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Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

683 replies

Cartwrightandson · 26/10/2024 19:29

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

OP posts:
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cardibach · 01/11/2024 19:43

Horseracingbuddy · 01/11/2024 19:39

I don't think that's right, the Gov believe it will affect 25% of Farms but the NFU think the figure is closer to 50%.

The NFU represent the massive conglomerates disproportionately. I’ll take the official figures myself.

lemonmeringueno3 · 01/11/2024 19:40

I can't think of a single group, when asked to pay more tax, that wouldn't rally or protest.

As night follows day, the week after any budget is full of the people being asked to pay more bitching about being asked to pay more, explaining why they shouldn't have to and why it's unfair, and the opposition seizing their moment of course. This time business is being hit so there'll be big money thrown at fighting it I suppose.

Horseracingbuddy · 01/11/2024 19:39

cardibach · 01/11/2024 19:29

Farms have 10 years to pay IHT. And 85% won’t be affected anyway.

I don't think that's right, the Gov believe it will affect 25% of Farms but the NFU think the figure is closer to 50%.

EasternStandard · 01/11/2024 19:33

I'm sure the unaffected on here will say I'm fine, it's someone else impacted but there will be a rally. Maybe they'll stick up for each other regardless.

The National Farmers Union is to hold a major Westminster rally next month after Rachel Reeves revoked farmland's exemption from inheritance tax (IHT).

And the Country Land and Business Association said the move, from April 2026, would hit 70,000 farms – calling it 'nothing short of a betrayal' which would 'jeopardise the future of rural businesses'.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 19:29

EasternStandard · 01/11/2024 19:23

It looks like farmers are going to protest so obviously it's not just here on mn, they are actually concerned

VAT is obviously a bigger hit in one year, surely you can see that if someone increases your mortgage or rent over time it's different to 20% in one go.

But really I think it's madness to go for small businesses, they are a major part of the economy and what Labour need is growth.

Farms have 10 years to pay IHT. And 85% won’t be affected anyway.

EasternStandard · 01/11/2024 19:23

lemonmeringueno3 · 31/10/2024 18:57

The money has to be raised though doesn't it?

Or are we all delighted with how things are, how the tories have governed for 14 years?

Yes, business will shoulder the biggest burden.

Yes, some of that will be felt by us as employees and as consumers. It is inevitable if we want to end austerity and try something different because it didn't work.

I didn't see many on mn worried about farmers over the past 14 years when the BPS was cut, impact of Brexit, 15000 hectares lost to development.

I didn't see any legal action against private schools who have consistently increased fees by more than inflation, but apparently the VAT will be crippling to parents and schools will close.

It looks like farmers are going to protest so obviously it's not just here on mn, they are actually concerned

VAT is obviously a bigger hit in one year, surely you can see that if someone increases your mortgage or rent over time it's different to 20% in one go.

But really I think it's madness to go for small businesses, they are a major part of the economy and what Labour need is growth.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 19:20

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:58

It's fine to be opposed to those things IF the state offering is good enough. It isn't.

This budget is about penalising those who have the audacity to aim a bit higher.

Private school parents - to pay more VAT.
Small businesses - to pay more NI.
First time buyers - to pay SD from 125k

That's just for starters. Exactly how is any of this 'progress'?

That’s not the threshold for first time buyers.

cardibach · 01/11/2024 19:20

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:40

The stamp duty change is the big one. Switching it to being a requirement at £125,000 rather than £249,000 will put the kibosh on so many people being able to get on the property ladder, when it's hard enough already. Such a bad move.

It’s much higher for first time buyers.

EverythingAllatOnceAllTheTime · 01/11/2024 06:31

Stickinthemuddle · 31/10/2024 22:05

Pp has a point, if we stopped subsidising children born into poverty or older people with no pension then they wouldn’t survive as long draining the NHS.

Perhaps the able bodied could engage in some sort of feudal servitude for those ~lucky~ clever enough to have ~inherited~ bought large properties

How about properly punishing feckless parents who fail to take financial responsibility for their offspring.

That would be a start.

Stickinthemuddle · 31/10/2024 22:05

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 16:04

We don’t live in a socialist or comunist society if you wish this, there is plenty of places you can live?

Pp has a point, if we stopped subsidising children born into poverty or older people with no pension then they wouldn’t survive as long draining the NHS.

Perhaps the able bodied could engage in some sort of feudal servitude for those ~lucky~ clever enough to have ~inherited~ bought large properties

lemonmeringueno3 · 31/10/2024 19:09

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 18:11

Out of curiosity, how much extra is the nhs going to habe to pay out in the national insurance increase, the min wage increase, assume auxiliary staff on that type of wage, and doctor and nurse increases. How much of the money now allocated will just pay for all of that.

The NHS Confederation has issued a media response to the budget and appears supportive.

lemonmeringueno3 · 31/10/2024 19:02

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 18:11

Out of curiosity, how much extra is the nhs going to habe to pay out in the national insurance increase, the min wage increase, assume auxiliary staff on that type of wage, and doctor and nurse increases. How much of the money now allocated will just pay for all of that.

The treasury has said it has set aside funding to protect the public sector - including NHS - from the NI increase. It is not clear whether this includes GP practices.

lemonmeringueno3 · 31/10/2024 18:57

The money has to be raised though doesn't it?

Or are we all delighted with how things are, how the tories have governed for 14 years?

Yes, business will shoulder the biggest burden.

Yes, some of that will be felt by us as employees and as consumers. It is inevitable if we want to end austerity and try something different because it didn't work.

I didn't see many on mn worried about farmers over the past 14 years when the BPS was cut, impact of Brexit, 15000 hectares lost to development.

I didn't see any legal action against private schools who have consistently increased fees by more than inflation, but apparently the VAT will be crippling to parents and schools will close.

cardibach · 31/10/2024 18:24

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 18:11

Out of curiosity, how much extra is the nhs going to habe to pay out in the national insurance increase, the min wage increase, assume auxiliary staff on that type of wage, and doctor and nurse increases. How much of the money now allocated will just pay for all of that.

Wait for the NHS plan which follows the review and the allocation of funds.

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 18:11

Out of curiosity, how much extra is the nhs going to habe to pay out in the national insurance increase, the min wage increase, assume auxiliary staff on that type of wage, and doctor and nurse increases. How much of the money now allocated will just pay for all of that.

cardibach · 31/10/2024 17:27

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 16:04

We don’t live in a socialist or comunist society if you wish this, there is plenty of places you can live?

We don’t live in an entirely market led society either. There aren’t too many around for you to choose, though, for fairly obvious reasons.

Edit: there aren’t that many socialist or communist ones either, in fairness. Lots of democratic socialist and mixed-but-leaning-towards-socially-driven ones.

Dragonflysparkles · 31/10/2024 16:04

Evilartsgrad · 31/10/2024 14:18

Well at least you're honest about your colossal selfishness and greed.
God forbid the undeserving povs get any help, you need a new Merc.
No such thing as society, I'm all right Jack.

Edited

We don’t live in a socialist or comunist society if you wish this, there is plenty of places you can live?

Evilartsgrad · 31/10/2024 14:18

GhosterPoster · 30/10/2024 18:40

Where’s the free choice for higher earners not to pay for lower earners? For council tax discount, for UC, for free school meals, for childcare contributions?

There’s no free choice in the UK, you are correct in that regard.

Well at least you're honest about your colossal selfishness and greed.
God forbid the undeserving povs get any help, you need a new Merc.
No such thing as society, I'm all right Jack.

EasternStandard · 31/10/2024 11:04

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:47

Exactly. It should be so obvious to people that giving the employer additional costs will just swallow up any potential payrise they're able to give to their employees. So the employees will effectively be paying this hike themselves.

Yep and the OBR have backed this up, I expect employees count as 'working people'

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 11:02

IVFmumoftwo · 30/10/2024 17:54

I think most private school parents will find a way to pay than put their darlings into state.

And good for them if they can!

Honestly, the inverse snobbery on this thread is wild!

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:58

Colourfulduvets · 30/10/2024 17:32

It's the Labour Party!
They are fundamentally opposed to private education and private health care.
Why is that so hard to understand?

It's not about envy, it's about equality.

Both my kids went through the state system in a roughish area and both did really well.

It's fine to be opposed to those things IF the state offering is good enough. It isn't.

This budget is about penalising those who have the audacity to aim a bit higher.

Private school parents - to pay more VAT.
Small businesses - to pay more NI.
First time buyers - to pay SD from 125k

That's just for starters. Exactly how is any of this 'progress'?

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:48

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 31/10/2024 10:41

It’s odd, isn’t it, especially when you best in mind the constant reminders they more affordable housing is needed.

Exactly. Surely no sane person can think this is a good idea...

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:47

EasternStandard · 30/10/2024 16:40

The biggest tax rises since 1993 with businesses to bear the brunt - Sky headline

I get people are happy someone else is paying, it's always nice, but this viable non viable line doesn't help. Many are viable obviously, but if you bring in a big tax hike and some are no longer then it's the policy shrinking the sector. Which isn't great if you want growth.

Exactly. It should be so obvious to people that giving the employer additional costs will just swallow up any potential payrise they're able to give to their employees. So the employees will effectively be paying this hike themselves.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 31/10/2024 10:41

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:40

The stamp duty change is the big one. Switching it to being a requirement at £125,000 rather than £249,000 will put the kibosh on so many people being able to get on the property ladder, when it's hard enough already. Such a bad move.

It’s odd, isn’t it, especially when you best in mind the constant reminders they more affordable housing is needed.

Jumpingthruhoops · 31/10/2024 10:40

EasternStandard · 30/10/2024 16:00

In what way, no extra taxes for you?

I guess it depends what jobs pp do. Or if it's a small business

If they're relying on growth taxing that sector doesn't help bring it about

The stamp duty change is the big one. Switching it to being a requirement at £125,000 rather than £249,000 will put the kibosh on so many people being able to get on the property ladder, when it's hard enough already. Such a bad move.

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