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Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

183 replies

hangerba · 29/05/2024 20:30

That’s it really…

OP posts:
WomensRightsRenegade · 30/05/2024 07:31

Labour will probably win but only because people want to give the Tories a bloody nose, not because they actively want Labour and Starmer. If people are expecting Labour to do anything particularly different they’re in for a huge shock. Why are they obsessed with things like VAT on school fees and gender ideology? Because they won’t have the money to actually do anything to help the NHS and other issues people actually care about. They won’t help people’s mortgages come down and they won’t help inflation or cost of living.

It really is going to be a far cry from the Blair years. For a start we’re going to have many in the cabinet believing men can have a cervix, women can have a penis, and in David Lammy’s case, believing that women wanting to uphold their Equality Act protections are ‘dinosaurs hoarding rights’

Lastly, as for the ‘right wing bias’ of the media - the largest newspapers are right wing. But the BBC are left wing, as are TikTok, FB and X (yes, even since Elon Musk.

FilthyforFirth · 30/05/2024 05:31

Another tedious thread about private schools. I am assuming this is the policy that the OP is so worried about.

No idea if Labour will win or not but I certainly hope so. Even of there is a coalition I would bet my house the VAT policy will stay.

So probably best to start planning for that OP.

Sladurche · 30/05/2024 04:51

Let's be honest here. DC got in because of Brexit referendum promise. BJ got in because he was going to get Brexit done.
It wasn't charisma or fantastic policies; if you look at the no. 1 reason people voted for Brexit, it was immigration and distrust of foreign governments (ie Xenophobia). The elderly xenophobe vote is now going to Reform, as they have picked up the banner and are running on fibs about foreigners.

Zanatdy · 30/05/2024 04:20

I think they will win by a large majority. Since the last election a lot of people have been affected directly with huge mortgage increases and they don’t have Boris this time. Last general election the tories only just lost in my home town in north wales, why anyone there would think a Tory government would benefit them I don’t know, I think labour will be back to their huge majority there. Pretty sure a lot of people voted Tory due to Boris, and his get Brexit done pledge. Lis Truss then put the nail in the coffin for the tories

GreenTeaLikesMe · 30/05/2024 04:14

Mandatory voting is a great idea IMO. If you really don’t want to vote, you can always just scribble on your ballot paper. But showing up at the polls (or voting by post or proxy) is something citizens should be expected and required to do, no different to paying taxes or taking part in the census.

Catsmere · 30/05/2024 04:08

AutumnCrow · 30/05/2024 04:04

May I ask another dumb question?

How are postal votes and letters posted in remote places? Is there an occasional mail pickup or do people have to drive to the nearest town/settlement?

Not a dumb question , but one I can only guess the answer - I would imagine the roadside mail pickup is the way.

But! I just had a look and for really remote communities, the Australian Electoral Commission takes minibuses around for people to vote.

AutumnCrow · 30/05/2024 04:04

Catsmere · 30/05/2024 03:57

Yes indeed! Given the size of the country and remoteness of some places, it's essential. I got it for when taking my mother to vote wasn't possible anymore. Varies by state - in Queensland I had to apply for every blasted election. In Victoria it's just once.

May I ask another dumb question?

How are postal votes and letters posted in remote places? Is there an occasional mail pickup or do people have to drive to the nearest town/settlement?

Catsmere · 30/05/2024 03:57

AutumnCrow · 30/05/2024 03:51

Do you have postal voting?

Yes indeed! Given the size of the country and remoteness of some places, it's essential. I got it for when taking my mother to vote wasn't possible anymore. Varies by state - in Queensland I had to apply for every blasted election. In Victoria it's just once.

AutumnCrow · 30/05/2024 03:51

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:48

Strictly speaking it's mandatory to get your name crossed off the list. Once that's done you can vote, or not, as you please. I have been spoiling my ballot for years. Fortunately we also have preferential voting, so there's a bit more incentive when both Liberal and Labor are rubbish.

Do you have postal voting?

HappiestSleeping · 30/05/2024 03:34

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:44

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

He and his wife have been keeping their green cards warm. The broadsheets reported on it. Presumably they have a use for green cards or they would not bother.

So PP might be right on that.

This 👆 @BloodyHellKenAgain @BIossomtoes

It's been widely reported in the broadsheets, and private eye.

RandomButtons · 30/05/2024 00:05

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:59

😂So it is just a MN rumour after all !!

It made it onto HIGNFY so not just mumsnet

RandomButtons · 30/05/2024 00:03

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:25

That might be because we’ve yet to see the manifesto. The TV debate next Tuesday will be entertaining.

Indeed.

Nopetynope · 30/05/2024 00:01

The tories will be obliterated! My children who all come from a MC background absolutely hate the Tories . They hate the racism and Brexit finished them off.
Two children are not now at home and have applied for postal votes!!

TheCookieCrumblesThisWay · 30/05/2024 00:00

Nothing is guaranteed and people should not be complacent

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:59

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:42

No, he’s denying it. Which means he’s booked the flights.

😂So it is just a MN rumour after all !!

NewName24 · 29/05/2024 23:59

mynameiscalypso · 29/05/2024 20:48

One of the dangers is that if the polls remain as they are, lots of Labour voters will assume it's a forgone conclusion and won't vote. Not dissimilar to what happened in the Brexit vote. There's absolutely no room for complacency.

This is my concern too.

alwayscrashinginthesamecar1 · 29/05/2024 23:59

AnneLovesGilbert · 29/05/2024 21:08

And you get a free hot dog when you vote. That’s got to help.

AKA the Democracy Sausage. There is even a website with a clickable map showing which polling booths have them, along with other offerings like bake sales. Sadly they aren't usually free though.

Democracy Sausage

A real-time crowd-sourced map of sausage and cake availability at Australian elections. It's practically part of the Australian Constitution. Or something. #demsausage

https://democracysausage.org/

Livelovebehappy · 29/05/2024 23:56

amijustbeingsuspicious · 29/05/2024 20:55

In general their campaigning machine is insane. Love them or hate them (and most people on here hate them), the campaigning with David Cameron and Boris Johnson was beyond impressive. It’s actually v interesting to read about how they won.

the issue is that Rishi is not DC or BJ - he’s not charismatic or inspiring, he’s a bit wet and slimy, and people don’t like how excessively wealthy and awkward he is.

Starmer is also essentially just a joint of gammon with nothing to him, but he benefits from just not being a Tory.

I am genuinely surprised at how many people are polling that they will vote for reform, and I wonder if these are protest poll votes which on the day will revert back as people panic about labour getting in.

There’s a lot of disenchanted Tory voters turning to Reform. You have to realise too that a lot of true blue Tory voters, might be turning away from them, but would rather stick pins in their eyes than vote Labour. So Reform will be their go to party. This will mean that the Tory vote will be split, but it will also stop their votes going to Labour, so Labour might not get the landslide they’re hoping for. Labour are going to have to navigate a lot of potential issues in the lead up to the GE ie, if there are divisions forming between the far left MPs and Starmer, it’s going to make the ‘not yet decided’ voters feel nervous, and they’ll back off. The Abbott situation is doing the party no favours.

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:56

MigGirl · 29/05/2024 23:30

Yes they do have mandatory voting in Australia and I wish we had it here. But they do have the option of non of the above as well sonyou can literally vote for no-one. But it should be compulsory to turn out I think.

Sadly no, we don't have "none of the above" as an option. Wish we did!

mrlistersgelfbride · 29/05/2024 23:51

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:48

The polls aren’t conducted online and Labour’s 7 points ahead of the Tories in the over 65 age group.

That's more reassuring although 7 points isn't that much.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:48

The polls aren’t conducted online and Labour’s 7 points ahead of the Tories in the over 65 age group.

Catsmere · 29/05/2024 23:48

SherbetDips · 29/05/2024 21:07

Yes in Australia it’s mandatory to vote, but it’s only a smallish fine.

Strictly speaking it's mandatory to get your name crossed off the list. Once that's done you can vote, or not, as you please. I have been spoiling my ballot for years. Fortunately we also have preferential voting, so there's a bit more incentive when both Liberal and Labor are rubbish.

LiterallyOnFire · 29/05/2024 23:44

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

He and his wife have been keeping their green cards warm. The broadsheets reported on it. Presumably they have a use for green cards or they would not bother.

So PP might be right on that.

Didimum · 29/05/2024 23:43

mrlistersgelfbride · 29/05/2024 23:36

Nope. I was having this conversation with partner tonight.
I don't think they'll win a majority government.
He said the polls have never been so much in labours favour.
I said the polls don't take into account the older generation who don't use the internet and all the oldies who will out to vote Tory if it's the only thing they do all year?! (disclaimer: I know not all older people vote Tory 😆).
It's partners birthday 2 days before and he thinks his birthday present is going to be labour getting in.
I think he's going to be sorely disappointed, I hope I'm wrong!
I genuinely don't think I'll see a labour majority in my lifetime. People are too thick, scared and selfish and believe the right wing media. There are closet Tories everywhere.
Btw I'm 39 and very left.

After the 2015 polling fiasco they are conducted with much better quality now though.

BIossomtoes · 29/05/2024 23:42

BloodyHellKenAgain · 29/05/2024 23:40

Has Sunak actually said he plans to move to the states because the only place I've heard that is as a rumour on mumsnet !!

No, he’s denying it. Which means he’s booked the flights.

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