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If Labour get in, will house prices fall?

112 replies

DontCheetoTheCheetah · 18/05/2024 09:44

Well will they?

OP posts:
helpfulperson · 18/05/2024 11:40

DontCheetoTheCheetah · 18/05/2024 09:57

@WonderingWanda
Sorry I am pretty economically ignorant. How do you shake off a recession once and for all?

You don't. Countries go in and out of recession regularly. It just happens its been a few years since the UK had one.

MidnightMeltdown · 18/05/2024 11:38

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:11

But we don't need that many houses. Once the boomer generation are gone our population levels decline rapidly. So what we are at risk of doing is building excessively, losing our green spaces and farm land then will be in a situation of having too much housing stock.

Once the boomer generation are gone our population levels decline rapidly.

Will they? Looking at population statistics I don't think that's a foregone conclusion.

Besides, the UK will just keep importing more people to replace them.

If Labour get in, will house prices fall?
FancyBiscuitsLevel · 18/05/2024 11:37

Unlikely nationwide, if you live in an area where a significant number of properties are Airbnb /holiday homes/second homes, then possibly, but any restrictions on holiday lets/second homes won’t have a significant overall effect.

MrsSkylerWhite · 18/05/2024 11:30

No. Supply and demand.

canp · 18/05/2024 11:30

I think there is such intense pressure on housing that prices won't fall.

I think that what could become a bigger issue is trying to find a private rental. I have a relative currently looking for one (as current landlord wants to sell and has given notice). But there is absolutely nothing to rent near work.

I think clamping down or taxing the hell out of BTL or whatever will have unexpected consequences.

Kitkat1523 · 18/05/2024 11:24

DontCheetoTheCheetah · 18/05/2024 09:57

@WonderingWanda
Sorry I am pretty economically ignorant. How do you shake off a recession once and for all?

Very slowly

MidnightMeltdown · 18/05/2024 11:22

Definitely not.

Immigration is likely to increase under Labour and so pressure on housing will be greater.

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:21

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:14

Because they have unrealistic expectations (I'm not old myself). Many people want their first property to be a 3 bed detached house in a prime location - you only have to read threads on here and the property boards to see what people are looking for. Gone are the days of buying a bedsit/one bed and sticking to what you can afford. We appear to have moved into a society of over reaching then complaining when it all gets a bit too much.

Actually will concede you are right here on expectations. We had some young couples look round our house and honestly it was like they’d not settle for anything less than a castle with a moat round it. They were mostly in tiny rentals and were in a position to buy a family home, but no, grass is always greener.

That said, we are still short of a few millions homes.

EwwSprouts · 18/05/2024 11:19

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:11

The stats don’t back you up there. Young, single people generally can’t buy.

Single people are not all young! The newly divorced for example. Also my aged parents have just 'downsized' from a 3 bed to a 4 bed because they wanted to stay in the same town and there was so little on the market.

Timee · 18/05/2024 11:18

It would be nice if they did but unlikely unless they throw us into a huge recession.
House prices will never fall in the SE because the population grows and there is insufficient supply.
Cheaper areas to live have more stable house prices already.

PiHanLot · 18/05/2024 11:15

What would be helpful is if interest rates could fall which would make borrowing more affordable for people but whenever that happens house prices go up.

Agree with this. We are in our 50s and bought our first house nearly 30 years ago. House was much cheaper in terms of ratio to salary than would be now but the interest rate on our mortgage was more than double what it would be now

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:14

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:11

The stats don’t back you up there. Young, single people generally can’t buy.

Because they have unrealistic expectations (I'm not old myself). Many people want their first property to be a 3 bed detached house in a prime location - you only have to read threads on here and the property boards to see what people are looking for. Gone are the days of buying a bedsit/one bed and sticking to what you can afford. We appear to have moved into a society of over reaching then complaining when it all gets a bit too much.

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:11

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:07

We aren't short of homes, what we are full of is single people buying up family sized homes as sole occupants. You can't really legislate against that because people will buy what they like and what they can afford, but the housing stock is there it's just got issues with occupancy.

The stats don’t back you up there. Young, single people generally can’t buy.

Barleypilaf · 18/05/2024 11:11

I expect house prices to stagnate in nominal terms as they are now so unaffordable that the ‘housing ladder’ has gone. Maybe in 10 years, when baby boomers start dying/moving into care homes there may be a glut of family homes becoming available.

Otherwise they’ll stay pretty constant in nominal terms, but fall in real terms after adjusting for inflation.

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:11

But we don't need that many houses. Once the boomer generation are gone our population levels decline rapidly. So what we are at risk of doing is building excessively, losing our green spaces and farm land then will be in a situation of having too much housing stock.

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:10

MidnightPatrol · 18/05/2024 11:01

House prices in the UK are only realistically going to fall (and people be able to afford them) if there is a huge house building programme.

Labour might do this - but, I fear it will take so long to ‘catch up’ with where we need to be, it wont help most young adults today.

We have reached the point of no return. We’d need to build 350k houses a year for at least a decade. We struggle to build 100k houses and that’s in a good year. We lack the infrastructure, voting power and willpower to ever build enough houses.

How many young people will never move out of the family home or start families. How many families in bedsits. Shocking. There is literally no hope. What will see is a two tier society developing divided by the haves and have nots. Perhaps, 10 years from now, encampments in public spaces.

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:07

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:04

We’re short of a few million homes. This is due to post war, restrictive planning laws (1947, Labour government) plus other factors such as: family break ups, amazingly high immigration, incentives for the elderly to remain in large houses (e.g subsidised fuel bills), landbanking by the main housebuilders.

Re rent controls - the Scottish situation tells us what will happen here. It won’t help, likely to make the situation worse.

The incoming Labour government have talked about ditching the Rwanda scheme. Their solution to ‘stop the boats’ is to increase safe legal routes into the UK. My prediction is that they will enter into a European pact to take a proportion of illegals coming into Greece and Germany, for example. They have not said anything about stemmings the 100s of 1000s coming in via student visa (and their families) as far as I’m aware.

Obviously, we need to be welcoming and kind, but the sheers maths of the situation is not good.

I think we will see a resurgence of houses being divided into smaller units, more HMOs, higher house prices, increased rents. One thing that is worrying me is this scheme https://www.serco.com/uk/sites/serco-aasc/landlords because, if I were a landlord, why would I rent to locals who may or may not pay the rent (and whom I can’t evict) when I could sign up for 5 years’ guaranteed rent, maintenance and guaranteed vacating of property at the end of the term? This scheme, if it were to expand, would seriously reduce rental stock for people who already live here.

We aren't short of homes, what we are full of is single people buying up family sized homes as sole occupants. You can't really legislate against that because people will buy what they like and what they can afford, but the housing stock is there it's just got issues with occupancy.

Democracymanifest · 18/05/2024 11:05

MidnightPatrol · 18/05/2024 11:01

House prices in the UK are only realistically going to fall (and people be able to afford them) if there is a huge house building programme.

Labour might do this - but, I fear it will take so long to ‘catch up’ with where we need to be, it wont help most young adults today.

Labour did it last time and turned much of the south of England into a concrete jungle of new build houses that were and still are sold for £500k+!

Building more houses won't fix the problem. Encouraging businesses into areas outside of the south east and spreading the housing crisis round the country and out of (not just south east) cities will.

HFJ · 18/05/2024 11:04

We’re short of a few million homes. This is due to post war, restrictive planning laws (1947, Labour government) plus other factors such as: family break ups, amazingly high immigration, incentives for the elderly to remain in large houses (e.g subsidised fuel bills), landbanking by the main housebuilders.

Re rent controls - the Scottish situation tells us what will happen here. It won’t help, likely to make the situation worse.

The incoming Labour government have talked about ditching the Rwanda scheme. Their solution to ‘stop the boats’ is to increase safe legal routes into the UK. My prediction is that they will enter into a European pact to take a proportion of illegals coming into Greece and Germany, for example. They have not said anything about stemmings the 100s of 1000s coming in via student visa (and their families) as far as I’m aware.

Obviously, we need to be welcoming and kind, but the sheers maths of the situation is not good.

I think we will see a resurgence of houses being divided into smaller units, more HMOs, higher house prices, increased rents. One thing that is worrying me is this scheme https://www.serco.com/uk/sites/serco-aasc/landlords because, if I were a landlord, why would I rent to locals who may or may not pay the rent (and whom I can’t evict) when I could sign up for 5 years’ guaranteed rent, maintenance and guaranteed vacating of property at the end of the term? This scheme, if it were to expand, would seriously reduce rental stock for people who already live here.

MidnightPatrol · 18/05/2024 11:03

Cattenberg · 18/05/2024 10:55

House prices rose stratospherically under the last Labour government and Labour didn’t care that many young adults could no longer afford to buy a home.

I was interested to read that if all prices had risen at the same rate as house prices, as of 2022 a duvet would cost £1,448, a kilo of bananas would cost nearly £10, and the average UK salary would be £96,579.

https://www.idealhome.co.uk/news/everyday-items-cost-if-matched-house-price-inflation-288496

Indeed.

I was a child at that time - but my understanding is that broadly it was seen as a good thing that prices were increasing, as everyone suddenly felt they were much wealthier.

Was there any debate at the time about the eventual issue of affordability? I’m not sure any government is able to look beyond their 5 year term tbh.

MidnightPatrol · 18/05/2024 11:01

House prices in the UK are only realistically going to fall (and people be able to afford them) if there is a huge house building programme.

Labour might do this - but, I fear it will take so long to ‘catch up’ with where we need to be, it wont help most young adults today.

Snazzysausage · 18/05/2024 11:01

This reply has been deleted

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

Sorry wrong thread

Snazzysausage · 18/05/2024 11:00

This reply has been withdrawn

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

Cattenberg · 18/05/2024 10:59

Those who think the government have no control over housing affordability are wrong. The government have a long-term plan for the building of new homes and infrastructure. They are also responsible for planning legislation.

Nouvellenovel · 18/05/2024 10:57

Cattenberg · 18/05/2024 10:55

House prices rose stratospherically under the last Labour government and Labour didn’t care that many young adults could no longer afford to buy a home.

I was interested to read that if all prices had risen at the same rate as house prices, as of 2022 a duvet would cost £1,448, a kilo of bananas would cost nearly £10, and the average UK salary would be £96,579.

https://www.idealhome.co.uk/news/everyday-items-cost-if-matched-house-price-inflation-288496

😯. That’s shocking.

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