Tl;dr - I'm quietly hopeful Starmer might be for turning. And the more he sees the strength of support nationally for women’s rights, the more likely this is. BUT you will be disappointed if you expect him to give away any clues, before he knows he's in a strong enough position in the party as well as the country
I suspect Starmer is starting to have an, "Oh shit, how do I get out of this one?" moment.
But I think that, like most politicians, Keir Starmer's number one priority is Keir Starmer. If he thinks that pressing ahead with self ID will cause his promising political career to crash and burn like Nicola Sturgeon's, he'll try to wriggle out of it. If he thinks that most people don't really care that much about trans issues and the people most likely to tank his career are blue haired activists and woke lobby groups, he'll go ahead with it.
Unfortunately, he won't make his position clear before the general election. Between now and then what we can expect from him are vague statements that either side can interpret as they see fit. He'll try and say just enough to convince both women and trans activists that he hears them and that he will fight their corner, even though he obviously can't do that because what women want and what trans activists want are in direct conflict.
This "reforming the GRA is not a top priority" statement is a classic example. If Labour get into power and Starmer decides that pushing ahead with self ID will see him Sturgeoned, he'll just keep saying, "We'll get to it, but only once we've ensured that everyone's rights are fairly balanced so we can bring the British people on board with this." And it will get kicked into the long grass until either the idea itself is as dead as the proverbial dodo, or he's no longer in power and whatever happens is not his problem. On the other hand, if Labour get into power and Starmer decides he's more afraid of the trans activists than he is of women, or if he's in coalition with the Lib Dems and reforming the GRA is a condition of their support, he'll say, "We never said we wouldn't do it. In fact, we said we would do it, just that it wouldn't be our first priority."
That's why I cannot even contemplate voting Labour.
Remember what happened in 2017? All those remainers lent their votes to Jeremy Corbyn to try and get the Tories out and Brexit watered down, or even a second referendum. And then all we heard for the next two years was that 80% of voters, including everyone who had voted for Labour, had voted to "get Brexit done".
Make no mistake, if you vote Labour and they go ahead with self ID, you will be told, in response to any protests, "But we made it clear that we would reform the GRA. You voted for this."