What is actually likely to happen in the event of a no-deal brexit?

[KitKat1985]

So, it's looking increasingly likely we may be heading to a no-deal Brexit. What are the realistic likely consequences of this? How worried should I be?

[bellinisurge]

Best case scenario is a serious interruption to the food distribution network.

[GoFiguire]

I don’t know. Have you tried Zoflora?

[bellinisurge]

FWIW, I don't think Parliament or even Theresa May would allow No Deal. I think she'd revoke A50 if it came to the last gasp and there was no option other than No Deal.
But I'm not counting on it.

[NigelsBird]

In the short term, I think there's very likely to be some considerable disruption to supply chains, therefore panic buying and empty shelves. I would hope that within a month the government would have put procedures in place, but what do I know? Prices for everything will go up a LOT due to much bigger tariffs on imports and short supply of home-produced items.
In the longer term, a grim picture - high prices, unemployment and a failing economy. I think it will be at least ten years of "austerity++" before we see any possible improvement. If things are bad for people on lower incomes now, life will be impossible.
Those peddling the lie that leaving on WTO trade terms is a good thing are so f*ing irresponsible, it makes my blood boil. Plus, stupid people who just suck it up without doing any research of their own.

[mrsglowglow]

I see it as looking very unlikely that there will be a no deal brexit.

Democracy no longer exists in our country and whether you voted leave or remain in this whole mess we should be more worried about this.

No deal would bring the uk down and take parts of the eu with it.

The open manipulation by all parties disgusts me.

A general election should be called but I wonder if this will happen? I also feel the establishment will ensure one way or another Jeremy Corbyn will never be pm. Shame as he would make a real change.

[lonelyplanetmum]

No politicians, economists or even journalists are now saying that Leaving will bring benefits, boost the economy and lead to great prosperity, investment, boom and growth.

The most common explanations of leaving without an agreement include the following consequences:

Long term no deal will trigger a deep recession with more damaging consequences for the UK economy than the 2008 financial crisis. Estimates vary but we are looking at losing around 9.3% of GDP.

Without a bilateral trade deal with the EU, Britain will follow World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

UK exports would face the same customs checks and tariffs as other third countries outside of the EU.

The overnight end of frictionless zero-tariff trade will increase the price of many goods and
• create chaos at the borders
•drive up food prices
•lead to a shortage of some essential goods.

Even research carried out by the Brexit department said without deals on customs and trade, parts of Britain would run out of food and some medicines within a fortnight.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned medical drug companies to expect six months of “significantly reduced access” to the main trade routes between Britain and Continental Europe .

Dominic Grieve warned that a no-deal Brexit would be “absolutely catastrophic” for the UK.
“We've got to be realistic about this,” he told Sky News. “We will be in a state of emergency.”

•In its report, Kent County Council also warned:
“Refuse could be left outside homes and food deliveries be disrupted as the county copes with 10,000 lorries clogging up its roads”

“Bodies may remain uncollected and children might miss exams due to gridlocked roads in the event of a no-deal Brexit”,

Amazon UK chief Doug Gurr predicting that Britain will descend into “civil unrest” within weeks if it leaves the EU with no trade deal in place.


Also see editorial in the Financial Times. “Leaving the EU without formal agreements would result in instant, harsh consequences.”

https://www.theweek.co.uk/fact-check/95547/fact-check-what-a-no-deal-brexit-really-means

[KitKat1985]

Doesn't sound very hopeful does it. I can't believe after 2 year of negotiating it's all going to come down to a panic now before the deadline, with a good chance now that no agreement will be reached.

[StealthPolarBear]

Surely if all the great minds are predicting chaos they need to be putting pressure on the reverse this mess.
The government should be doing what's best for the country. If every economic prediction includes severe recession then how can they justify going ahead.
I am seriously worried. I am so sick that uninformed and lie-based votes two years ago have plunged us into this. I can't believe there are people out there who still think this is beneficial.

[JustKeepSwimmingJustKeepSwimmi]

I wish the politicians were able to say, on a united front, "You know what folks, it just isnt going to work for the UK to leave the EU. We've looked into it. Spun it whichever way. We were wrong." And move onto more pressing issues running the country....

pipedream

[StealthPolarBear]

And why can't they? Because they don't want to go down in the history books as 'ignored the will of the people'. Although imo it would be 'put the good of the country first in very difficult circumstances'

[StoorieHoose]

I think Scottish Independence will be back on the agenda in the case of No Deal, followed by a referendum in NI about Irish reunification

[frumpety]

All the politicians who have spent the last 2 plus years tying themselves in knots, will point the finger of blame at 'The will of the people' . Listen carefully to all the proponents of leave being interviewed in the media, they are setting up the people as the scapegoat. Anything bad happens , not their fault , was the will of the people you see. They had to do X,Y,Z as the people demanded it as their democratic right.

[millyonth]

If we leave with no deal there will be a lot of noise from the big corporations and then we'll just go on trading with the EU and other countries as we do already. Then we will negotiate a Canada style deal with the EU but the EU will pretend it's a worse deal to save face.

When you sell a hat on ebay to an Australian they pay you and you post it to them. Selling abroad is not much different to that. I know because I do it. As long as you comply with the other country's hygiene and safety regs you are entitled to sell to them. The EU cannot boycott our goods and why would they? We buy more from them than they sell to us.

That's why the nuts and bolts factory owner on the BBC news last night said he was ready for No Deal. It's not the shit storm people on MN pretend it is.

[millyonth]

Amazon will be the biggest loser.

[millyonth]

I think that's why Clarkson keeps popping up.

[NotANotMan]

@millyonth did you just try to claim that negotiating international trade deals is like selling on eBay?

[millyonth]

I made a comparison between being a business that sells abroad and being an individual selling on ebay. You can sell to other countries without a deal. It's alarmist to suggest otherwise.

[millyonth]

If you have shares in Amazon you should fear a No Deal.

[NigelsBird]

I can't believe there are people out there who still think this is beneficial

Neither can I. But there are plenty of them. I was at Westminster yesterday and they were out in force: "WTO - it's the way to go" apparently.

[Somerville]

No, Millyonth, Northern Ireland will be the biggest loser. Pressure to have a hard border immediately, which will happen eventually. Limited access to EU electricity market (which UK government can only suggest mitigating with generators in barges). Huge problems for agricultural sector (so much farming is cross border at the moment.

[BellaGoth]

Millyonth: "We buy more from them than they sell to us."

[millyonth]

Somervill. I absolutely agree that there cannot be a hard border. No UK govt can allow that to happen. The EU will have to make an exception.

[millyonth]

We buy more from them than they buy from us. Sorry.

[Costacoffeeplease]

Have you ever bought anything from outside the EU, and had to pay customs tax before receiving it - multiply that by all the goods we buy, as a country - brilliant isn’t it?

[Ellie56]

I don't think Parliament will allow a no deal. Last night Yvette Cooper ( I think it was) was agitating about extending Article 50 in view of the rejection of the WA. From what John Bercow said, I understood that would come up for discussion today, along with everything else.