Weather for the coming weekend 22nd-23rd

(55 Posts)

Very briefly this morning with more this evening.

There is large uncertainty over this weekends weather. Parts of Ex-hurricane Nadine start to influence our weather, but the models are really struggling with what is a complex situation. If as it seems may happen, a deep low develops and moves up from our sw coasts, then parts could be in for extremely wet and very windy conditions especially on Sunday. The added sting to this sorry picture is that gfs then has the low sitting over the SW for days.

Look out for met office early warnings either today or tomorrow I think for Sunday.

More info and perhaps detail later...

Info about the west coast of scotland would be good (Argyll & Bute area). It's a Glasgow holiday tomorrow and Monday, so loads of people are going away for the last public holiday weekend of the year.

smile useful to know! Will take a proper look after work.

3duracellbunnies Thu 20-Sep-12 09:36:14

Prepares to batten down the hatches and have party at home sad

alcibiades Thu 20-Sep-12 10:30:05

Alex Deakin explains the uncertainty here:

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

warnings from met office

note that at the moment they are across the south and then up the east coast Monday.

Looking at the different models, there is no way I am going to attempt a forecast for Sunday/Monday. Too much variation and I could easily be wildly out. For the moment I would stick to the Met office, but be aware that if the low does develop as it might then possibly we could be looking at 80mm+ rain in parts over the 2-3 days.

not a bad summary by Alex Deakin, I do like a proper forecast!

sad my detailedish look at the charts vanished.

Gfs shows the new low going north to affect much of the uk with lots of rain and wind. UKMO keeps the low going through the channel so really only southern and eastern parts are affected. ECMWF is similar to gfs. The fax charts ( produced by the met office with lots of human input) don't appear to show the new low form at all.

If UKMO is correct then It looks set to go much colder next week I think. If gfs is correct then it's going to be a very wet and blowy week for many.

Tres tricky.

Models are all offering different solutions this morning!!!

I'm beginning to suspect we wont know until it actually happens. Will be very interesting to see which one had the closest solution.

OhBuggerandArse Fri 21-Sep-12 16:07:35

Forecast good for Edinburgh now as far as I can see - any thoughts on when we can start believing it?

I think that on Sunday you should probably be ok (but do have a back up plan) there is massive uncertainty later in the day, but most of the uncertainty is connected to what is going to happen south of you and the effect of that will take time to reach your area iyswim.

3duracellbunnies Fri 21-Sep-12 18:12:29

We still look decidedly uncertain, it looks at the moment on the sites I have seen that the SE is ok or just light rain until mid/late afternoon, not sure whether to risk it. At least the house is looking a bit tidier anyway!

Much more dodgy 3duracell, though the rain does seem to have been postphoned til later as you say at the moment.

If the UKMO model is correct then Monday looks to be on the rather windy side in the south. If the trend continues tomorrow then I think warnings may go up to amber.

Ok, having a really good look at the models now smile

Gfs shows the rain reaching the south in the morning. Lots of rain throughout the day in this area. Rain reaching Scotland by late evening. Rain continues right through Monday and indeed apart from a change to slightly more showery weather (and a through dry slots) general it's quite a grim week ahead for the UK.

UKMO shows a very similar picture now. ECMWF doesn't seem to deepen the low quite so far and it takes a bit of an odd track up to the NW of Scotland.

Wind wise although it could be quite windy tomorrow, it's more of a concern on Monday and this needs quite careful watching (IMO)

So to summarise, a period of very wet and rather windy weather is on the cards.By the end of Monday/Tuesday there will be some high rainfall totals and with that the risk of flooding. Although the winds don't look too bad (general autumn gales) I think there is scope for some stronger stuff and bear in mind that the trees are still in full leaf (at least they are down south) so they will be more vulnerable.

Winds at the moment look to be strongest in southern coastal regions on Monday afternoon according to met office but GFS also shows a tight squeeze in the isobars over Scotland on Monday evening.

RubberNeckerNicker Sat 22-Sep-12 10:23:55

Oh this isn't looking great OYBBK, you have to plead with the weather gods (in fact aren't you one yourself?) to clear everything up by next weekend.

It has to not rain on the 30th, I don't care how cold it is just no rain - please. I can't open a park in the rain wink

Ooooo, will just check for the 30th.......

According to GFS it looks ok smile high pressure builds at the end of the week. Pleasant temps and dry is forecast at the moment. ECMWF is showing a similar trend, so fingers crossed!

RubberNeckerNicker Sat 22-Sep-12 10:39:13

Yaaay you truely are a weather God! (and I'm going to hold you to it) grin

Though I think you should come to the park just to make sure grin

grin

And ta-da amber warnings (though not ta-da in the happy sense]] have been posted for the sw for heavy rain. Also much more of the uk is under yellows. Warnings are out for Tuesday too.

Very little change on the latest GFS model, so no change to my thoughts.

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