Just Stop Oil Jailed

@Thulpelly
What do you think their ‘other motivations’ might be?

I think for some people, being a righteous warrior against the world is psychologically seductive. The more people oppose them, the more their virtue shines, in their own self-image. Making their view the boring consensus, by winning hearts and minds, would actually remove that.

You see something similar in the 'sheeple' rhetoric from conspiracy theorists. Others are just too stupid, or too selfish, to care. Not like me.

That partly explains I think why some people seem to switch from far-left to far-right and back. What they really want to be is a radical with a simple answer.

I'm only talking about a small fraction of environmentalists, of course, but it's a very visible bit. And odd that more mainstream environmentalists don't seem to disavow them, which would win some goodwill from the public I think.

Whatever you think about just stop oil those prison sentences are insane. 4 years for 4 of the and 5 for Hallam - for non violent protestors? It's crackers, totally wrong.

@Thulpelly
What do you think their ‘other motivations’ might be?

I think for some people, being a righteous warrior against the world is psychologically seductive. The more people oppose them, the more their virtue shines, in their own self-image. Making their view the boring consensus, by winning hearts and minds, would actually remove that.

You see something similar in the 'sheeple' rhetoric from conspiracy theorists. Others are just too stupid, or too selfish, to care. Not like me.

That partly explains I think why some people seem to switch from far-left to far-right and back. What they really want to be is a radical with a simple answer.

I'm only talking about a small fraction of environmentalists, of course, but it's a very visible bit. And odd that more mainstream environmentalists don't seem to disavow them, which would win some goodwill from the public I think.

If you believe the ends justifies the means, then the law is meaningless to you. A society without law, is no society at all. You cant cherry pick.

Well that’s where we disagree

Assuming you are correct, oil consumption and resultant emissions have no effect on climate change, do you agree that oil is finite? What's the plan for when it's all gone if we won't change our way of life to operate without it?

Those dinosaurs got what was coming to them...they didn't care about net zero and so they were wiped out.
All those times when you could walk from England to Spain-they didn't care about net zero and so the continents moved-serves them right-no more walking around the world!
All those crops failing in pre-revolutionary France, all because they would not stop driving and flying around. If only Marie Antoinette had cared about net zero- the crops wouldn't have failed, the people wouldn't have been fired up to complain about everything else and she would have died with her head in bed.

The planet changes. There has been an Ice Age-continents were connected. Wonderous beasts roamed the earth and died out. The Elizabethans suffered huge prices and famine because of many many summers where it pissed down.

Yes, there is change. There is meant to be otherwise we would be sharing the earth with dinosaurs and living in an Ice Age.

people are easy to fool and they have been fooled by fools who are clever enough to shut down argument by screaming, 'You're killing the earth. You're stealing my future'.

Tis bollocks and if it wasn't bollocks why haven't planes been banned-we managed without them for centuries.

The only thing overheating to destruction is these Net Zero brains.

@Thulpelly

They won’t do these things in any hurry without intense public pressure. Which is where Just Stop Oil’s intentions lie - to raise public awareness. I understand they piss a lot of people off, but if they didn’t they would be completely ignored in the media.

The thing is, there is already widespread awareness of climate change as an issue, so getting media coverage isn't the main point.

Survey evidence suggests their actions reduce public support. i.e. they are actively making things worse. That makes them greater climate villains than most of the public they harangue, though they may feel more virtuous.

XR: 75% fame, 17% popularity:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/explore/not-for-profit/ExtinctionRebellion

Insulate Britain: 73% think their actions hinder their cause, 5% helps.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/38639-three-weeks-motorway-climate-change-protests-publi

JSO: 42% very unfavourable, 4% very favourable.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/07/06/57ab9/2

The protestors presumably see this data. The fact they continue makes me think they either don't seriously believe in their cause, or they are blinded by other motivations.

Now if your goal is to feel maximally virtuous, then making everyone else more villainous (actively reducing their support for climate measures) makes psychological sense.

@Thulpelly

They won’t do these things in any hurry without intense public pressure. Which is where Just Stop Oil’s intentions lie - to raise public awareness. I understand they piss a lot of people off, but if they didn’t they would be completely ignored in the media.

The thing is, there is already widespread awareness of climate change as an issue, so getting media coverage isn't the main point.

Survey evidence suggests their actions reduce public support. i.e. they are actively making things worse. That makes them greater climate villains than most of the public they harangue, though they may feel more virtuous.

XR: 75% fame, 17% popularity:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/explore/not-for-profit/ExtinctionRebellion

Insulate Britain: 73% think their actions hinder their cause, 5% helps.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/38639-three-weeks-motorway-climate-change-protests-publi

JSO: 42% very unfavourable, 4% very favourable.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/07/06/57ab9/2

The protestors presumably see this data. The fact they continue makes me think they either don't seriously believe in their cause, or they are blinded by other motivations.

Now if your goal is to feel maximally virtuous, then making everyone else more villainous (actively reducing their support for climate measures) makes psychological sense.

Alternative actions:

• properly priced carbon taxes/trading, including border adjustments, hypothecated against income taxes to make it politically saleable;
• drop the over-regulation of nuclear to make it economic, with a multi-decade building programme of power plants (like France did succesfully) to capture economies of scale, made popular becuase of the cheaper energy this would afford for all;
• solar at scale, though I suspect normal market economics will supply this given how fast solar technology is advancing;
• significantly increased R&D in carbon capture and storage, which is undersupplied becuase it is a public good. Not sure how to make this happen at the scale needed, realistically, but carbon trading, prizes, and international coordination mechanisms need to be part of it;
• I'm not sure what to do about China and India, which is a massive gap in my plans, but acting in coordination with the US and EU will be a start. Much easier said than done.
• Focus on adaptation, to reduce the human cost of climate change.

The issue is the the above all need significant public support. XR/JSO's actions are almost certainly increasing public opposition, making the above less likely.

We saw the right wing parties (and the right of the Tories) try out anti-green populism at the last election. I think XR is playing exactly into their hands.

It would also help if we had a green party and environmentalist movement that was evidence-based and at peace with market solutions. But they mostly seem to enjoy environmentalism for the counter-cultural vibes, not results, and distracted by other issues.

What's your theory of change, i.e. how does blocking motorways create better climate results? What are the intermediate steps?

Motorway blocked... people angry at XR/JSO.... climate better?

Well that’s where we disagree

So just to be clear, everyone here hating on these activists is fine with the trajectory of our climate and planet? If not, do you actually have anything worthwhile to add? A suggestion of alternative action?

....

It will be a long wait.

Whenever someone mentions China, remember that the UK (and the West) outsourced most of it’s manufacturing to China and India because of cheap labour, looser human rights laws, physical space.

We don’t make much ‘stuff’ in the UK. But we buy it from China. We are connected to Chinese emissions.

Also, the biggest trick Big Oil/Tech have pulled off is to shift the responsibility of reducing your consumption onto the individual and take away the focus from themselves.

I’m pleased about this and hope it sets an example to the rest of these fools. We have a right to peaceful protest but the shit these idiots pull is unacceptable. Lock them all up. Until the rest slink back into the gutter.

"The UK is responsible for 1% of global emissions."

How is that worked out. Is that worked out per person or by country. We are small in comparison to China. If you worked out emissions by person what would that be? I've no idea where to look

Carbon footprints in the UK are huge, I worked mine out and was horrified. I only take the car out once a week but because it is diesel it really bumped me up. I try and save water, I'm always switching off lights, TV is rarely on during the day but it was bad.

I'm trying to buy products manufactured in this country, I buy wooden toys for DGC but half the time they're still made in China and shipped across the world. I would really like shops to detail where a product is manufactured. I t's not always possible when you buy on line

What has excited me is the use of large sails on container ships. This technology was evolved in the UK but couldn't get backing from the Government so if I remember correctly is being manufactured elsewhere

What I'm trying to say in a very un-cohesive roundabout way is that we should still be striving to do better. Just because we're seemingly doing okay doesn't mean we can't be top of the class and lead by example and help other countries out. We cannot be complacent regarding this subject

Sorry if this is all a bit garbled and off the topic