To think a huge crypto bitcoin bloodbath is on the cards.

I do have some concern about how easily it allows criminal organisations to move assets about without being detected. I know there are ways with banks and through companies but this is as I understand it far quicker and easier than that.

It appears that North Korea like it though According to the article they've hacked about $1.7 billon and see it as as long term investment

I don't really understand it. It seems quite volatile and so far as I can tell has now inherent or tangible value so it's not for me

@Ratonastick that's a great blog. I totally agree with this dude. I also agree with him that Blockchain is massively over hyped. I'm a software developer and run a tech company and for years I've been asked if we use Blockchain or if we'll be transitioning to Blockchain. The answer is still no because I can't see any sensible reason for us to use it.

@onlychildhamster I think you're right.

Originally it was marketed as a medium of exchange with the supposed advantage of anonymity (which might be thought of as a bit odd given the permanent transaction record in the blockchain and given paper cash has anonymity too). Over time, people have realised it's an exceptionally unsatisfactory currency or medium of exchange hence it's now marketed as a digital asset though still massively clunky with an enormous electricity cost from the constant calculations necessary to validate transactions and maintain the blockchain. Short term speculators don't really care if there is any fundamental value provided there's a 'bigger idiot' willing to buy hence there is a lot of fanboys and extreme reactions to anyone suggesting the emperor has no clothes. Someone with money and influence can make money by buying then suggesting the product can be used for fashionable real-world payments then sell and suggesting the environmental consequences are too high. Long-term investors presumably think it will have some value given the theoretical maximum number of coins built into the concept (though I'm unsure who will bother spending processing electricity and processing power if there are no new coins to be mined as a reward in the end game). Some argue the fiat currencies issued by nation states with large deficits are unsustainable so this is a better alternative though PRC recently exerted the power of a nation state by banning mining and use in a large economy.

As you might suspect, I'm sceptical (and also sceptical about the long term value of NFTs) though recognise lucky people can get out before the crash in any bubble (Dr Wellcome made millions from the South Sea bubble) though most will lose their pants if it is a bubble.

Some coins like shiba inu are supposedly looking to build their own version of a meta verse, where the coins are used as currency.

Whether all that takes off, I haven’t a clue.

Argo Blockchain is one of the BTC miners moving to green mining. Elon Musk has hinted at powering mining using some of his crazy battery things.

I like others have a few quid invested/gambled in this area. Anyone who bets the farm is a fool.

@fromdownwest house prices are influenced by interest rates and mortgage criteria. For example, an average person's salary in London is £40k so an average couple earning a combined salary of £80k would be able to borrow 4.5 times combined income which makes up £360k. thats a 90% mortgage for my 2 bed flat which is worth 400k. The average first time buyer property in london is around £431k so not massively more than that and 25% of first time buyers get an 'advance inheritance' . Interest rates are also very low which attracts people with significant savings to put their money in property as an investment.

London property is massively inflated (11 times an average londoner's salary- which is why most people who buy in london are now couples), but at least you can kinda work out how people can afford it. With crypto, i can't work out whats the reason

[quote Hereward1332]@fromdownwest

er no, it doesn't describe the whole global economy. The property market is backed by ... property. There is no intrinsic value in a line of code beyond what someone else will pay for it. Property has some inherent value plus the cost of labour and parts to replace it. It also has a yield if you hold it.

Cryptos value is solely confidence.[/quote]
I mentioned that, Property is only worth rhe rebuild and Labour costs, however, it sells at a lot more due to the demand of a finite product.

Fine art is ony worth what someone is willing to pay for it. The base cost of a Picasso and a paiting on the same sized canvas from the same era with the same medium, is worth an awful lot less, even though they are the same things intrinsicly.

People see value in many things, and I can't see why people are not able to see value in a new style of digital currency without it being called a Ponzi scheme.

I agree the NFT's are a push, but again, if there is a demand, it has value, how long that will last is anyones guess.

[quote JanuaryBluehoo]@DGRossetti

Yes Id like to invest in the block chain side of the things. Have you seen any companies that cover this?[/quote]
That's rather the point ... you just use the blockchain. Same way you "use" money.

Yes, you can invest in money if you like - that's what interest and bonds really are. But we come then to the network of trust (or otherwise) needed to sustain that infrastructure. And that's all done centrally.

If you think certain crypto currencies/tokens have more going for them than others, then you might take a punt on them. But the whole market is generally full of scam artists (see upthread).

I did develop a proof of concept travel insurance dapp back in 2016 when I worked in strategy. The idea was you put a smart contract on the (Ethereum) blockchain for an insurance event, and if it occured, the contract automatically paid out.

If you want a pointer, the people most interested in blockchain after scammers and tech nerds were lawyers. I went to a few conferences and there were a lot there.

I also met some nice folk from the UK Land Registry. Who had an obvious interest in smart contracts.

@fromdownwest

er no, it doesn't describe the whole global economy. The property market is backed by ... property. There is no intrinsic value in a line of code beyond what someone else will pay for it. Property has some inherent value plus the cost of labour and parts to replace it. It also has a yield if you hold it.

Cryptos value is solely confidence.

Yanbu. It's a giant pyramid scheme.

I bought just before the crash and I’m holding for now see what happens I think it will work out but it may not

I have a bit of a professional interest in this and, in my view, Crypto is a Ponzi (some coins are exceptions). For most people it is basically just an unregulated investment product. It is going to pop at some point and the techbros will be long gone leaving the “apes” they lured in to take the losses.

This blog is interesting and I agree with a lot of it. The writer hasn’t exactly got clean hands as he is a software developer in an adjacent tech space, but a lot of his analysis is solid.

www.stephendiehl.com/blog/against-crypto.html

Having said that I do think the defi architecture that a lot of it is built on is going to change the world and asset management as we currently know it is going to die. Timing is interesting because quantum computing could overtake (I am as as much if a nerd as a PP DH) but between now and then it will grow like topsy.

But who is rewarding you with bitcoin when you get it right and what do they get out of it themselves?

Ok sorry if I wasn't clear. There isn't a person or organisation rewarding you with bitcoin. No one is in charge of bitcoin. The whole mining process and creation of new bitcoins is just part of the technology. It's just computers running code and communicating with each other.

I hope so. It’s MLM for men, with an idiotic carbon footprint.

If people bough houses for what they were 'worth;' then they would be 90% cheaper.

Same as Gold, all Gold is, is a coloured metal, that mankind has deemed valuable due to its appearance and applciations.

@DGRossetti

Yes Id like to invest in the block chain side of the things. Have you seen any companies that cover this?

Do you genuienly believe that every Dollar, Pound and Yen in circulation has the underlying asset in repository? Money in circulation is a promise to pay, so FIAT in itself is backed by nothing other than a goernments ability to repay their debt and associated interest.

Being bad for the environment - this is a misleading statement.Crypto mines are actually seeking out alternative cheaper methods of power, such as alternatives and heat energy recycling, they actively seek out alternative power sources, such as tidal and geo thermal. It also uses much less than even the global Gold mining in Gigajoules, so if one is attacking crypto, they should direct the same to global precious metal mining.

I appreciate the varying views on it, however, to dismiss it as a Ponzi schheme is naive. The Blockchain has many uses and is a really exciting are of exploration if you have time to read up on it.

If you don't understand it don't invest in it - How many people are invested in a Vanguard fund? How many of them understand the Sharpe Ratio of their Investments, the Dividend Yield of their stocks, the Alpha and Beta of their portfolio? I understand that an overview of understanding is required, but to only invest in what you fully understand is an un realisitic expecations.

I hold Crypto as part of my overall portfolio.
I see NFT's and sh*t coins as gambling, and stay well away.

I also see Crypto as forming a part of the global economy in then next decade, how much us up for debate, I foress 10% of all financial transactions being Crytpo based.

Two separate issues.

The block chain tech and style is excellent.

The crypto no

Does anyone else just fundamentally not understand crypto, and NFTs? I'm by no means uneducated but I cannot get my head around it.

Bitcoin is mined in a volcano in kazakhstan?? The more I hear about the more I think it is fictional!

@TrophyWinner it is apparently quite useful for well off afghanis as their economy has collapsed otherwise. It has limited utility in most circumstances.

Not all crypto currencies are mined, for a start. They can be issued and used as tokens to propagate the blockchain in the same way you pay banking fees.

My interest (having made a few hundred in bitcoin when I was doing strategy research) is much more in the blockchain and how it can be programmed to deliver smart contracts and other secure transactions across a distributed ledger.

The wide boys have started to move in here (you will see a lot of "Web 3.0" popping up for the gullible) but there is a paradigm shift in the wings.

However we are now straying from technology to politics. And that's probably above my pay grade.

It's entirely a pyramid scheme. It's less than a zero-sum game - one person's profits must come from another's loss, minus the cost of mining. There is no inherent value. It's all built on confidence - that a willing buyer can be found when you want to sell. Without that confidence, it will crash.