There is large uncertainty over this weekends weather. Parts of Ex-hurricane Nadine start to influence our weather, but the models are really struggling with what is a complex situation. If as it seems may happen, a deep low develops and moves up from our sw coasts, then parts could be in for extremely wet and very windy conditions especially on Sunday. The added sting to this sorry picture is that gfs then has the low sitting over the SW for days.
Look out for met office early warnings either today or tomorrow I think for Sunday.
Looking at the different models, there is no way I am going to attempt a forecast for Sunday/Monday. Too much variation and I could easily be wildly out. For the moment I would stick to the Met office, but be aware that if the low does develop as it might then possibly we could be looking at 80mm+ rain in parts over the 2-3 days.
Gfs shows the new low going north to affect much of the uk with lots of rain and wind. UKMO keeps the low going through the channel so really only southern and eastern parts are affected. ECMWF is similar to gfs. The fax charts ( produced by the met office with lots of human input) don't appear to show the new low form at all.
If UKMO is correct then It looks set to go much colder next week I think. If gfs is correct then it's going to be a very wet and blowy week for many.
I think that on Sunday you should probably be ok (but do have a back up plan) there is massive uncertainty later in the day, but most of the uncertainty is connected to what is going to happen south of you and the effect of that will take time to reach your area iyswim.
We still look decidedly uncertain, it looks at the moment on the sites I have seen that the SE is ok or just light rain until mid/late afternoon, not sure whether to risk it. At least the house is looking a bit tidier anyway!
Gfs shows the rain reaching the south in the morning. Lots of rain throughout the day in this area. Rain reaching Scotland by late evening. Rain continues right through Monday and indeed apart from a change to slightly more showery weather (and a through dry slots) general it's quite a grim week ahead for the UK.
UKMO shows a very similar picture now. ECMWF doesn't seem to deepen the low quite so far and it takes a bit of an odd track up to the NW of Scotland.
Wind wise although it could be quite windy tomorrow, it's more of a concern on Monday and this needs quite careful watching (IMO)
So to summarise, a period of very wet and rather windy weather is on the cards.By the end of Monday/Tuesday there will be some high rainfall totals and with that the risk of flooding. Although the winds don't look too bad (general autumn gales) I think there is scope for some stronger stuff and bear in mind that the trees are still in full leaf (at least they are down south) so they will be more vulnerable.