils and the OBR statement doesn't take into account the cost of the state now having to pay for the education of indy kids as they move out of indy sector.
50,000 leaving costs the state £375,000,000 per year. That isn't factored into the calculations

That's because they need to be able to pay for their breakfasts 😜

🤣

Plumbing prices have risen significantly since Brexit 🤷‍♀️

That's because they need to be able to pay for their breakfasts 😜

Of course the grammar school results are good, they are a selective school.

But if you think that the tens of thousands of pounds difference in funding per pupil don't make any difference to the education on offer, one wonders what private school parents are paying for in the first place.

IFS has said VAT on school fees will raise £1bn pa and 7% of kids joining state sector cost £300m pa so will be a net benefit? Also I do personally think that private school is a luxury which it makes sense in principle to tax. I do appreciate it will be hard for children to switch schools. But as an academy trustee of some schools serving some v deprived communities, I still find it hard to see those who can no longer afford private schools as victims in the big picture.

The VAT policy is ridiculous against the backdrop of this budget anyway, they are using vast amount so tax rises and debt to fund it all so they could drop the damaging policy.