Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

Wouldn't it be amazing if labour won and the tories didn't even come 2nd so they couldn't even be in opposition. The greens in opposition would be the stuff of dreams

Has it ever happened before in history? (the tories not being either in gov OR in opposition?)

I think a lot of people seem to think so, but really we've not seen any manifestos.

All we have for sure with Labour is measly VAT on schools and Tories this conscription thing. I want to see what Libs and Greens have to offer personally.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32651603.amp

this is a testament to the Tory campaign machine

You're looking at what happened since they were elected though. The post you quoted was making the point that the conservatives did well to get those two into power. Your (correct) observations about them just show that the tories know how to win elections with an average hand.

Of course the campaigning was impressive - because they won from an unexpected position. Again, you might not like them or agree but the numbers speak for themselves.

I personally really liked DC - I think he came across as pretty sensible. He just fucked himself up the arse by assuming brexit wouldn’t happen (which tbf was a reasonable assumption).

Do you really? Awesome 🙌🏼

And you get a free hot dog when you vote. That’s got to help.

5 weeks is a long time in politics.

Yes in Australia it’s mandatory to vote, but it’s only a smallish fine.

the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive.

It was? I must have been out that day.

Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring

DC inspiring? 🤣 I'll give you BJ being charismatic, but also a proven liar and a complete clown.

Starmer is also not Corbyn which can only be beneficial.

Hopefully not 🤞🏻 looking at the polls I suspect a hung parliament

No, nothing is guaranteed.

No.

You can never guarantee what will happen in an election.

The polls give an idea but there is always the possibility of something extraordinary happening.

Polls can also be wrong, as in the 1992 election. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinionpollinggforthee1992UniteddKingdomgenerallelection

If it is a wet day in the parts of the country Labour need to gain seats to get a majority, if people think it is a forgone conclusion, then it might not happen. Opinion polls also tend to underestimate Tory votes and have done for many elections, perhaps 2017 apart.

No

Yes! I’ve just finished my post saying the same!

In general their campaigning machine is insane. Love them or hate them (and most people on here hate them), the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive. It’s actually v interesting to read about how they won.

the issue is that Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring, he’s a bit wet and slimy, and people don’t like how excessively wealthy and awkward he is.

Starmer is also essentially just a joint of gammon with nothing to him, but he benefits from just not being a Tory.

I am genuinely surprised at how many people are polling that they will vote for reform, and I wonder if these are protest poll votes which on the day will revert back as people panic about labour getting in.

I don't think we will ever really see the true feelings of an entire nation until mandatory voting is law, I can't see that ever happening. I think they have it in Australia, but I'm not sure.

People voting against the Tories will see Labour win I think, but I dont think it'll be the hive landslide they think will be.

The most interesting poll results to me ATM is the Reform vote. They've over taken Lib Dems and others according to the Sky Poll I saw.

The conservatives have won from underdog status before. Maybe not this much but they know how to win elections. I'm hoping Scotland leaning back towards labour and people's disgust as some of the cabinet behaviour since 2020 is a shifting factor but who knows. Plus reform may split some of the tory vote. I do think labour has its flaws and is trying to hoover up all pockets of voters whose beliefs may contradict each other could still be their undoing.

The thing is there is always time for a politician or party to completely fuck up - all Starmer needs to do is maintain, but look at what happened in the fields of wheat election 😀 you just never know!

One of the dangers is that if the polls remain as they are, lots of Labour voters will assume it's a forgone conclusion and won't vote. Not dissimilar to what happened in the Brexit vote. There's absolutely no room for complacency.

Nothing is guaranteed in politics.

The polls are currently predicting a strong Labour win. There is still a month to go however. If I were partial to betting I would put my money on a Labour govt but, as the saying goes, it's not over til the fat lady sings.

Well going by the fury I’ve seen towards Labour on social media in my area it seems inevitable that there will be a Tory win.
Then when taking the children to their grandparents, there seems to be a heavy reform vote.
Near the other grandparents there’s a leading to LibDems.
I don’t think anything’s a foregone conclusion!