Page 4 | To think that the election results don't add up?

RobynRB · 2024-07-05T11:35:52+00:00

How did LibDem get 70 odd seats and Reform 4 when Reform got 14% of the vote. I mean, I understand how it works... but it's hardly cause for LibDem's 'greatest result' ever is it? I bet Nigel is fuming. And rightly so.

LlynTegid · 05/07/2024 16:24

Melisha · 05/07/2024 16:24

People do not turnout when there is no one they are happy to vote for.

Or if they think it is a forgone conclusion.

Melisha · 05/07/2024 16:24

People do not turnout when there is no one they are happy to vote for.

Melisha · 05/07/2024 16:23

Turnout is slightly higher than 2001, but lower since then.

BobnLen · 05/07/2024 16:20

It's probably why turnout is quite low, as people feel their vote won't count.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 05/07/2024 16:19

Bringbackspring · 05/07/2024 15:49

For the first time ever I'm quite glad of our FPTP system (as bizarre as it is) because we'd be in a right Reform mess now otherwise! Objectively, I'd be annoyed if I was Farage because the numbers speak for themselves and they did get more individual votes. But he is such a scumbag weasel of a man with no redeeming qualities, that I'd be happy to find out that he's unhappy.

but if we had introduced PR years ago we wouldn't be in this situation now - because for the past 30 years or so we would probably have had a string of centre/left governments.

Judging the pros and cons of either FPTP or PR on one single election isn't the best way.

Maia77 · 05/07/2024 16:16

I just love the fact that Reform actually helped Labour win, as those votes would have gone to Conservatives if Reform had not stood.

CowTown · 05/07/2024 16:11

Yes OP, this is not new—just ask Hilary Clinton, who got nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump.

Original poster

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 16:05

SilverPuffin · 05/07/2024 16:03

I think it’s an error to try to extrapolate the results from a FPTP system to ‘what they would be’ if we had some form of PR. Parties campaign and people vote based on the system we have so the results today cannot be applied to what we could expect if we were counting differently.
( I would like us to move to PR (although wouldn’t be thrilled with the influence it’d give Reform today) but I don’t think it is anywhere as straightforward as what the current vote shares are. )

No, clearly not. But at least it would represent the votes properly - and yes people would no doubt vote differently if their vote was meaningful. Perhaps it would even lead to more of a polarisation of voting? But at least there wouldn't be people like me stuck in a seat safer than your grandma's sofa who can't make any difference at all. Even Tony Blair didn't get a labour MP in my constituency.

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SilverPuffin · 05/07/2024 16:03

I think it’s an error to try to extrapolate the results from a FPTP system to ‘what they would be’ if we had some form of PR. Parties campaign and people vote based on the system we have so the results today cannot be applied to what we could expect if we were counting differently.
( I would like us to move to PR (although wouldn’t be thrilled with the influence it’d give Reform today) but I don’t think it is anywhere as straightforward as what the current vote shares are. )

PregnantWithHorrors · 05/07/2024 16:02

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:57

Yeah, I imagine LibDem is the next port of call for Conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Reform.

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It seems pretty obvious it would've been in a lot of constituencies yeah. The soft right, one nation types.

SkippysEar · 05/07/2024 16:00

9 pages? The results do add up. If you think otherwise maybe give the electoral commission a call.

Bromptotoo · 05/07/2024 15:59

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:57

Yeah, I imagine LibDem is the next port of call for Conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Reform.

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I think there's a very real risk the Tory party will split if the Braverman faction get to seize the controls.

Or perhaps if they don't and the One Nation faction prevail.

Original poster

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:59

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 15:42

Maybe the structures of how it works?

this election gives an interesting example of FPTP !

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It would be nice to think teachers could explain the political system without imparting their own prejudices and biases, but.... who are we kidding here. I remember being lectured about why we should all vote Labour by my history teacher in about 1985.

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Original poster

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:57

PregnantWithHorrors · 05/07/2024 15:56

It's not too obvious, it's too implausible.

The Lib Dems usually do worse out of FPTP. They're very aware of that. The reason they've done well this time is that this election has had a particularly high get the incumbent out vote. That tends to benefit the Lib Dems, which is why they overachieve in byelections. Most elections aren't like that, and the Lib Dems know that.

TLDR- this is a one off, they will know it's a one off, PR is in their longer term interests.

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Yeah, I imagine LibDem is the next port of call for Conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Reform.

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PregnantWithHorrors · 05/07/2024 15:56

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 13:50

Well good for them. At least they have some principles.

Or maybe they just wait a while.... too obvious. Right?

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It's not too obvious, it's too implausible.

The Lib Dems usually do worse out of FPTP. They're very aware of that. The reason they've done well this time is that this election has had a particularly high get the incumbent out vote. That tends to benefit the Lib Dems, which is why they overachieve in byelections. Most elections aren't like that, and the Lib Dems know that.

TLDR- this is a one off, they will know it's a one off, PR is in their longer term interests.

Bringbackspring · 05/07/2024 15:49

For the first time ever I'm quite glad of our FPTP system (as bizarre as it is) because we'd be in a right Reform mess now otherwise! Objectively, I'd be annoyed if I was Farage because the numbers speak for themselves and they did get more individual votes. But he is such a scumbag weasel of a man with no redeeming qualities, that I'd be happy to find out that he's unhappy.

OatFlatWhiteForMe · 05/07/2024 15:49

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:41

Yes. 14% of the people who voted, not 14% of the population

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Exactly, I believe it takes it down to about 8% of the population in real terms.

SilverBranchGoldenPears · 05/07/2024 15:44

JennieTheZebra · 05/07/2024 12:44

Reform, like UKIP before them, can’t consolidate votes. Lots of votes/a large vote share doesn’t necessarily translate into lots of seats. It’s a foible of the system and one that has screwed NF over many a time.

Honestly, I do want PR, really I do, but this is one the few things that gives me pause. I know that FPTP isn’t very democratic but at least it keeps NF and co in check.

My thoughts exactly!

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 15:42

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:40

Yes, and also banking etc... but politics is difficult to teach in schools without bias.

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Maybe the structures of how it works?

this election gives an interesting example of FPTP !

Original poster

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:41

Shitandrun · 05/07/2024 15:12

So do those results mean 14% of the people voted for Reform?

Yes. 14% of the people who voted, not 14% of the population

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Original poster

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 15:40

FangsForTheMemory · 05/07/2024 15:32

As an aside, I really think it's time politics was taught in schools from about year five. Just on Mumsnet, I've seen so many people who've voted without really understanding what was going on.

Yes, and also banking etc... but politics is difficult to teach in schools without bias.

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triangleatthetop · 05/07/2024 15:39

BlondiBleach · 05/07/2024 14:36

Interested in views in a wider context.

IMO FPTP is outdated. It is only representative for mono-cultures or where 2 dominant cultures.

PR gives a variety of views which is far more reflective of the UK’s multicultural & complex society.

FPTP tends to send the 2 parties to extremes (see America) despite the majority of people being centrist.

then the 2 parties come back towards centre, but the more extreme members have nowhere to go & “upset” the vote.

i accept it is tricky to manage in government but PR gives a plurality of views far more reflective of our actual society. Surely this is a good thing for a government rather than them enacting a minority’s vision? Thoughts?

I used to think this, but in Scotland I saw how it means that a small party, with low support amongst the population and few elected members, wields disproportionate power as King Makers.

So I’m less enamored if it now.

Now I see it’s always a choice of ‘least worst’ system though I am not sure which IS least worst.

TheShellBeach · 05/07/2024 15:38

FangsForTheMemory · 05/07/2024 15:32

As an aside, I really think it's time politics was taught in schools from about year five. Just on Mumsnet, I've seen so many people who've voted without really understanding what was going on.

Yes.
Our Evri delivery driver, who comes into our house with our parcels and is a very friendly guy, told me that he hadn't voted. I was surprised.
But when you think about it, almost half of the electorate didn't bother voting.

cardibach · 05/07/2024 15:34

RobynRB · 05/07/2024 14:48

I think that's true, Reform is the obvious choice for disgruntled Conservative voters. As everyone except Keir Starmer seems to realise, this was not a Labour victory, it was people turning their backs on the Conservatives.

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It was both.

FangsForTheMemory · 05/07/2024 15:32

As an aside, I really think it's time politics was taught in schools from about year five. Just on Mumsnet, I've seen so many people who've voted without really understanding what was going on.