UK fertility rate drops by 18.8% in 12 years

Well then this is good news - as it poorer women in lower social economic areas who have started having fewer kids in last 12 years in UK where as previously it was more educated women in high income areas (which is still happening as well).

This is in many respects what 2 child cap and even austerity wanted to achieve.

The cost of housing is the main issue. Somehow we now need 2 x incomes and still struggle to buy something, rather than the 1 x income of the past. Governments and banks have done this.

@QuietlyConfident @DonnaBanana What scares me far more than not having a state pension is the future cost of services when there are fewer people of working age.

My Dad (86) needs a range of support to live independently-he has a cleaner/light housekeeper, lives in a retirement complex with a manager and a maintenance team. He doesn’t drive now so needs taxis and buses. He has a meal delivery service four times a week to cut down on cooking. With his health conditions, he also needs various medical services.

Obviously he pays for many of these services and the people providing them are under 60. What scares me slightly is how I’ll manage if I make it to 86 (I’m 50) and there are far fewer working-age people. Who knows what these services will cost when there’s a shortage of providers? How will we oldies afford them?!

As I said upthread, what the youth of today need to concentrate on is developing technologies such as driverless cars and buses to plug the human gaps.

It's a bit like the opening scene of Idiocracy. All the feckless or poor people breed like rabbits and expect everyone else to pay for them, while the urban professionals might have 1 or 2 later in life once they've got all their ducks in a row, or might not bother.

They solve the problem of relying on state pension

For example, in developed countries that may be the case but a birth rate of 2.1 in areas of lower survival e.g. Africa, its less likely due to less healthcare availability.

Yep higher mortality rates - less access to heath care in general and contraceptives - less or later urbanisation so vary need of child labour - less educational female population - lots of reasons that have nothing to do with the 18.8 % drop in UK fertility rates in last 12 years.

I think austerity cuts - less good maternity care - and rising prices are problem with UK.

What we'll do to deal with aging population is keep raising retirement age till it hits 70 or beyond - cut pensions in coming decades - keep high immigration rates and if we have any sense look at building more houses and childcare costs - most of which will be unpopularly with all or large sections of the population.

Some countries have tried pronatalist policies and do get slight bumps in fertility rates but do not get back up to replacement level but think Labour recently ruled these out. Lifting the 2 child benefit cap would alleviate childhood poverty and there is some evidence it's increased abortions.

https://www.bpas.org/media/5hejoy24/forced-into-a-corner-the-two-child-limit-and-pregnancy-decision-making-during-the-pandemic.pdf

Between 2016-2019, the number of abortions performed in England and Wales increased by 11.7%, from 185,596 to 208,384. Over this same period, the number of abortions performed to mothers with 2 or more existing children increased 16.4%, while for women with no existing children or one existing child, the numbers increased by 10.3% and 7% respectively.2 This disproportionate increase in the numbers of abortions performed to women with 2 or more children could be linked to the introduction of the policy.

So I'd say first thing would be getting UK governments to see any fertility decreases as an actual problem.

Have you saved enough to pay for all your medical costs between ages 70 and 90?

I think many posters are talking about the general decline happen every where but Sub-Saharan Africa- and not 18.8 % drop in 12 years in UK.

Sky News :UK's fertility rate falling faster than any other G7 nation - with austerity thought to be 'principal factor'

CPP research also found that areas with higher deprivation saw faster falls in rates which "demonstrates the impact of government cuts to social security spending that occurred over that time".
Mr Franklin said that in previous decades falls in fertility rates have been about having "more educated, higher income women".

"This fall since 2010, and since austerity has happened, principally affected the poorer parts of the country."

12 years ago we'd had our kids - I had a master DH had a PhD - we could only afford to do it because we live in affordable pockets in UK and did longer commutes to work. Those pockets have dried up/got more expensive as many on our income did similar - I got priced out of where I grew up - and have in turn contributed to rising prices where I am now.

So while I image (haven't checked) women education levels may have gone up slightly in past 12 years I do know house prices and rents have gone up massively in that time span.

London is emptying out due to costs.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/london-school-closures-falling-pupil-numbers-families-councils-b1135224.html

So totally get what you are saying yes generally rising female education levels do cause a decline in fertility but I don't think it's explaining the 18.8% drop in fertility in last 12 years in UK

As long as we are prepared to axe the old age pension at some point, it’s not a bad thing. There will be more old people and far fewer workers eventually though so don’t expect those workers to be able to support the entire state as it currently stands. You will be more on your own but that’s fine by me as I’ve saved for my own pension.

Being a parent is not just putting blocks in holes. In fact the reward of being a parent is nothing to do with the performance of functional tasks by your toddler, for a start they aren't playing with blocks for a very long time, I am at the discussing politics stage with my eldest and believe me, he is much better informed and read up on the subject than probably 80% of the voting population. You don't have kids if you see growing up as a developmental stage tick box as that would just be a child without love. Having children suits me and my personality as I enjoy reading and I loved fostering that love of reading with them. I have a family that loves music and play instruments so the freedom to share that love with your offspring and putting on performances and plays was something I loved doing but obviously it isn't for everyone. I have a fairly straight job in privacy and IT so it is the contrast that I enjoyed/enjoy.

I wish they wouldn't day the 'fertility' rate when people may well be fertile but choosing not to reproduce, for variety of reasons. 😬

I would love to have had more kids - but no money!

I'm not arguing with you but it is worth adding that 2.1 replacement level is unlikely to be the same across the board.

For example, in developed countries that may be the case but a birth rate of 2.1 in areas of lower survival e.g. Africa, its less likely due to less healthcare availability.

The birthrate is below replacement level everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that it doesn't matter how much money is thrown at women, they're not budging. There isn't a government on Earth that's managed to get the birthrate above replacement level with money alone, and some countries have extremely generous policies.

It's not clear to me whether the issue is that the number of women having babies is the same but they're having fewer of them, or whether the number of women having babies is dropping and/or those that are having them are having fewer. I think that we do need to know this before we start throwing money at the problem. If men being useless is the problem, then money won't fix that. I don't know what will fix that, either, to be fair.

I can't have kids so no amount of financial incentive will work, but if I could, no amount of financial incentive would induce me to have a child as I just don't want one.

Lots of reasons already mentioned
Cost of living
Cost of childcare
The UK generally being quite a hostile place for children

One thing I haven't seen mentioned (might have missed it tbf) is the very negative portrayal of motherhood. I'm 30 this year and for the past decade all I've seen on TV and heard about online and in oerson is how horrible it is to be pregnant, give birth, have babies, have toddlers etc. Only ever about the negatives. For a long time I didnt want kids as I figured yeah doesn't sound great, I think I'll pass probably. My partner really did though so I reexamined and we had one last year and what I've been most surprised by is the joy of it. I've never been happier than when I'm with him.
With a different partner I'd likely never had one. I can't imagine I'm the only one that was influenced by this.

I'd love another or two more but we can't afford it. Maybe one more in a few years.

Haven’t managed to read the whole thread, but can anyone explain why, if there’s such a drop in the birthrate, maternity services are overwhelmed?

Women have more choices.
Medicine is better as well.

The ability to have something to inherit to further improve life chances to some degree.

Because of those 3 things, people don't have 5+ kids like the olden days with an expectation of low survival.

They are leaning into 1 child families with the expectation of pouring everything into that child.

Quality of life. Not just money but time.

Many adults never got on with their siblings and don't feel the need to risk a similar thing happening.

And women get to 30 and have great lives of freedom and comfort and intellectual stimulation and putting blocks in holes over and over an over again just doesn't seem like the way to go.

I would agree it often doesn't look very fun.

Surely parenthood looking zero fun compared to all the other options is the main factor.

Yes but private pensions don't solve the demographic problem. They will also collapse. Plus the basic retirement age will continue to increase.

I think waiting until later in life is the main factor. Not only because of increased likelihood of fertility problems and less time for more than 1-2 pregnancies.. but also because it seems to me that the longer you've been childfree for, the greater amount of comfort and self-indulgence you've built up in your life. And that is hard to comprise or let go of.
If you have children in your early twenties you probably haven't had the income yet to get so comfortable and so used to lifes luxuries. So the going without and sacrifice perhaps doesn't seem so hard.

I’m one of 4 kids, and I’m the only one who has had DC of my own (two).

Brother 1 (45) never really wanted them, ended up marrying someone who already had a child, they thought about having one together but she’s now infertile because of endo, they’re not too bothered as they like their lifestyle as it is.

Brother 2 (39) very shy and socially awkward, only ever had one gf and that was years ago, he seems to prefer cars and cats.

Brother 3 (32) was always very clear that he never wanted children and is now in a LTR with a 45 year old woman who has grown up children, so can’t see it happening.

So if you think that if you go by the old 2.4 children theory, there would have been 8 or 9 children in my family, and there’s just 2.

Some people do actually enjoy being a parent, I'm unsure why it would be so hard to understand.

The quality of available partners...