Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that the election results don't add up?

305 replies

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 12:35

How did LibDem get 70 odd seats and Reform 4 when Reform got 14% of the vote. I mean, I understand how it works... but it's hardly cause for LibDem's 'greatest result' ever is it? I bet Nigel is fuming. And rightly so.

To think that the election results don't add up?
OP posts:
BigBoysDontCry · 05/07/2024 14:08

We live with PR in Holyrood and tbh it's not great either as you need to contact a whole group of people if you want support with your issue or pick one who might not be the right one.

In my experience, the only responses you ever get are from the Tories...

cardibach · 05/07/2024 14:07

ll09sm · 05/07/2024 13:42

Labour’s vote share dropped and they got a landslide.

Reform got more votes than Lib dems and got 4 seats.

Lib dems got fewer votes than Reform and got more than 70 seats.

All of it points to one thing being true, as repeated by John Curtis many times in the last few hours.

That Labour did not win more support (except for in Scotland), it’s just that people wanted Tories out and voted with Reform being the big beneficiaries of support and the popular vote.

What that says is that the electorate wanted proper centre right policies and what they got was a socialist government.

This will mean Reform support will grow for next election because people got the opposite of what they asked for (outside of Scotland)

People didn’t get the opposite of what they wanted though, and most people didn’t want right of centre parties. Conservative and Reform together got 38% of the vote. Yes, more than Labour - but Lib Dem, Green, Plaid and SNP plus several smaller parties/independents are left of centre. Most people wanted left wing politics. As is always the case. Until now Tories have benefitted from no vote splitting as the only right wing party. That’s ended (for now).

RandomMess · 05/07/2024 14:07

The Labour Party members recently Voted for PR (again) but leaders aren't currently on board with that.

PoppyCherryDog · 05/07/2024 14:07

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 13:54

Okay, leaving Reform out of it since that's clearly a red rag to a load of bulls, is it right that 34% of the vote gives you 64% of the seats?

I find it hard to believe anyone can justify that other than just parroting 'that's how it's always been and you never moaned before' over and over again.

No one is saying it’s morally right though. The political system is what we have and that’s what we have to consider when voting.

People also forget that back in 2011 (I think!) we had the opportunity to implement the Alternative Vote method and people voted that down. I was 18 at the time and I voted for it as although not perfect it was a step in the right direction to a more proportional voting system.

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 14:07

To clarify, the point is there’s more than one candidate returned to give a proportional result for the constituency

listsandbudgets · 05/07/2024 14:06

Because our electoral system needs reform. Think about it. Two seats next door to each other with 20000 votes turn out each - these figures are just picked out of the air by the way

Seat A - Reform get 8000 votes and Lib Dems get 8500 with Tories on 2000 and Labour on 1500 - Lib Dems win

Seat B Reform get 7000 votes and Tories get 9500 with Lab getting 3000 and Lib Dems getting 500 Tories win

So Reform got 15000 votes and no seats even though out of 40000 votes

Reform 15000
Tories 11500
Lib dems 9000
Lab 4500

And that is why FPTP is an unfair system and also why parties have to focus their resources in particular constituencies rather than working nationally to pull out every vote they can. People would be more engaged in the political process if they thought their vote would count rather than what's the point the same person will get in here again anyway.

I'd hate to see Reform in government BUT seemingly a lot of the British people would be quite pleased.

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 14:05

In PR you have more than 1 candidate per constituency. That’s the whole point of it!

chaostherapy · 05/07/2024 14:05

There was a referendum to change FPTP to an alternative voting form similar to PR in 2011. Turnout was only 42% and the vote was almost 70% of voters wanting to keep FPTP. I guess OP didn't vote or wasn't aware of the referendum that could change the system.

IMO not everyone who voted in protest for Reform in the current FPTP system knowing it was highly unlikely to result in a Reform MP (apart from a maximum of 13 constituencies that Reform were even in consideration for) would have voted for Reform if there was PR. A good amount of the votes for Reform were warning protest votes against the Tories and made knowing they were unlikely to result in a Reform MP.

BigBoysDontCry · 05/07/2024 14:04

MrHarleyQuin · 05/07/2024 13:58

Bit stupid as your vote really does matter. Some constituencies were divided by a handful of votes.

But then you end up voting for who is the best places least worst option rather than in line with your beliefs or whose policies you support or who would be the best person to represent your area.

I'm politically homeless so definitely open to options. My seat was SNP and I wanted the slimy, lazy creep gone (and I don't like the party either). The only way to do that was to vote Labour, do I really believe in what Labour are offering? No. Do I think the candidate for Labour (former local councillor) is a lazy fuckwit? Yes. Did I hold my nose and vote for him anyway? Also yes. Giving a free-er choice, I would have looked at the other candidates and manifestos more closely and maybe voted differently but there wasn't really a choice due to FPTP

user1469770863 · 05/07/2024 14:04

DreadPirateRobots · 05/07/2024 12:51

If you're genuinely interested in understanding, and not just narked because "your" preferred party didn't get the result you want, definitely do some reading around political systems and how First Past The Post compares to proportional representation (PR). (Spoiler alert, PR has some serious drawbacks too.) But the fact that the national fraction of the vote a party got doesn't equate to the seats it won has nothing to do with FPTP. Everywhere, people vote for a representative from their direct area, and the person with the most votes is elected, because you can't elect part of a representative. It wouldn't matter if there were only two candidates in every constituency and Reform got 49% of the vote in every single one, thus winning 49% of the vote nationally; they would still have won 0 seats.

this

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 14:03

Perhaps the issue is that in FPTP some votes count far more than others.

It’s not proportional representation….by name or nature

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 14:02

MrHarleyQuin · 05/07/2024 13:58

Bit stupid as your vote really does matter. Some constituencies were divided by a handful of votes.

Mine doesn't. Safe Conservative seat since 1868!

OP posts:
H34th · 05/07/2024 14:02

@RobynRB yeah, I did say. Many people are stupid and vote led by their hatred towards their fellow humans. You need the extra filters of the current voting system.

Democracy as a rule of law has many short-backs. It's just the best we have so far. It's not perfect. Because people aren't.

Didimum · 05/07/2024 14:01

rumnraisins · 05/07/2024 13:22

Of course

But this is the FPTP for you. Ridiculous, if you ask me.

How can parties with such different share of the public vote be given equal powers in parliament? Or even more perversely, a party with 12% gets 71 seats but a party with 14% - only 4.

This isn’t a representative democracy, if you ask me. And I’m not saying it because I like Reform, I’m saying it because people are being conned - their votes literally don’t matter.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/5/uk-general-election-2024-why-do-some-popular-parties-win-so-few-seats

Labour Party: 35 percent vote share, 412 seats
Conservative Party: 24 percent vote share, 121 seats
Liberal Democrats: 12 percent vote share, 71 seats
Reform UK: 14 percent vote share, 4 seats
Green Party: 7 percent vote share, 4 seats
Scottish National Party (SNP): 2 percent vote share, 9 seats
Sinn Fein: 0.7 percent vote share, 7 seats
Plaid Cymru: 0.7 percent vote share, 4 seats

Edited

Of course they matter. There are a number of constituencies who have unseated their MPs by less than 20 votes, in electorates of tens of thousands. They matter.

Dweetfidilove · 05/07/2024 14:01

You'll find the Green Party are feeling the same way. Supposedly they'd have 45 seats under PR.

In fact, the Lib Dem could still feel hard done by, as with their vote share, they'd also have far more seats under PR.

Whatafustercluck · 05/07/2024 14:01

MrHarleyQuin · 05/07/2024 13:58

Bit stupid as your vote really does matter. Some constituencies were divided by a handful of votes.

My constituency has been true blue for as long as I can remember. Labour won with a margin of around 30 votes. My vote really counted here.

Didimum · 05/07/2024 13:58

CranfordScones · 05/07/2024 12:49

Labour got 33.7% of the vote - just 1.6% up on Corbyn. The country didn't vote overwhelmingly for Labour. But that's the benefit of FPTP. You don't vote to elect governments.

The message to those who wanted Labour in government was to vote tactically, even if that meant not voting Labour. That message was really driven home and it was successful. Resounding result for Labour.

MrHarleyQuin · 05/07/2024 13:58

Bit stupid as your vote really does matter. Some constituencies were divided by a handful of votes.

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 13:58

Summerflames · 05/07/2024 13:55

I've seen a table of how the results would work out if PR was in place currently.

Reform would have got 93 members, Labour would have got something like 212.

In a PR system, Reform voters would not have been ignored & left to fester for so long.

we saw them at Brexit vote. They haven’t gone away. Don’t forget the Brexit party stood aside to allow conservatives get their big win. How much of that win was actually existing reform voters???

Gertrudetheadelie · 05/07/2024 13:57

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 13:50

Well good for them. At least they have some principles.

Or maybe they just wait a while.... too obvious. Right?

Well they didn't change their tune even when FPTP put them in government (admitted as junior partner but still with a significant seat at the table) - something I doubt they'd have achieved with PR. So actually, I think your cynicism is misplaced.

Summerflames · 05/07/2024 13:57

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 13:54

Okay, leaving Reform out of it since that's clearly a red rag to a load of bulls, is it right that 34% of the vote gives you 64% of the seats?

I find it hard to believe anyone can justify that other than just parroting 'that's how it's always been and you never moaned before' over and over again.

It's right for the FTPF system, factually.

Morally is it right? Probably not, but that's the boundaries of the system we work within.

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 13:57

H34th · 05/07/2024 13:53

The upshot is that if the voting system was different many people would have voted differently.

The LibDems got their seats because of tactical voting - they had most of their votes in places where they had a real chance to win/ get the Tories out and not random, 'wasted' votes in constituencies where Labour were strong contenders.

Reform supporters just vote randomly with no idea how it all works. I imagine many of them didn't get to vote because they didn't know what ID to bring either. And if they had won/ had more seats it wouldn't be right for anybody - they do not know what is good for them, and are only united by their hatred for anything and anybody.

Yes, because only 'thickies' would vote for the party I don't like... again, you don't actually want 'other people' to have a meaningful vote do you.

OP posts:
AlecTrevelyan006 · 05/07/2024 13:56

FPTP means that most votes don't really matter which means that many people get disillusioned with the whole process - and is undoubtedly a contributory factor in the long term trend for decreasing voter turnout.

Post war UK general election turnout:
1945 - 72.8%
1950 - 83.9%
1951 - 82.6%
1955 - 76.8%
1959 - 78.7%
1964 - 77.1%
1966 - 75.8%
1970 - 72.0%
1974 Feb - 78.8%
1974 Oct - 72.8%
1979 - 76.0%
1983 - 72.7%
1987 - 75.3%
1992 - 77.7%
1997 - 71.4%
2001 - 59.4%
2005 - 61.4%
2010 - 65.1%
2015 - 66.2%
2017 - 68.8%
2019 - 67.3%
2024 - 59.9%

BigBoysDontCry · 05/07/2024 13:56

Its why SNP had over 80% of the Scottish seats and 40 odd % of the vote.

It's not a great system.

Whatafustercluck · 05/07/2024 13:56

JennieTheZebra · 05/07/2024 12:44

Reform, like UKIP before them, can’t consolidate votes. Lots of votes/a large vote share doesn’t necessarily translate into lots of seats. It’s a foible of the system and one that has screwed NF over many a time.

Honestly, I do want PR, really I do, but this is one the few things that gives me pause. I know that FPTP isn’t very democratic but at least it keeps NF and co in check.

This is how I feel. On the one hand electoral reform is clearly needed. On the other, I worry about giving extremist parties a platform and a foot hold.