Does Trump increase or decrease ww3 risk?

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if war is gonna happen its gonna happen.
Might not happen or it might happen who knows.
Either way i dont care i dont have anything to lose.

I think he's unpredictable - he could pull the plug on NATO, or he could do a complete u-turn and start posting rambling tweets about his really big bombs that will vaporise the Kremlin the second one Russian soldier steps a toe over the Estonian border. If he's unpredictable enough, it might actually deter Putin from further aggression (albeit probably at the cost of scaring the shit out of everyone else in the meantime). But I think the former is more likely, in which case Europe is really in trouble. IMO the risk of a wide-scale conventional war is much higher under Trump, but the chance of a negotiated peace 'agreement' - that Ukraine is basically forced into against their will - also slightly higher.

Under Biden, I think it's more likely the current war would continue to grind on as it has been with the same risks of accidental or deliberate escalation we've seen up til now. The risk of a localised or global nuclear war is slightly higher under Biden IMO, as the conflict drags on and Russia gets increasingly frustrated. Then there's still the issue of what happens in two or four years' time after the next elections, so in a way it's just kicking the can down the road, but that does at least give Europe a bit more time to prepare - as long as Europeam leaders actually capitalise on it, and not just heave a sigh of relief that Trump is out and they can stop thinking about it. My faith is not very strong that they would tbh.

In summary I'd say neither option is good, but a Trump presidency would be what Putin wants, and second term for Biden would probably still be a less worse outcome for Europe as a whole.

Increase

I think it's less likely we'll have another world war if Trump is in charge. He's just not interested in foreign wars, MAGA is about America first, not European, Asian, African or Middle East affairs.

He was the first president in decades not to commit US troops to a new foreign war/intervention.

The only danger with Trump is if he pulls the US out of NATO, it would be a green light for Russia to invade Finland for example and would be a real test for the rest of NATO.

What I think we need is a two-tier NATO, one for traditional members like the UK, US, France etc, and one for eastern European members. Tier 1 members only have to get involved if one of their own is attacked, tier 2 members have to get involved if anyone in either tier is attacked. This would make it easier for Western Europe to stay out of conflicts like the one in Ukraine if they were to occur in NATO countries.

Agree with @anniegun

everything will be fine if trump wins, this is the man who thought a nuclear weapon might stop a tornado. Isn’t Mr Trump a sex offender as well.

He was the only president in modern times that didn't lead the US into invading/heavily funding a foreign war, so track record suggests no.

Although I do think he'd pull funding from Ukraine, so that conflict would probably escalate, so maybe yes, but through non-intervention rather than intervention iyswim.

In all likelihood Putin has videos of Trump that Trump would not want the world to see. Putin does NOT respect Trump, he sees him as his puppet who would throw Ukraine under a bus and facilitate Putin's ambitions to recreate the Soviet Union. He is very, very dangerous to world peace.

Increases the chances massively. Although you could argue that war with Russia with the US sat back saying they want nothing to do with it means its just a European War

Putin doesn't see Trump as a strong leader; just a strong ally. Trump in office is the worst idea on ALL fronts.

Trump is anarchy.