Is it a foregone conclusion now that labour will win?

@BloodyHellKenAgain @BIossomtoes @LiterallyOnFire

Update - latest reports are that Sunak has enrolled his children into school in California for September.

It's impossible to tell. So neither accused nor reported I guess.

That's why you report them.

I'm not sure what is unclear in what I said.

If you think someone is a paid Tory shill or bot, report them.. don't accuse them as MN sees that as troll hunting.

No, I know what mumsnet say.

I mean - how on earth would you know if someone was or wasn't a paid tory disrupter starting, or contributing to, threads to stir the pot?
It would be impossible to tell.

Because MN Told me.

How on earth would you know? @TuesdayWhistler

If you think anyone is a paid Tory shill or bot, report them.

MN considers accusing a poster of being a shill or bot as Troll Hunting.

I cynically think a lot of these type of posts are definitely by paid Tory disrupters desperately trying to create an anti-Labour narrative.

Going by posts on Mumsnet it isn't. All I seem to see at the moment are anti-Starmer posts. The main themes are VAT on school fees and trans - although there are occasional variations including dishonesty, Diane Abbott and personal appearance, these are the main 2 attack lines of the Tory women and they are relentless.

Those two polices would be business as usual if there's another 5 years of Conservative rule.

@Lampslights ,

I think they have to raise taxes. We are still below the European average in total tax take. I don’t think they will touch VAT or income tax but that leaves a host of other options, together with closing loopholes (like private equity carried interest, non dom status etc).

In education they might raise something from VAT on private fees, but it could also be their ‘Rwanda’, subject to a lot of legal challenges and won’t raise that much if it ever happens.

There are also a lot of efficiency gains to be made in the NHS.

A very good friend of mine, who was, for many many years, a political correspondent for The Times, and still avidly follows all things politics, has been saying to me for at least the past 18 months, that Labour are going to landslide the next election.
Ever since the Boris days basically, she's been saying "they're fucked". And the only thing Starmer has to do in order to win, "is pretty much just don't say anything really dumb, and keep his head down." And let's be honest, Starmer could be called many things, but dumb isn't one of them.

Probably by stopping some of the wastage of the Conservative party (Rwanda etc), managing what he has more efficiently, and increasing borrowing to some extent.

Where will he get this money ?

Yes they will win under normal circumstances. I think the only way they could lose is if they do something outrageous like unexpectedly announce they're legalising rape or intend to introduce a "scum tax" of 90% for anyone earning under £100k a year. Assuming they're not quite stupid enough to do anything like this the only real risk is a sudden new illness sweeping through Labour ranks and killing a significant number of candidates. If this were to happen the polls in those constituencies would have to be suspended whilst new candidates were put forward. This would take time, and if another party had enough seats they may be able to form a government. If they did a decent enough job before the new polls could be held, it may sway the vote away from Labour.

Under normally conceivable circumstances they can't lose.

@SherbetDips ,

Why do you think Labour will be worse? (I am a pretty much lifelong Tory voter bar voting for Blair in his first term).

We need a functioning medical system. We need a functional education system outside the private sector. And we need a sensible immigration and trade policy, not silly gimmicks like ‘Rwanda’. We also need our utilities to function properly, especially the most basic thing of all: clean water.

For the vast majority, the above are the sine qua non of a functioning modern democracy (plus defence, but I don’t see either party leading on this). The Tories have got so involved in infighting and enriching themselves that they have neglected the basics. To many outside the UK, we are no longer seen as a 1st World country (sorry if the phrase offends some, but everyone knows the meaning).

OTOH, VAT on school fees is a massive thing for a tiny amount of people. Most people educate in the state sector and, for the majority of private school parents, an extra couple of hundred thousand over 13 years of schooling isn’t significant and won’t be a defining issue. The gender wars are important but not vital for some and they are also being seen to have had their day with biological sex being increasingly accepted as definitional.

I find Starmer an intensely boring and not particularly likeable technocrat. But he is ‘doing a Blair’, just blocking Sunak and not committing to anything until he is in power. But he will put more money into the NHS and, hopefully, education. He will also, hopefully, renationalise water, although he hasn’t said it. I don’t love him but he doesn’t scare me either.

The Tories will get annihilated. I just can’t see what might happen ahead of July 4th to change the way people feel.

@hangerba I personally do not think that many people have any faith in Starmer!!! you never know what will happen. just feel more sorry for us in scotland who have to endure the idiotic snp who cannot do anything right!! we are technically under both westminster and holyrood! they should stop this devolution nonsense which is not working!

‘Because no matter how awful the Tory’s are being. Labour are worse.’

Really??? Because Inhave to say, this feels like rock bottom to me.

Tory MPs are quitting - ahead of the election. That’s because they are expecting to lose their seat anyway.

Yes, and by a landslide. I’m presuming by ‘policies’ that you’re yet another private school parent panicking about having to pay fair taxes in fees.

Or isn’t something else bothering you? Tories are so far behind that it may be a worse defeat than 1997 apparently

Exactly. It’s nonsense.

Just making it up, then.

How can anyone link to such a thing, read the newpapers, you can judge tone.😂

pinotnow · Yesterday 22:51
But you don't 'get the press aligned with you' - the British press is always right wing because of who owns it, not because of the quality of the campaigns that are run

The British press isn’t wholly right wing. The Guardian and Daily Mirror represent the left.
I have no idea about political blogs though - are there more left wing ones than right wing? And which are more widely read/subscribed to?

Aren’t they? I haven’t seen anything to suggest a change of mind by any media. Do you have any links?