To find what’s happened to Michael Mosley quite anxiety provoking

Is anyone else just absolutely gutted that the Marina didn't check their CCTV until afterwards? I feel like so much heartbreak could have been prevented if everyone in the area had just had a good look at their CCTV for the afternoon he went missing. Absolutely devastated to lose MM.

I think I know you; you may want to NC.

agree, we cannot accept that people die so have to look for a reason that is something they did that we will not do so as to distance ourselves and try and prove to ourselves that we would not do that thing.

It does seem evident he made an error of judgement. We can all draw a useful lesson from his mistake. Doing so might save lives in future. Which might be the best living legacy to a man who was passionate about medicine for public understanding and empowering everyone.

It doesn't have to be about blame.

I've often thought what a waste it was that all the media attention, column inches and broadcast minutes devoted to the death of Diana didn't deliver a pro-seatbelt message.

agree, we cannot accept that people die so have to look for a reason that is something they did that we will not do so as to distance ourselves and try and prove to ourselves that we would not do that thing.

Same as I posted previously, it's to help us believe that we have some control when we really have none.

I did Base Camp many years ago. I had plenty of time in the mountains to acclimatise. However, there were people who were on a short trip, who flew to Lukla and then did a long trek, gaining altitude. That's how you risk altitude sickness by doing the trek too quickly.

But people wanted to get to base camp and they ignored the warning signs of altitude sickness.

Even if you can't make a phone call, taking a phone will help them know the direction you travelled in.

I can’t remember if this has already been posted here but this is a description from someone who had heatstroke:

https://www.outsideonline.com/health/wellness/heat-stroke-signs-symptoms/

It can affect anyone and it can come on quickly. You can suddenly go from feeling a bit off to feeling very ill. Whether MM had heatstroke or not, this is important information to know. I had heat exhaustion once and that was bad enough. I felt very sick and dizzy.

And yes, you can get it in the U.K.

I had it in my 20s and I've never felt so ill in my life, and that was by a pool with lots of drink and shade available. Poor guy

You are not alone. There have been unexpected deaths and near misses in my life that have definitely made me more anxious. I manage not to let it stop me doing stuff but I do worry about others, especially the young adult children. People can be very reckless when they are young and feel invincible. I constantly have to remind myself that catastrophes are actually very rare events, particularly when you are a reasonably privileged UK resident.

All I would add to the comments is, don’t rely on a phone. Take it with you everywhere by all means, but it won’t necessarily save your life.
I have had great reception trekking in the highlands of Laos, and can sometimes barely get a signal in parts of central London. But in any case, better to rely on your wits than on a phone.

You can develop non-exertional heat stroke in just a few hours, especially if the humidity is high in addition to it being a hot day. The length of walk, plus the description of the CCTV footage at the resort sound consistent with heat stroke to me. It carries a very high mortality rate, even with intensive treatment. It's perhaps a good thing that this is raising awareness.

You’ve got this the wrong way round! There are no credible first-hand sources who’ve said that MM was unwell when he left the beach.

The most reliable witness of course is MM’s wife, whose statement (when he was still missing) said simply that he’d left the beach to go for a walk.

Clearly he later became unwell after hours of walking across rocky terrain.

But he hadn’t been when he set off from the beach.

I know of three older 60+ men who've had sudden cardiac events whilst doing vigorous exercise. All physically fit and in shape. Makes me think we all need to take it easier
and maybe not do Iron Man and Pelaton when we're post 65

I am in a walking group where most of us are in our 60, 70s and 80s. We normally walk between 8 and 10 miles. We wouldn't do mountainous terrain without proper walking boots and walking poles. We'd carry plenty of water. We'd have applied sun cream. We'd have broad brimmed hats. We would have maps, compasses, water. The risks posed by our chosen route would have been assessed.

Walking/hiking when done properly is not a hazardous activity. It keeps you fit. Most of us are in much better nick than our non-walking friends.

'Summit fever' in mountaineering. Many have lost their lives on Everest because of it. The 'turnaround time' is 2pm, no matter where you are at that point in the Death Zone.

@SallyWD ah I didn’t know it was so long, thank you.

He left them at 1.30 and died around 4pm. That's 2.5 hours of walking in over 40 degrees heat. A lot of that walk (I think 1.5 hours) was on the mountain - very rocky terrain, a lot of it uphill in a place with no shelter at all, no trees, nothing. The rocks were burning hot - look at that poor dogs feet.
Even if he did have a heart attack I'm pretty sure it's because the heat and exertion put his body under enormous strain.

The heat almost certainly played a part but the terrain cannot be underestimated. Anyone who's been on a treadmill and dabbled with the incline setting will know how much difference even a slight incline makes, then add on top of that the constant up and downing of walking over big rocks and your heart rate would be through the roof.

The ‘Swiss Cheese Model’ helps to minimise the chance of catastrophic failure. Consider many slices of cheese all with holes in them but in different places. The idea being you have many layers of
mitigative measures or barriers, none of which are in themselves a compete cover for the failure but when overlapped they reduce the chance of failure because the holes don’t line up. When the holes line up then catastrophic failure can happen.

You are able to leave the house and not be struck down by catastrophic failure because you have many layers of cheese which prevent this from happening for the majority of the time. Michael didn’t have enough layers of cheese in his situation

Someone upthread mentioned "Plan Continuation Bias" - known as "Must get there itiis"

When you continue on a plan because you must get there, despite warning signs etc - and at some point, you need to evaluate your decision making and your plan.

But it can be hard to stop and reevaluate when you are carrying out your plan.

There was a post before he was found that really resonated with me.

Thread 3 - Michael Mosley missing after disappearing on holiday walk

buidhebeltainn · 09/06/2024 08:49
Tim Harford has a podcast series "Cautionary Tales" One of them ("Danger: Rocks Ahead") is on something called "Plan Continuation Bias" The idea is that someone makes a plan, Plan A, then something makes them tweak it slightly, then something else makes them tweak it slightly again. They think they're still following Plan A, but at some point there have been so many tweaks that Plan A is now an unplanned Plan B.

I think that's what has happened here, and why there is so much confusion. There was Plan A. Water taxi to the beach, spend the day there, water taxi back. MM either forgets his phone, or realises it needs charging so leaves it on charge. So his Plan A is slightly tweaked to a day without his phone, but that's a tiny tweak. It doesn't matter.

At the beach, after a swim, MM decides that he wants to head home, while the others stick to Plan A. If at that point he's intending to walk to Pedi, then get the bus, that's quite straightforward. So it's a second tweak, but it's a small one.

None of them quite realise that the combination of Tweak 1 (no phone) and Tweak 2 (head home alone) is cumulatively bigger than two small tweaks to the plan.

He gets to Pedi and for some reason doesn't get the bus, or decides to do some exploring before getting a later bus. Bus later, rather than bus now is a small tweak to the plan. But that's the third small tweak. He still thinks he's on Plan A. But the combination of tweak 1 (no phone) tweak 2 (head off alone) and tweak 3 (don't get the bus his wife thinks he's getting) means that he's now on unplanned Plan B, and his wife and friends have no idea.

So he ends up at the point of the last CCTV sighting. He might not even realise he's on the wrong path at this point. Or this route might be Tweak 4. He's now onto Plan B, which would require, perhaps, a map, and a bigger water supply, and proper hiking shoes. But he doesn't realise he's unequipped for Plan B, because he thinks he's still on Plan A, slightly tweaked.

"Plan Continuation Bias" It's a thing.

I think that’s what happened here except I don’t think he decided to go exploring when he missed the bus. I think he deliberately decided to walk to Ag. Marina probably to catch the boat back to Symi Town. After all it should have been a 30 minute walk and he’d just completed a 30 minute walk from the beach at St. Nicholas to Pedi without any problem. He’s in fine form when he takes the turn onto the path to Ag. Marina, obviously not anticipating any trouble. Except it’s a much much tougher walk, a lot of it uphill with no shade at all (except the umbrella), he only had a small bottle of water and the sun was getting even more intense. The walk that should have taken 30 minutes took him at least 1 hour and 30 minutes in fierce heat.

It’s a tragedy and a great loss because he was such a lovely man.

Because in the UK most people do not understand the impact of heat, except on babies and very frail elderly people.

You can see that when mumsnetters post scathing comments to people who are concerned about heatwaves in this country, looking back to 2022. Older people, babies and those with underlying health conditions much more vulnerable to the heat.