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To think pronatalists are on to something?

231 replies

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 09:28

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/american-pronatalists-malcolm-and-simone-collins?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

I don't agree with everything this couple say or do but I do think we are approaching a demographic timebomb when the global human population starts to drop in 50 years time.

Most women probably expect to have more DCs at 20 than they end up having by 45. What can we do to get the UK birth rate to replacement rate of c 2.5 so we don't have a crisis of elderly people without enough workers to pay for or provide care and subsidence?

OP posts:
KimberleyClark · 25/05/2024 11:24

EverythingYouDoIsaBalloon · 25/05/2024 10:55

Great post. Totally agree.

Probably a bit of a "there won't be enough white people" thing as well.

RobertaFirmino · 25/05/2024 11:09

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 09:59

Good god, no it wouldn’t. You’d rather just another desolate planet like all the others in the solar system?

Desolate? I hate to break it to you but we are not the only living species on this planet. Our closest relatives are critically endangered through human activity. Who's to say the human race is more important than the orangutan? They contribute to the regeneration of the planet with every movement they make. Humans just wreck it.

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 11:07

The way to look forward positively is to think up ways to encourage highly educated women to have 2-5 DCs rather than 0-2

It is so difficult. East Asian, Protestant Europe, Catholic Europe are all having this same problem. I think Lee Kwan Yew suggested paying female graduates a child bonus (iirc) but it wasn’t widely supported at that time.

Tbh I think a common denominator is a lack of marriageable men. But that’s just my opinion

Reversypercypig · 25/05/2024 11:05

I've just read it. My main takeaway was they are clearly damaged people who should have invested in therapy rather than selecting babies based on criteria they view as desirable, having a child every 18 months, then neglecting them to the point of abuse. I'll take the end of humans if that's how we're meant to increase populations.

We need to be kind to each other and our environment, respect it and make positive changes, not whatever bullshit these people are spouting.

CurrentHun · 25/05/2024 11:05

Pretty sure that this form of capitalism we are currently living in where standards of living are falling for ordinary people such that many people in the UK can’t afford to feed, clothe or house themselves let alone their kids, through no fault of their own, is sorting out the population crisis for us all by itself. Only the very rich will be able to afford a baby in future. And even then, they will have very few.

AlpineMuesli · 25/05/2024 11:05

Can’t grow human population forever. It’s a close system.
But you know who loves population growth?

The rich at the top.

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 11:04

GETTINGLIKEMYMOTHER · 25/05/2024 10:59

What on earth makes you think it’d be desolate? If we were all wiped out tomorrow by some epidemic, plants would take over. You’ve only got to look at how weeds manage to break through concrete in a short time. A large petrol station forecourt near us was left untouched for some time before redevelopment - within a couple of years you could hardly see the concrete for a forest of flourishing green plant life.

But it wouldn’t last forever anyway. If humans were gone, the earth would go through its cycles and there would be many extinction cycles. So why are you so precious about this one? (I am precious about it because humans can thrive in this one. But you have no particular reason to care)

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 11:03

KimberleyClark · 25/05/2024 10:52

Did you read this OP

Malcolm sees South Korea as a vision of our near future: the problem is most acute in countries that are “technophilic, pluralistic, educated, where women have rights”.

Damn women for having rights!

It's true that historically and in the present the more educated women are both within and between countries, the fewer DCs they have.

The way to look forward positively is to think up ways to encourage highly educated women to have 2-5 DCs rather than 0-2.

Childcare policies don't seem to work? 🤷‍♀️

OP posts:
GETTINGLIKEMYMOTHER · 25/05/2024 10:59

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 09:59

Good god, no it wouldn’t. You’d rather just another desolate planet like all the others in the solar system?

What on earth makes you think it’d be desolate? If we were all wiped out tomorrow by some epidemic, plants would take over. You’ve only got to look at how weeds manage to break through concrete in a short time. A large petrol station forecourt near us was left untouched for some time before redevelopment - within a couple of years you could hardly see the concrete for a forest of flourishing green plant life.

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 10:58

rainfordays · 25/05/2024 10:37

I don't get why you think a "crisis of eldery people" is going to be the biggest issue we face in coming decades. You're looking at the wrong problem.

The fact is that the planet cannot support an ever-growing global population, in terms of fresh water availability and land needed for food production. The ONLY sensible solution, especially given the climate crisis that's well underway and is impacting food production globally already, is to discuss global population reduction - but nobody wants to because it would be political suicide.

If you're interested in a short, informative read, try a book called Ten Billion by Stephen Emmott for something that may provide you a different view.

I've read it.

A lot of previous predictions are out of date already because the global birth rate has dropped further and faster than anyone anticipated.

Extinction is my primary concern. However bad people are I want humans to continue to exist until the next city sized meteor hits Earth.

The dependency ratio (working age population 16-64 to the dependent population 0-15, 65+) will be a more immediate source of suffering to people who have already been born.

As a society we won't be able to afford care home costs of £100s pwk and hospital costs of £1000s pwk when 1 in 3 people are over 65.

OP posts:
EverythingYouDoIsaBalloon · 25/05/2024 10:55

TimeForTeaAndG · 25/05/2024 09:45

We could...have a common travel area to allow neighbouring country populations to come and work...oh wait, we had that...

There's 8 billion people in the world so really we don't have a population shortage problem, we have a "everyone's too bloody worried about letting outsiders in" problem.

Great post. Totally agree.

happybluefern · 25/05/2024 10:53

There’s a pretty big gulf between - would be nice if I could have 3 kids - and - I am willing to have Caesarean after caesarean, factoring that I will likely haemorrhage at some Point which could put my life at risk, until I have at least 7 children who neither me or my husband actually want to look after or parent so we get some neighbours to do it or use physical punishment because we don’t know how to do anything else.

KimberleyClark · 25/05/2024 10:52

Did you read this OP

Malcolm sees South Korea as a vision of our near future: the problem is most acute in countries that are “technophilic, pluralistic, educated, where women have rights”.

Damn women for having rights!

Pin0cchio · 25/05/2024 10:51

Ps we do need children but we can't assume indefinite population growth. Stabilising is hard but necessary.

Pin0cchio · 25/05/2024 10:50

Honestly?

We sort of need to accept that the transition to lower population growth will be uncomfortable, but allow it to happen. Younger people will need to be more involved- instead of just children caring for elderly grandparents, grandchildren will need to help. Also - we will have to pragmatic and draw a line regarding medical treatment to prolongue the lives of people in poor health. We cannot and should not live forever

WoshPank · 25/05/2024 10:50

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 10:30

I just came from that thread too!

Society hates to do anything to help women/mothers but still expects them to have the DCs that are then expected to pay for everyone's else's old age.

(It's not just about pensions. It's social care. A&E admissions. Housing)

Children are necessary for ALL of society, they aren't an individual indulgence of the parents.

The OP on that thread was being wildly unrealistic, but you're not wrong.

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 10:50

@happybluefern Yes this particular couples parenting is not what I'd ever endorse. I wasn't surprised they'd been assessed by social services.

It's more about their overall philosophy about being positive about wanting to parent more than 2.4 DCs.

OP posts:
happybluefern · 25/05/2024 10:50

Oh ffs humans aren’t going to go extinct

HellonHeels · 25/05/2024 10:49

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 09:59

Good god, no it wouldn’t. You’d rather just another desolate planet like all the others in the solar system?

It won't be a desolate planet. The point is that humanity dying out might allow the planet to regenerate and recover from all the harm we've done. No humans present doesn't equal desolation.

Carebearsonmybed · 25/05/2024 10:47

@FluentRubyDog

Extinction is inevitable if the population continues to decline.

Back in 2004 the UN predicted the 2300 global population could be as low as 2.3 billion and falling. We are at a higher point on that prediction atm but birth rates have decreased faster than anyone predicted so the downward curve will be steeper than they predicted.

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un20022worldpopulationnto_2300.pdf

OP posts:
WoshPank · 25/05/2024 10:47

DunkinBensDonuts · 25/05/2024 10:19

Were they interviewed direct from Gilead?

They are atheist. Kind of a different breed of pronatalist

Yep!

And that's actually quite an important part of their point. Odd as they are, they're not wrong that secular rationalist people like them are having many fewer kids than the more religious. That some values are much more likely to be transmitted to a next generation than others.

GrumpyPanda · 25/05/2024 10:37

MichaelAndEagle · 25/05/2024 09:46

Isn't the solution to have a sensible immigration policy?
Lots of countries have a growing population, a much younger population and plenty of people who want to work and pay taxes in the UK.

That's only a short-term fix - fertility rates among immigrant groups typically adjust to the level of the host country.

rainfordays · 25/05/2024 10:37

I don't get why you think a "crisis of eldery people" is going to be the biggest issue we face in coming decades. You're looking at the wrong problem.

The fact is that the planet cannot support an ever-growing global population, in terms of fresh water availability and land needed for food production. The ONLY sensible solution, especially given the climate crisis that's well underway and is impacting food production globally already, is to discuss global population reduction - but nobody wants to because it would be political suicide.

If you're interested in a short, informative read, try a book called Ten Billion by Stephen Emmott for something that may provide you a different view.

Arlott · 25/05/2024 10:37

I read that in South Korea the birth rate is so low they could be almost extinct in four generations. Obviously they aren’t solving this problem by making it easier for women 🙄

TemuSpecialBuy · 25/05/2024 10:34

They are weirdos but have a point.

its already widely known birth rate is a time bomb.

the expense and difficulty of having children is a huge factor.

due to economics people “have” to wait until later and thus have fewer children.

i saw such an interesting YouTube video on this.
the channel is two guys and their interviewed an economist about it. The trend started in Japan who are further ahead but it is going to be pretty catastrophic for all western societies.

i predict uk will move to universal basic income at some point

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