your best guesses for weather mid/ end September

[3duracellbunnies]

Hoping for outdoor party for ds, will it be an Indian summer?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

specific thread here

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Will start a new thread specifically for the weekend.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Even radio 4 picked up on the difficulties of Sundays forecast this morning.

[3duracellbunnies]

And back to downpours again, changes all the time even on the same website. Even the temp varies widely, fortunately my friends are fairly flexible!

[Labradorlover]

Ohbuggerandarse, I usually find Netweather to be better than Met Office for Embra....... No rain on Sun till the afternoon, but have you looked at the temp....High of 9C and an East wind.

[3duracellbunnies]

Just spent the whole morning tidying, only to check the forecast and it is now sunny and only 15 percent chance of rain! Just as I had decided that maybe a party at home wouldn't be so bad after all!

[3duracellbunnies]

Ours is only 4 families so decided to go up to the wire on this one as weather seems to keep changing. Have their phone numbers so will ring them sat pm if need be. Meanwhile the house is looking just a tiny bit tidier which is no bad thing!

[OhBuggerandArse]

I've found some sun in the Edinburgh forecast now, just when I'd resigned myself to indoors - is it tempting fate to postpone the decision a bit longer?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Met office are going for a dry start for you, rain by mid afternoon.

[3duracellbunnies]

Oh well, at least the house will look tidier anyway. In some ways the park will be lovely with lots of space to run around, but we will have to get everything over there and it's about a 5min walk in so that might be hassle!

Will watch and wait!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I honestly don't know when we'll have a better idea I'm afraid, hopefully the models will start converging over the next couple of days.

[3duracellbunnies]

Oh that sounds er unpredictable! Will keep cleaning and watching. How much warning do you think we will get of the end of a hurricane?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's a really complicated set up with ex hurricane nadine potentially interactive with troughs across the Atlantic. A deepish low may or may not form and if it does it may be very wet and very windy. The models are really split at the moment with some resulting in nothing and some resulting in a proper autumn storm. I'm keeping a close eye on it.

[3duracellbunnies]

Three websites in SE, one has no rain on Sunday, one has 60 percent chance, another has 80 percent chance. Am part way through tidying house but will need to start on cake soon. Have a feeling we may go down to the wire, as Sun seems to be the rain day, so I guess it could still shift to sat or mon (prays to weather gods)!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You'll need to clean the house I think. Looking wet.

[OhBuggerandArse]

Any advance on our rainy Sunday in Edinburgh yet? I think I'm going to have to clean up the house...

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Finding that a very slow website! It def is not definitive, partly because it will be based on just one model but also, it's a long way off still to be forecasting with any accuracy. So fret not yet!

[OhBuggerandArse]

Oh dear, not looking good here. Is this definitive, do you think?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Will try and come back tomorrow night but I'd generally say at around 5 days you have a reasonable idea. Problem is at this time of year that ex-hurricanes can be a nuisance without that much warning.

[3duracellbunnies]

Just come back to this thread. We are in SE, invites are out now for 23rd. How much notice will I have to clean the house? At what point would you say that the forecast is fairly reliable, at the moment it seems to be fairly dry on some forecasts but maybe rain the week after. Bites nails and scans forecast when should just get on and clean anyway

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Mostly western and northern Scotland, with some showers for a time perhaps in centralAl areas. Edinburgh being affected for a bit.

[OhBuggerandArse]

Argh. Which parts of Scotland?

(You do realise if it rains I will have to clean up the house so they can have the party indoors? It's vital to avoid this disastrous eventuality if at all possible!)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Looking good still away from parts of Scotland where it may be a bit damp.

[OhBuggerandArse]

Ooh, thank you! Fingers crossed...

[OhYouGreatGreatBritain]

You know something, at the moment that Sunday is looking pretty good on the gfs charts - with high pressure building over the UK :) of course that outlook may change over the coming days, but for the time being......