Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Does Trump increase or decrease ww3 risk?

115 replies

ChedderGorgeous · 29/01/2024 13:04

NATO chiefs said Europe should prepare for world war 3 with Russia within 3 years. Trump famously wants to pull put of NATO, however, last time round he actually increased spending of US for NATO. It's all very hard to predict, but you could argue Putin would see Trump as a "stronger" leader than sleepy Joe and that's all that Putin respects. AIBU to say that Trump could be better for global stability despite all his huge negatives.

OP posts:
CoatRack · 30/01/2024 22:55

WinterMorn · 30/01/2024 00:43

Ah, CoatRack makes an appearance, with the same interesting quality of contributions.

Maybe one day you too will make something approaching a salient point 🤞

Aaaalrightythen · 30/01/2024 22:26

I can't imagine Trump speaking "some big words"
I heard him on the radio rambling about corn. He apparently renamed it "liquid gold" (why use one descriptive name when you can confuse with two?) which everyone thought was very very clever, of course, and we are all going to start calling it that now, even though he knows really liquid gold is actually oil, OK?
He's batty and can barely handle a full sentence, rarely one that makes sense. Long words will not be happening.

WinterMorn · 30/01/2024 21:53

That’s an interesting post Kendodd and the sort of outcome I can see happening, as awful as it is.

Kendodd · 30/01/2024 21:33

I think both increase and decrease likelihood of war.
I think he'll make a deal with Putin that Russia can have half of Ukraine. Trump will call this peace and hail it a big success. Most of the rest of Europe will go along with it because its too much bother not to. I don't think Putin will then try to expand further. He got his fingers massively burnt in Ukraine and I don't think he'd want to risk it again. I think he'd be relieved it's over.

Israel/Gaza is a much bigger challenge for Trump and I think this is were things could go badly wrong. People have described Trump as antisemitic, I don't think he is, I actually think he's a big supporter of Israel and he favourite child is a Jewish convert. I think he'll throw US weight behind Israel (in Israel, Iran, Yemen and Red Sea), partly just to action out his hatred of Muslims. Of course the UK will lap dog support him in this although I think few other countries will. This could turn into a real mess and massively increase terrorism around in the west.

In China/Taiwan and Korean peninsula, I think he'll lose interest so they can do whatever they want. We'll speak big words, maybe some sanctions, little else.

WinterMorn · 30/01/2024 20:46

Yes, because that obviously means Trump can’t do anything beneficial to help ‘his people’, doesn’t it 😐

itwasntmetho · 30/01/2024 20:18

Yeah you’re right, I’ve seen the error of my ways.
Best to keep funnelling those peoples cash into a corrupt proxy war.

Emily1583 · 30/01/2024 20:14

Difficult to say really. Not sure about his NATO withdrawal noises but he seemed to do well with North Korea. I do think Biden is physically unfit to be president though. Surely the US can do better than another run off between Biden and Trump.

WinterMorn · 30/01/2024 20:05

itwasntmetho · 30/01/2024 19:56

Putin’s plan was to conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2020, build up an army and resources there for a few years, then conquer the rest of the ex Soviet bloc, then use the conquered peoples as conscripted soldiers to conquer/dominate the rest of Europe.

Did he tell you that?
If Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine in a few days he probably could have.

Putin wants Ukraine to stay neutral and not join NATO, he wanted the Minsk Accords upheld.

If Trump cut funding for the Ukraine war then that's in the best interests of the American tax payer who's money this actually is. Leaders are supposed to serve their own nation first. Americans don't have health care, their cities are struggling, they have a massive homeless problem, high crime rates.

The tax payers of Lahaina, Hawaii had fuck all help after their town was incinerated in a fire last year, the residents of East Palestine, Ohio had a really insulting amount of compensation something like $200 each when a train derailed spilling toxic chemicals known to cause cancer and contaminating their land. Animals half a mile away were dying and the residents didn't have the means to leave. These are the people who's taxes people think Ukraine is entitled to.

Does nobody wonder if Biden sending the American peoples money to the most corrupt country in Europe, when America badly needs investment is one of the things that makes Trump such an attractive option to them?

Trump wont save the world, some people are bonkers about him and think he will bring about world peace or something, but he will invest in his own people. That's what I would be looking for if I was a voter.

Yeah but……exceptionalism doesn’t really cut it in todays complex world.

itwasntmetho · 30/01/2024 19:56

Putin’s plan was to conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2020, build up an army and resources there for a few years, then conquer the rest of the ex Soviet bloc, then use the conquered peoples as conscripted soldiers to conquer/dominate the rest of Europe.

Did he tell you that?
If Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine in a few days he probably could have.

Putin wants Ukraine to stay neutral and not join NATO, he wanted the Minsk Accords upheld.

If Trump cut funding for the Ukraine war then that's in the best interests of the American tax payer who's money this actually is. Leaders are supposed to serve their own nation first. Americans don't have health care, their cities are struggling, they have a massive homeless problem, high crime rates.

The tax payers of Lahaina, Hawaii had fuck all help after their town was incinerated in a fire last year, the residents of East Palestine, Ohio had a really insulting amount of compensation something like $200 each when a train derailed spilling toxic chemicals known to cause cancer and contaminating their land. Animals half a mile away were dying and the residents didn't have the means to leave. These are the people who's taxes people think Ukraine is entitled to.

Does nobody wonder if Biden sending the American peoples money to the most corrupt country in Europe, when America badly needs investment is one of the things that makes Trump such an attractive option to them?

Trump wont save the world, some people are bonkers about him and think he will bring about world peace or something, but he will invest in his own people. That's what I would be looking for if I was a voter.

LettersToHogwarts · 30/01/2024 19:10

You know last time around when everyone was gobsmacked about Trump becoming POTUS? Well if it happens again, it will be seriously, very bad news for Europeans, not just an opportunity for silly memes and virtue signalling.

spicedlemonpie · 30/01/2024 19:06

AgnesX · 30/01/2024 13:17

Your previous post wasn't exactly explicit, the above even less. Care to elaborate on what it might actually mean?

What it means is i dont care.

AgnesX · 30/01/2024 13:17

spicedlemonpie · 30/01/2024 12:56

Ive got about a year left pushing it if i keep up with the pills thanks petal.

Your previous post wasn't exactly explicit, the above even less. Care to elaborate on what it might actually mean?

spicedlemonpie · 30/01/2024 13:00

Catpuss66 · 30/01/2024 02:11

Unsure of what you mean you have nothing to lose, universal credit would stop, food would be rationed no kfc, no electrify , no heating petrol would be rationed. Men would be conscripted actually women too. I actually think there is a lot to lose it took a generation to recover after the last war might take longer this time even if we win.

What i mean is i dont care i have already quoted on someone else taking pills i think that says it all.
Live while you can life is not promised.

spicedlemonpie · 30/01/2024 12:56

AgnesX · 30/01/2024 08:37

Keep on taking the pills petal 💊

Ive got about a year left pushing it if i keep up with the pills thanks petal.

Elisj · 30/01/2024 10:08

Here’s how I see it.

Putin’s plan was to conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2020, build up an army and resources there for a few years, then conquer the rest of the ex Soviet bloc, then use the conquered peoples as conscripted soldiers to conquer/dominate the rest of Europe.

As part of this, Putin’s intelligence services put huge effort into

  1. weakening the EU (Brexit and causing constant waves of illegal immigration)

and

  1. getting Trump elected, for two reasons: (A) Trump would not have helped Ukraine / Europe, making a Putin victory there likely, and (B) Trump weakens NATO and confuses domestic America, making it easier for Russia-China to become the world powers instead of America-Europe.

Unfortunately for Putin, covid happened in 2020, and so he had to delay the invasion of Ukraine. By the time Putin was able to invade Ukraine, Trump was out of power, and Biden/Europe rallied around Ukraine (because they know that if Ukraine falls that is the beginning of America-Europe falling).

But Putin can’t just shrug and give up, he’s under huge pressure from his people to win. So what he wants now is Trump back in power, so that Trump (who is well aware of the favours he owes Putin) will stop sending weapons and money to Ukraine and look the other way on Europe.

If Trump gets in, he’ll abandon Ukraine/Europe to Russia, and rule a much less powerful America, which is fine with Trump as the price of power. Ivanka would probably be President after him. So that wouldn’t exactly be WW3 (as America wouldn’t be involved) but it does mean a Europe controlled by Russia and a family dynasty of questionable ethics ruling America.

If Trump doesn’t get in, America will continue to support Ukraine and resist Russia’s attempts to control Europe. Which might mean WW3 unless a deal can be struck with Putin or he gets removed by his own people.

So whether or not Trump gets in, neither scenario is good for Europe.

China has been increasingly aggressive with Taiwan (and Hong Kong) and so is presumably waiting until Europe/America are completely bogged down fighting Russia before China invades Taiwan.

What I’m not sure is where the sudden increase in Middle East violence fits into this. But it will fit in. Perhaps the purpose of the attack on Israel (which we’re told was sponsored by Iran, but which certainly came at the perfect time for Putin 👀) and the inevitable horrific reprisal, was to prevent Biden getting his next chunk of money to send weapons to Ukraine. In which case it worked.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 30/01/2024 09:07

I'm sure the Tories have training camps for the likes of Bravaman, Priti in fairly early youth where they get to fire paintballs at figures that pop up not clutching a UK passport, sinking boats, spouting about "controll" and "taking our country back" etc

😂😂😂bit like Hitler Youth camps.

l don’t understand why the US can’t put forward any younger candidates either!

Aaaalrightythen · 30/01/2024 08:55

I'm still struggling to understand how US, out of the millions of citizens, can't find anyone to run their country other than two geriatric incompetents. I mean, did they forget to fund the younger generation/up-and-coming in politics while Clinton was in or something? I'm sure the Tories have training camps for the likes of Bravaman, Priti in fairly early youth where they get to fire paintballs at figures that pop up not clutching a UK passport, sinking boats, spouting about "controll" and "taking our country back" etc. We've managed a constant cycle of PM's we've not even voted for as a result! What happened with US?

AgnesX · 30/01/2024 08:37

spicedlemonpie · 29/01/2024 14:28

if war is gonna happen its gonna happen.
Might not happen or it might happen who knows.
Either way i dont care i dont have anything to lose.

Keep on taking the pills petal 💊

EasternEcho · 30/01/2024 08:37

@TheThingIsYeah I believe we need to take that warning in context of his broader speech where his main gripe was that countries like Germany were willing to fill Russia's coffers but not giving more money to NATO. I take it as more of a shot at Germany than a rebuke of Russia. It is also interesting that that he said this days before his meeting with Putin which was held in secret as were subsequent meetings, with no record of anything that was said between them which is highly unusual. Trump has been quite effusive in his praise of Putin in general.

Hereyoume · 30/01/2024 08:33

Decrease.

Strong leaders stop weak one's from trying to gain power. Where there is a power vacuum, weak, unpredictable leaders will seek to exploit it. And usually they do so successfully, thereby gaining strength. Too many people seeking to assert dominance over a region will lead to tension, as is happening right now in Europe and the Middle East.

A strong, decisive leader (even if they are not popular) will be able to keep peace. Look at Saddam, he was never going to win a Noble Peace Prize, but he did keep the region in check.

Mayorq · 30/01/2024 08:26

"The man is a billionaire"

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

TheThingIsYeah · 30/01/2024 07:50

Russia's puppet? Is this the same Trump that warned Western countries (Germany in particular) 5 years ago they were becoming totally energy dependent on Russia and needed to change tack? The one where the Germans all laughed at him. I wonder how that turned out.

CormorantStrikesBack · 30/01/2024 07:31

I th8nk the USA has recently passed a law meaning now a president can’t unilaterally pull USA out of nato. So he might find leaving nato difficult. No idea if he can repeal that law somehow. Or what happens if nato goes to war and the USA is in nato and the president just refuses to participate 🤷‍♀️

EasternStandard · 30/01/2024 07:31

It’s hard to know

Currently using wars with Biden as a campaigning strategy but could be an issue with NATO

It could be either - hopefully the less volatile one

Bululu · 30/01/2024 07:29

@Wallaw well you obviously you think that you are much clever than others because you are against Trump. Sad that you need to insult me to make your point. You are part of the reason he will get back as president of the US this year.