Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

Not yet but give it time.

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

Is this another school fees thread

Going into the Autumn Statement and the winter months is a terrible time for the Tories to seek an uplift in votes though. COL is higher, the NHS is entering its annual crisis mode and less people in older demographics vote in winter.

Yes I can see that re voting turnout and hefty dual fuel bills, but I'm still surprised Rishi grasped the nettle while the polls are so dire. It's not like a Tory PM to be clear eyed and pragmatic enough to think "well the polls will only get worse".

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm antsy.

Nope. I was having this conversation with partner tonight.
I don't think they'll win a majority government.
He said the polls have never been so much in labours favour.
I said the polls don't take into account the older generation who don't use the internet and all the oldies who will out to vote Tory if it's the only thing they do all year?! (disclaimer: I know not all older people vote Tory 😆).
It's partners birthday 2 days before and he thinks his birthday present is going to be labour getting in.
I think he's going to be sorely disappointed, I hope I'm wrong!
I genuinely don't think I'll see a labour majority in my lifetime. People are too thick, scared and selfish and believe the right wing media. There are closet Tories everywhere.
Btw I'm 39 and very left.

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott.

I hope so.

Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for?

It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!

It's savvy re DA but they should have done it sooner. AR just needs a Malcolm Tucker type in her tail, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet.

It's frustrating watching Starmer fudge everything. I remember being a big fan of his Guardian column 20+ years ago as an undergrad. He was so incisive and efficient then.

I am certainly one who is uncomfortable with how ruthless Starmer has been to those more on the left in his party but will still vote Labour as appalled at idea of another Conservative govt.

Yes they do have mandatory voting in Australia and I wish we had it here. But they do have the option of non of the above as well sonyou can literally vote for no-one. But it should be compulsory to turn out I think.

I disagree. Labour will win this election by people switching from Cons to Lab. Most of those switchers will loathe Diane Abbott. Getting rid of her will give more comfort to the floating voters than it will upset labour voters, because even if the La our loyalists are not happy, who else are they realistically going to vote for? It’s actually quite a savvy move. Same with that Brighton guy where they’ve just found a convenient allegation from 8 years ago to skewer him with. Et tu Brutus indeed !!

Going into the Autumn Statement and the winter months is a terrible time for the Tories to seek an uplift in votes though. COL is higher, the NHS is entering its annual crisis mode and less people in older demographics vote in winter.

I personally really liked DC - I think he came across as pretty sensible.

His and Osborne’s austerity stymied growth and decimated public services. I know the public fell for it though.

That might be because we’ve yet to see the manifesto. The TV debate next Tuesday will be entertaining.

I hope so.

It’s not forgone no. A lot of people are clueless as to what Starmar actually stands for.

Some see through the rubbish that “everything will be better under Labour” (I hate the Tories, but Labour aren’t actually much better atm)

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

No by running her mouth about the Labour intention to recognise a Palestinian state. She doesn't seem to have any capability for diplomacy or subtlety and the labour antisemitism situation is still so recent. She's a liability to us, I think.

You'd think the RTB muckraking would have taught her to keep her head down, though, now you mention it.

I think they will. I was there in ‘97 for the landslide (I was 26 at the time) and things were not this serious back then.

I’m not even sure how I’ll vote on the day, but I think the Tories are definitely toast. Not for long though, they’ll be back in next election.

I think the question is will the Tories even be the opposition party at this rate.

I heard today that a lot of over 65s are not voting Tory and for those under 55 (I think) the percentage intending to vote Tory barely gets above 10%.

That said, the votes aren't all going to Labour, but to Reform, so this doesn't necessarily mean a massive majority for Labour.

Usually I’d say there are no foregone conclusions, but in this case I think the polls have been far too solid for too long.

I'm also growing suspicious that Sunak has something up his sleeve vis a vis the eccentric timing of the election. I mean, he could just be desperate or stupid but maybe there's a stunt coming.

In Angela Rayner's case how - by being cleared of the trumped up accusations made against her?!

Or Labour would form a minority government. Minority governments are worse than coalitions as they are at high risk of collapse.

I hope so but there are a lot of shy Tory voters.

Nor do I. The last time I was impressed was when Major got on his soapbox.

Well I thought so, but I'm starting to think Angela Rayner is being paid by the Tories to sabotage Labour's majority. The Diane Abbott situation is also a mess.

God save us from another coalition.

One can but hope. ❌