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To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

471 replies

flashbac · 27/11/2023 09:45

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

OP posts:
jasflowers · 29/11/2023 16:20

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 14:43

If it were that easy we wouldn’t be seeing what we are, multiple countries struggling with migration issues. And it will increase.

There 3/4 million migrants in Libya alone, considering the numbers crossing the Med, something is still deterring them.

atm law enforcement is all we have.

Though we could use parts of the Channel Islands for off shore camps/processing, yes costs in rehousing whoever is still on Sark but more probable than Rwanda.

user1497207191 · 29/11/2023 15:37

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 29/11/2023 13:40

If you do want a deterrent what are you thinking of?
We need a massive investment in law enforcement- it is ridiculously easy to disappear from radar and work illegally in the UK because there is zero enforcement of most laws. Foreign fraudsters are registering thousands of bogus limited companies every year, the high streets are full of dubious businesses - all could be addressed if we had personnel and resources dedicated to proper enforcement.

Nail on the head. It's usually only when there's some kind of major disaster, i.e. all those Chinese cockle pickers who died in Morecambe Bay, that any action is taken. Locals could see what was happening in the weeks and months leading up to it. The police, council and other authorities did absolutely bugger all to prevent the almost inevitable disaster. Everyone knew they were virtual slaves, everyone knew it was dangerous out on the sands. There were letters in the local press. People had written to the local MP about it. Then the morning after the disaster, we had police and the MP all over the media saying how awful it was, blah blah blah, yet those people could and should have taken action to prevent it!

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 14:43

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 14:23

Well, i disagree, what you re basically saying is international co op on crime doesn't work, yet it does, Europe had cross border terrorism, Spain was once a bolt hole for criminals, recently a paedophile gang smashed, extradition is well used tool.

Doesn't help matters though when you come out of EU law enforcement agencies though & deliberately and continually piss off our neighbours.

But the migrants start from N. Africa, UK need to commit to contribute to the EU funds to assist Tunisia, help get stable govt in Libya and get UK ships in the med too, tow back where possible.

ATM we don't help at all.

On Rwanda, they don't have space for 10k plus migrants, so are no deterrent, once they can handle that number, then maybe.

If it were that easy we wouldn’t be seeing what we are, multiple countries struggling with migration issues. And it will increase.

Abhannmor · 29/11/2023 14:43

Milliband has similar politics to Starmer but is more 'papabile' I guess ? When his brother led the party the Tory press was full of dog whistles about ' rootless cosmopolitans' from the ' North London intelligentsia'.

I imagine they'd just pick up where they left off. Despite having spent the last 8 years accusing Labour of antisemitism. To be a Tory hack all you need is a neck like a jockey's bollocks.

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 29/11/2023 14:39

. A pipe dream I know.
Just slightly.
You name a load of people and then say stop making it about personalities.
It’s Rayner.

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 14:29

@Weddingpuzzle just a couple of things, Ken Clark is a hard right Thatcherite politician, he was vehemently opposed to giving nurses a pay rise as he said it would "fuel inflation" fuck that they use food banks.

He'd advocate the break up of the NHS and would wish to have even more anti union laws, same with Javid.

Ellwood recently praised the Taliban and said they 'd transformed the country for the better!!!!

Gove? ffs look what he did in Education.

I hope your pipe dream stays exactly that!

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 14:23

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 13:48

We won’t be able to battle it that way. France, Germany, Italy and so on have different systems and that won’t stop the increasing issues either.

Well, i disagree, what you re basically saying is international co op on crime doesn't work, yet it does, Europe had cross border terrorism, Spain was once a bolt hole for criminals, recently a paedophile gang smashed, extradition is well used tool.

Doesn't help matters though when you come out of EU law enforcement agencies though & deliberately and continually piss off our neighbours.

But the migrants start from N. Africa, UK need to commit to contribute to the EU funds to assist Tunisia, help get stable govt in Libya and get UK ships in the med too, tow back where possible.

ATM we don't help at all.

On Rwanda, they don't have space for 10k plus migrants, so are no deterrent, once they can handle that number, then maybe.

Desecratedcoconut · 29/11/2023 14:06

I want David Milliband to rock up like a forgotten character on a long running soap and take the reins. It is Christmas 🤷

Weddingpuzzle · 29/11/2023 14:04

I am hoping for Rory Stewart as Prime Minister with a Labour/Green coalition government Grin

Get rid of Lisa Nandy (useless), put Barry Gardiner somewhere that deals with work and pensions and with trade unions, get Alan Haworth back from the Lords and put him in charge of commerce and business (growth) put Starmer in as Home Sec. Bring back Ken Clarke or Sajid Javid(?) as chancellor of exchequer, Tobias Ellwood on Defence, use Angela Raynor's mouth for a bit of good and put her in ministerial portfolio for women, keep Rachel Reeves as maybe Foreign Sec? Put Caroline Williamson in as Minister for Climate. Put Michael Gove in for Levelling Up and give him a budget. Put Andy Burnham in as minister for Education. Put Sadiq Khan in as Minister for Health. Make them all sign contracts to NOT CHANGE ROLES for the entire length of government. Stop making politics a personality contest, root out nepotism and start job matching to people's skills instead of automatically giving jobs to Etonians who have people lobbying the shit out of them or those who have a PPE degree from Oxford/Cambridge. Rory Stewart can be the puppet master instead of being the puppet and bring a bit of governing back into the government instead of it being a big game that impacts on us and our money and our lives. A pipe dream I know.

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 13:48

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 29/11/2023 13:40

If you do want a deterrent what are you thinking of?
We need a massive investment in law enforcement- it is ridiculously easy to disappear from radar and work illegally in the UK because there is zero enforcement of most laws. Foreign fraudsters are registering thousands of bogus limited companies every year, the high streets are full of dubious businesses - all could be addressed if we had personnel and resources dedicated to proper enforcement.

We won’t be able to battle it that way. France, Germany, Italy and so on have different systems and that won’t stop the increasing issues either.

Finallybreathe · 29/11/2023 13:45

I agree. I won’t be voting for Labour but I won’t be voting Tories either… who knows what I’ll do on the day!

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 29/11/2023 13:41

TodayInahurry · 29/11/2023 12:56

Many people are very disturbed about the pro-Palestine demos that seem to have been allowed, despite the current ceasefire. They are allowed to intimidate Jewish and UK citizens every Saturday. Starmer is grovelling to them because of their votes. Does not give us hope for future Labour governments policies.

Starmer is grovelling - want a load of shit.
His outlook is the same as Rishi’s so if he is grovelling, so is Rishi.

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 29/11/2023 13:40

If you do want a deterrent what are you thinking of?
We need a massive investment in law enforcement- it is ridiculously easy to disappear from radar and work illegally in the UK because there is zero enforcement of most laws. Foreign fraudsters are registering thousands of bogus limited companies every year, the high streets are full of dubious businesses - all could be addressed if we had personnel and resources dedicated to proper enforcement.

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 13:15

TodayInahurry · 29/11/2023 12:56

Many people are very disturbed about the pro-Palestine demos that seem to have been allowed, despite the current ceasefire. They are allowed to intimidate Jewish and UK citizens every Saturday. Starmer is grovelling to them because of their votes. Does not give us hope for future Labour governments policies.

Err these demonstrations are happening under the Tories, you do realise he isn't PM and the same demonstrations are happening in many cities across the uk.

Police can only act within the law, law set by, you guessed it, the Tories.

TodayInahurry · 29/11/2023 12:56

Many people are very disturbed about the pro-Palestine demos that seem to have been allowed, despite the current ceasefire. They are allowed to intimidate Jewish and UK citizens every Saturday. Starmer is grovelling to them because of their votes. Does not give us hope for future Labour governments policies.

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 12:53

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 12:49

@EasternStandard We ve zero influence with the EU, let alone France.

Migrants are trafficked far beyond the shores of France, and the EU have no reason to help the UK, infact the opposite, given as you say, the EU have their own electoral reasons, so we need to be able to see beyond the Elgin marbles and look at the bigger picture.

Of course returns are vital, people will keep coming to any country if they know they have a great chance of being able to stay, you physically cannot lock them up forever.

Look, i agree with you on deterrents (no one wants drowning in the Channel or the Med) BUT Rwanda isn't one, unless that particular country can process 10k plus.

They do actually patrol the beaches to a fair degree using a range of surveillance

But it won’t get everyone

Alternate location is the one thing that is allowed within an international set up created at a time when pressures were very different. Hence Aus staying within the law

If you do want a deterrent what are you thinking of?

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 12:49

@EasternStandard We ve zero influence with the EU, let alone France.

Migrants are trafficked far beyond the shores of France, and the EU have no reason to help the UK, infact the opposite, given as you say, the EU have their own electoral reasons, so we need to be able to see beyond the Elgin marbles and look at the bigger picture.

Of course returns are vital, people will keep coming to any country if they know they have a great chance of being able to stay, you physically cannot lock them up forever.

Look, i agree with you on deterrents (no one wants drowning in the Channel or the Med) BUT Rwanda isn't one, unless that particular country can process 10k plus.

EasternStandard · 29/11/2023 12:42

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 12:26

As i ve said @EasternStandard to you before, how does changing the law help or new treaties?

So lets say just 20% of 100k claims are accepted, what do you do with the remain 80% ?

Their countries of origin are not accepting returns in many cases, even saying they will be imprisoned if they ever were to return.

Rwanda can't accept the numbers required to be a deterrent.

Falling out with an EU country, as Sunak as just managed, is hardly likely to help with returns, co op on trafficking gangs or boat supplies.

This idea of ‘returns’ that keeps cropping up.. it’s not in line with a changing situation.

There is co operation on traffickers, look up what the French do on their beaches already, you cannot get everyone.

EU countries are saying no to Italy, any suggestion from us went down like a lead balloon recently, the response from France - ‘we’ve got our own problems’. They do, most EU countries do hence election results.

Everyone will be struggling with this. We’re seeing the start of public disorder on the back of it.

Either we use the law as available - which currently is only alternative location or the law changes

It won’t be just us that pushes for either or both.

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 12:26

EasternStandard · 28/11/2023 17:58

It is possible within the law as it currently stands. Aus did it. Neither party will reverse that even with Labor in. Lucky lot getting through this blind spot with the electorate.

International law changing is of course something else I’ve mentioned a fair few times. Post war set up won’t cope.

That’s still removed from the lack of any ability to discuss it beyond ‘it’s a distraction’ or ‘culture wars’ - how ridiculous given what we are facing, that’s the media for you.

If people pick up the world news it’s probably a good idea. The BBC and Guardian will take a lot to shift from current position, so go to world political and societal events and why it’s happening,

But it's clear that in the UK, this issue has peaked

This will not age well. I’m really surprised people believe it given the general direction of migration figures.

As i ve said @EasternStandard to you before, how does changing the law help or new treaties?

So lets say just 20% of 100k claims are accepted, what do you do with the remain 80% ?

Their countries of origin are not accepting returns in many cases, even saying they will be imprisoned if they ever were to return.

Rwanda can't accept the numbers required to be a deterrent.

Falling out with an EU country, as Sunak as just managed, is hardly likely to help with returns, co op on trafficking gangs or boat supplies.

BIossomtoes · 29/11/2023 12:18

Right wing parties are less ideological and more electorally practical - they do what needs to be done to retain power.

The current government is far from stable, they’re fighting like rats in a sack and with Reform coming up on the rails to split the right wing vote they should be very worried indeed.

SunsetOverEasterIsland · 29/11/2023 11:28

cheezncrackers · 27/11/2023 16:29

I like Andy Burnham - he's got that northern no-nonsense thing and I do like a Mancunian accent - whereas Keir's accent is an awful, nasal whine.

Andy Burnham might be Mayor of Manchester but he is from Liverpool and definitely has a Liverpool/Scouse accent - not Mancunian.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 29/11/2023 10:00

ZeldaFighter · 29/11/2023 08:12

I'm a lifelong Labour voter and I'm warily optimistic. I personally like Keir Starmer although I accept he doesn't always come across well. I think he's a decent man, who wants to change things for the better....and has to win the election to do that.

I can't bring all the details to mind but I remember reading about why right wing parties are so stable (1 Tory party) and left wing parties (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens) are so split by infighting. Right wing parties are less ideological and more electorally practical - they do what needs to be done to retain power. Left wing parties are more focused on their ideology and politics so face more moral dilemmas and are more likely to renounce power in favour of principles. (Generally!)

So I hope the left wing voters can come together to vote Labour to try and salvage our economy, our NHS, our schools, our environment, our local government and local services etc etc etc

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/nick-clegg-did-not-cater-tories-brazen-ruthlessness

Nick Clegg: ‘I did not cater for the Tories' brazen ruthlessness’

The former deputy prime minister broke his pledge on tuition fees – but for five years, he was the brakes on a ‘cynical’ Conservative party. Was the personal and political cost worth it? Plus an exclusive extract from his revealing new book

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/nick-clegg-did-not-cater-tories-brazen-ruthlessness

Treaclesandwich · 29/11/2023 09:48

NoCloudsAllowed · 29/11/2023 09:46

Tories have also moved to permit foreign nationals to be paid less than British workers in skilled fields like computing, science, medicine etc. this was illegal under eu rules

So those professions are being undercut by immigrants. It's a race to the bottom. Brexit wasn't above giving British people privileges, it was about deregulating to make the obscenely rich even richer.

Truly, utterly, dismal and discriminatory. Unfair to British nationals and unfair to foreign nationals to get paid less for the same work. The government truly are the absolute pits.

NoCloudsAllowed · 29/11/2023 09:46

Papyrophile · 28/11/2023 20:56

I think the Tories will move quickly to impose a much higher income requirement threshold for a new employment visas.. from £26k to £45k, or (better) even higher. More than £70k would be my cut off if I were in politics; this would be my first move. Cheapskate employers would hate it as they would have to invest in upskilling.

Tories have also moved to permit foreign nationals to be paid less than British workers in skilled fields like computing, science, medicine etc. this was illegal under eu rules

So those professions are being undercut by immigrants. It's a race to the bottom. Brexit wasn't above giving British people privileges, it was about deregulating to make the obscenely rich even richer.

jasflowers · 29/11/2023 08:21

user1497207191 · 28/11/2023 15:04

@jasflowers

Opposition parties dont have access to the numbers.

There's an enormous amount of data freely available to the public, which the opposition are free to download, analyse etc as they wish.

It's simply not true that the opposition don't have access to the numbers. They have access to A LOT of the numbers, it's only really the confidential numbers that they can't get.

It's also convention that opposition ministers have access to senior civil servants, data, etc., in the run up to a general election - that facilitates sharing of some additional confidential information.

Well done for making my point better than me, as you say, opposition do not have access to all the data, until the run up to the GE, which we are not yet in.

Its also rather silly to expect ANY opposition party to come up with better alternatives to current Govt policy, what do you think the Govt would do with that?