To wonder why MNers are so obsessed with Brexit now?(174 Posts)
I used to post on MN before the referendum and I saw very little discussion about Brexit in AIBU (although I think a lot of threads started in AIBU were moved to the EU Referendum topic).
In the EU Referendum topic traffic was fairly slow and there were just a few posters battling it out time and time again. A few posters on the leave side were, in my view, 99% likely to be paid trolls, who all disappeared immediately after the referendum.
Since the referendum the subject really seems to have picked up steam and there seem to be loads of people getting really worked up about how Brexit is a disaster and the country is going to the dogs.
AIBU to wonder where all these people were before, and why they weren’t all shouting from the rooftops when there was still a chance to change the result?
YA probably not being U - but it's a really tricky subject on here as on other online venues I've visited.
There's an awful lot of personal abuse and nastiness around it.
Probably because the promises made before the vote have been exposed as lies and the negative repercussions and consequences of the leave vote are only slowly starting to dawn on people.
Because it is becoming ever more apparent what a shit storm Brexit is going to be?
We have until October to reach an agreement, so far we have pissed away months and months and agreed hardly anything.
I have limited patience with that, changename. A lot of the Brexit lies were known to be lies beforehand. Like the figure on the bus, for example. Everyone on the remain side said it wasn’t accurate. (My biggest “WTF” about the Brexit bus is how the hell that is not an electoral offence.)
I can’t think of any negative consequence we are seeing now that wasn’t predicted with some reasonable degree of accuracy by “Project Fear”.
Possibly because it's the biggest (most yuge*) political activity that will effect the entire UK within the foreseeable future?
Agree with that, falsepriest, but why the hell didn’t people wake up to it before the vote?
Polls seem to suggest that if we held another referendum now, remain would win. Not because many people have changed their minds (no one likes to admit that they were wrong), or because vast numbers of leavers have popped their clogs or remainers have gained the right to vote, but because some of the 16 million or so lazy plonkers who couldn’t be arsed to vote might actually get out of bed this time.
Hardly a ringing endorsement for British democracy, is it?
It wasn't a big thing before because everyone expected remain to win. It has become a thing now as a lot of people think if they can make it seem as bad as possible it will be stopped. This used to be known as Project fear and the claims are a lot more outrageous than a big red bus saying lets give more money to the NHS.
Polls seem to suggest that if we held another referendum now, remain would win.
You mean like the OBR poll on the 8th of March: 44% remain, 49% leave.
Or the ComRes poll on the 2nd of March with 43% remain, 46% leave.
All the ones I’ve seen in the last year or so estimate a narrow victory for remain. The pool of people who would vote leave certainly isn’t getting any bigger.
Because calling the referendum was the most calamitously misjudged political decision of the 20th century maybe.
If by that you mean 21st century then yes, maybe.
Because no fucker understood what was at stake with the referendum. Most people thought they knew more about politics than they actually did. I think that they have been rudely awoken to the gaps in their knowledge.
This includes the bloody politicians themselves in a lot of cases.
There also wasn't a real driving force to get your arse out to campaign to remain. Apathy ruled.
I posted the below, before the referendum. There are a few things that I haven't been right on, but for the most part this post is aging well. I think it explains it fairly well, rather than looking back from where we stand now, retrospectively.
I think people are starting to think about what they value and not just the economic argument and think about the role of the EU within that, in a better way.
Also women on the whole are proving to be the 'Bregretters' not men, as they are more likely to be hit by consequences first. That makes MN a natural place for anti-Brexit talk, perhaps more than other places.
RedToothBrush Thu 16-Jun-16 13:41:39
I want to vote, and vote with conviction.
I think if you are Leave its probably more clear cut.
If you are Remain I think it tends to be an on-balance argument.
Which I think is making it hard for some people as they aren't in the later camp, but they are struggling with the on-balance argument with lots of confusing information. They are not 'YAY GO EU!!! WWWWOOOO!'. Its difficult to muster that excitement. In true I think its disingenuous to suggest you can be that excited about the EU.
The EU is flawed. Its a big monster. But there are big friendly monsters and big horrible monsters.
Leave is not an argument based on 'facts'. Its more of an 'outlook' based more on belief. Its stupid to try and look for them. There is no plan. There is no argument really apart from the propaganda slogan of 'Take Back Control' which in fairness is a very strong and positive one, especially when it sits next to the shitty weakness of the Remain camp's propaganda. What does it actually mean in reality though?
The truth: Not a lot. Its left deliberately open to interpretation, as that means people attach their own meaning to it - and therefore convictions and beliefs. Its to empower the person reading it. But there is little real substance behind it.
'To take back control', in life requires a detailed clear vision and strategy. Yet its nowhere to be seen, and Leave are quite happy to do this as it offers them the opportunity to promise the world (or glittering generalities as the technique is know). What how many times the phrase 'Take Back Control' is going to be repeated in the next week. Its an interesting game for Question Time Viewing!
Then there's the reality. Article 50, which is the mechanism to leave the EU, is heavily weighed against anyone leaving (its therefore not anti-UK). It puts us in a difficult position to make good on the promises of taking control, especially since there are French and German elections in the same period. Us leaving is likely to be met with hostility, even at cost to themselves, to try and prevent others leaving and getting similar 'concessions'. We will, instead of being in control, be the political football of the Germans and French. Who have no obligation to agree anything. If after two years there is no agreement, then we get thrown back into poor terms.
Then you have to consider the implications of politics domestically. I don't think there is any consensus on what the UK actually wants. Its very vague. Before we even get to the negotiation table we will have to settle this. I can't see there being much will to do this or much agreement.
Oh, and as for taking control. We'll get control of Sangatte alright. Only in Folkestone.
I might feel differently if there was a plan either within the Brexit camp or the Remain camp. Instead we have lots of competing and contradictory arguments.
If you are looking for facts over outlook, then I would go Remain. Lots of facts (of varying quality and bias and propaganda) but there are facts. Whether you choose to trust them - and their sources - is another matter. There is a definite split along these lines.
I think Remain are doing a shit campaign. They don't get it. They haven't been honest, and they have tried to scare people instead of just going with what the EU is.
On balance the EU offer us security and stability. Boring as hell but undervalued. If the EU did go tits up, then we would be sucked in regardless. Better to do it with others, in those circumstances. Its more likely to be controlled then. Movement of people is going to be a problem in or out due to a global population that is growing. We are better dealing with those problems on an international basis with people we are on good terms with rather than have just pissed off. Likewise, trying to get back tax from international corporation and tax havens - otherwise it will encourage an every man for himself mentality in the finance world which we have been chipping away at, albeit slowly. Then there's works and human rights. Deregulation will chip away at these. Its not a good thing. It seems to be fair game to talk about the EU in twenty or thirty years. I think its fair game to talk about workers and human rights in twenty or thirty years too.
Then there's this: The referendum looks set to be cut along age lines with the young wanting to stay in. If Brexit win, we loose a generation to political engagement as they feel they have not been listened to. The implications of this are wide ranging. It means few will take up the much needed call to get involved themselves locally. That means they don't get head. It means career politicians will dominate even more. I fear this perhaps more than anything.
Brexit is about trying to draw lines of division to me. Its about trying to other, and trying to use the word 'I' a lot. Rather than looking at what shared grievances we have and what we are all pissed off at, and using that to try and find solutions.
Even in terms of immigration, the them and us thing in terms of integration, requires both sides of the fence to reach out to each other. That's those who identify as White British making a positive effort as much as those coming over here and taking on British culture. Instead Brexit is driving a massive wedge in that. I'm scared some of the strength of negative feeling, so why would anyone from a none white British background feel better about it? It only adds more fuel to the fire.
Finally, there's Scotland and NI and the issues of their sovereignty and safety. I grew up fearing NI terrorism. I don't want to go back to that. I don't want to loose Scotland. I didn't want them to go last year. I still don't. I don't see how England is stronger without either NI and Scotland. I don't want to see friends who are Irish and NI and work across the border area have to make huge decisions.
I am PROUD to be British. I am starting the resent the fact that, I can not be British European and still be proud. Cultures do not disappear with the redrawing of lines on maps. Cultures flourish with trade and the bonds that brings. What makes someone proud to be Welsh? They have managed to maintain and indeed extend that in recent years, whilst still being part of the union. Ditto, Scotland and NI.
I have friends who are European and I see them as every bit as equal. The Little England nationalism is tiresome, and inaccurate anyway. I reject it.
Anyway, MY decision, is not anyone else's decision. But that's where I am. That's why I'm frustrated. I do have certain concerns but they are not going to get fixed in the way people think. Nor is it a decision from being scared.
It boils down to this to me. You can't just overthrown the government - domestic or the EU - with two fingers up, unless you have a credible alternative waiting in the wings with a credible alternative to fill the void.
Where is that? Where is that really?
I just hear a loud echoing silence to that question
The pool of people who would vote leave certainly isn’t getting any bigger.
And you know this how?
OP, I suspect that still many people in RL are not that bothered about it, they have plenty of other things to worry about. However, it's not surprising that interest is gathering, in 54 weeks time we'll be leaving, and no one really knows what that will look like.
The impact for some people in the UK (such as NI) could have far-reaching consequences, so not surprisingly there's a lot of conversation about it. For others, who may be planning to make big changes next year, such as moving, having a child, changing jobs etc. the uncertainty in going to be a worry.
I doubt very much if the shops will be empty in April 2019, whatever the outcome with the EU, government will make sure of that. Later on in the year, there could be problems - and that's the most annoying things absolutely no-one seems to have a clue!
Simply? Impact of it was not understood. Nobody let the public know of what it might have been known. Or nobody in Government spend time looking at those implications.
Now the public is being more aware of the fact that most of us are going to be hugely affected we are discussing it.
I was commenting about complexity of it and how little is known about it.
In my experience of people I know who voted leave they all did it because of immigration. They don't seem too worried about the lies in the campaign. They are just racist. Some of them really surprised me tbh, you think you know people.
Obviously not everyone who voted leave did it for that reason but I think alot did.
I voted remain. I am married to an EU national and its very worrying not knowing what is going to happen/where we will stand. No one seems to be able to shed any light.
One thing that really worries me is the role of Russia in this. People need to ask themselves why Putin wanted to drive a wedge in the Eu, he has succeeded.
The EU isn't perfect but it was born from the longest period of peace in Europe.
Divided we fall.
I thought it'd never happen to be honest, as it was so obivously a stupid idea, so didn't feel the need to hold forth about it!
Why campaign against something that will never happen?
I was there, trying. Under a different name. But as you say, 99% of the posts were from obviously paid Brexit pushers.
I was cross with MN for a while for not drawing peoples' attention to the fact that politicians pay people to post on forums. In this case though the leave campaign didn't bother (or to do much other campaigning in fairness).
It sent me a bit mad actually, I had to flounce for quite a while!
I meant the remain campaign didn't post on here. Sorry. Mates a nonsense of the whole post!
And you know this how?
It’s quite simple, really.
For the pool of people who would vote leave to get bigger, you would need people who didn’t vote leave last time to vote leave second time round.
Where do you expect these extra voters will come from? The people who felt strongly that leaving the EU was a good idea already voted leave last time. We know there are a few Bregretters (not many, but a few at least), and it is statistically likely that over half of the people who voted in the referendum and have since died would have been leave voters.
So just to keep the pool of leave voters the same size, you have to gain some extra leave votes from somewhere. To increase the pool of leave voters, you need to gain even more.
So where are these new leave voters going to come from? A few people who have turned 18 since the referendum might vote leave, but statistically we know that most of them would be for remain. What about people who have gained British citizenship since the referendum and would now have the right to vote? Unlikely, since many of these will be EU citizens who have had to take British citizenship to protect themselves. I can’t see many of them voting leave.
So that leaves people who voted remain or didn’t vote last time. In order for them to vote leave a second time round, that would require someone who didn’t think leaving the EU was a good idea in 2016 to have witnessed the clusterfuck we have experienced since then, and think, “You know what? This is actually going well! I don’t know what I was so afraid of. Silly me for listening to Project Fear!”
Not gonna happen, is it?
All the people daft enough to vote leave already did so first time round.
Mookatron, who did you post as before?
I would say it went further than MN not doing anything about the paid trolls promoting leave - I think they were actually complicit.
Honestly it didn't occur to me there was a realistic chance of people voting to commit this act of self harm in such large numbers they would win.
LoveInTokyo I thought -and think- so too! I don't want to post my old username as it still makes my heart beat faster to think about the slating I got for voicing those suspicions. Plus my own feeble attempts to stem the tide of those paid-for posts are embarrassing now.
The vote has really changed the way I feel about the UK and the part of it in which I grew up. Not in a good way.
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