Would Russia have invaded Ukraine and would the war on Gaza have started if the US had had a stronger president

Trump is basically a useful idiot when it comes to Putin. Putin likes to cause disruption and Trump being in the WH does that. It’s the same for Brexit and everything else he meddles in.

Not convinced Brexit did weaken the EU. It certainly weakened the U.K. but within the EU it largely weakened the anti EU voices.

Failing to deal with Orban on the other hand does show weakness.

Were Putin and Trump not friends. I remember they are. May be another reason Putin would have invaded. If I'm correct.

This person is on twitter all day and very well informed’

😲🤦🏼‍♀️

Well we basically ignored russia attacking Georgia and Crimea so if it’s weak leadership it’s been going on for a while. The Hamas attack came just before the normalisation talks between Saudi and Israel were starting to look very positive so that had more to do with regional politics than anything.

Back to OP rather than the Trump diversion….. I think there is and will be increasing wars as America continues not to get involved. The Balkans will reignite next.

And you can’t really blame them…. they’ve spent gazillions being the worlds policeman just to get shit from everyone about how awful they are, what a disaster they leave, that they are warmongering etc so I think it’s ironic people now whinging that ‘America’ is weak. The world has got what it asked for ….the evil “west” has stopped intervening and isn’t it so much better 🙄

Speaking to a Ukrainian a couple of years ago he said they ere all brought up knowing that Russia would invade at some point, the only question was when.
And unless you're suggesting the US has input into the October 7th atrocities, then I don't think they have anything to do with that. After all, in terms of numbers killed it was similar to 9/11 and not that many people at the time objected to the Gulf war which resulted from that on far looser basis

I don't think Putin would have invaded without Brexit which weakened the EU and led to trump appeasing UK prime minister Johnson. This made Putin think he would have little opposition internationally.

Bidens abandonment of the women of Afghanistan is appalling. This was a legacy of trump's failure there

Yes, the problem with Trump is that he admires dictators and aspires to be like them. I am surprised at the number of people who can't see that a character pathology like that is dangerous. Also, he's thick as mince.

Yes.

A twenty year period of Russian appeasement / ignoring Putin’s previous invasions and wars emboldened him.

Also Trump’s disastrous four year presidency drove USA disengagement with global affairs. He constantly criticised organisations including the United Nations and NATO, and withdrew from parts of the UN. These are organisations America co-founded, dominates and traditionally champions.

Trump’s “America First” doctrine says it all - peace making and stopping wars has zero interest for him.

It’s all about strengthening US borders and concerning himself only about what happens inside those borders. Unless there’s a financial incentive.

Another Trump presidency will be disastrous for peace and embolden more Putins.

Ps Twitter is a rabbit hole of lies and bias, and mostly soundbites - no substance. Someone who spends a lot of time on there is less likely to be well informed!

You're confusing correlation and causation.

Trump also increased tension between Israel and the Palestinians, by moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, despite warnings not to do so. That undid decades of diplomatic agreement.

Yes

America are not seen by the rest of the world as being the all powerful nation to fear as they once were.

Isreal had the US backing from the start and always have a few words from Biden about a ceasefire is meaningless

Not a conspiracy. Look into what Kushner has said on this.

Can't see it. Trump tended to side with Putin, to the point that some speculated that Russia had a hold over him.

Israel is doing what it wants because it can, and no strong words from America could have stopped it.

Russia conducted an open act of war of Russia vs Ukraine as opposed to the pretence of the 2014 war being a Ukrainian civil war by attacking Ukranian shipping in the Kerch Strait during Trumps presidency

‘This person is on twitter all day and very well informed’

🤣🤣🤣

The Ukraine war started in 2014. Much as I like Obama, a stronger US president should have stepped in for Crimea, that caputulation was the trigger for the later incursions. Trump would not have helped in 2022 any more than Biden, but a better president might have done. We run a high risk of all-out war with Russia or capitulation and further escalation by Russia, so a decent US president would be helpful; Trump's threats to reduce Nato funding are extremely concerning in that regard. Blaming any US president or potential US president rather than the aggressor Putin is unfair though, it is the whole world that must work together in this.

Of course the invasion into Israel on 7th October and subsequent war in Gaza were useful to Putin in global distraction terms. That is the unwinnable war, where a US president can only hope to reduce escalation throughout the region. Given that Iran funded the original attacks and yet cannot be directly attacked for it, its easier to see how US responses could have made the situation worse rather than better.

This person is on twitter all day and very well informed

You do realise the two don't necessarily go hand in hand, right?

This is antisemitic bilge. What, because his son in law is Jewish he’s going to turn Gaza into a new Marilago? Absolute conspiracy theorist nonsense.

In the case of Ukraine, Russia was emboldened by the failure of the international community (not just the USA) to act decisively all of the times this century when they did similar things. This goes back at the latest to Georgia's NATO bid in 2006 and the war that Russia (officially) started there in August 2008. But most directly relevant is the way we all responded to the events of 2014 in Ukraine, when Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War.

The world (despite the Budapest Memorandum, which obligated Russia, the UK, and the USA - and by extension China and France - to protect Ukraine from international intervention in return for its giving up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the USSR) treated Russian aggression in Ukraine up until the full invasion on 24 February 2022 as an internal matter rather than international. Some countries in the region did take unilateral action in and from 2014, at least to recognize the war and take in refugees - Poland for example, but even they could not decisively influence the international community or even the EU to act.

In the case of Gaza, no US President of any party could have "stopped Netanyahu". Israel's retaliation was inevitable once the Hamas incursion happened. Israel has said over and over for decades under various governments led by various parties that even if they had NO international support and were completely isolated they would still defend themselves to their utmost ability against what they see as an existential threat.

I guess the question would be whether Hamas would have done what it did if there had been a different US President. Who knows? There's some merit in the expert opinion that Hamas acted when and as it did to scupper the Abraham Accords, which were introduced under Trump (and had bipartisan support and were carried forward under the Biden Administration). But it's a tough sell for me, seeing the feedback in the USA and around the world to what Israel has already done in Gaza, to think that a Republican, or specifically a Trump Presidency would have deterred Hamas. Why would it? Hamas and their handlers expected a huge reaction and they got it; I don't see how it would have been significantly larger if the US President had been someone else/a Republican/Trump.

I think you are parroting a theory placed by the Russians to try to influence the U.S. election.

your friend needs to learn to not fall prey to propaganda on twitter

Not only do I think Russia's 2022 invasion would have happened regardless of who was POTUS at the time, had Trump been in office I think the invasion would have been far more successful. Trump and large sections of his party have been vocally against providing military aide to Ukraine and Trump says he will immediately halt it if re-elected.

Trump is also quite hostile to Europe and NATO, telling the President of the European Commission: "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you" and "By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO".

Trump also seems to openly admire Putin, and famously sided with Putin over the US's own intelligence agencies.

1 What do you mean by “a strong president”?
2 Ukraine was invaded in 2014. Trump only appeased Putin while in power.
3 N Korea probably never been stronger thanks—in part—to Trump’s diplomatic missteps.
4 As other posters note above, Trump’s mess in Iran and China caused significant destabilisation in Middle East.