Research: September-borns do better at GCSE?

[stubiff]

Following on from my offer here

TeenTimesTwo asked

Do children born in September perform better at GCSE? Does the most recent evidence still suggest it?

Caveats/Disclaimers:
We are talking averagely, not every child born in September.
The graph is from FFT (see below).
There may be other reports/data you want to look at.
If you know of any other relevant reports then please shout.
Don't shoot the messenger!


Data Source IFS
"...large differences in educational attainment between children born at the start and end of the academic year in England."
"differences are largest soon after children start school and decrease as they get older."
"relative to children born in September, children born in August are 6.4% less likely to achieve five GCSEs or equivalents at grades A*–C."
"and around 2% less likely to go to university at age 18 or 19"
"and around 2.3% less likely to attend a high-status Russell Group institution if they do"
"even a one-month difference in age has an effect"
"those born in January are 2.8% less likely to achieve five A*–C grades in GCSE"
"those born in August are 5.4% more likely to be labelled as having mild special educational needs at age 11"

Data Source FFT
Data Source FFT Education Datalab
"August-born pupils close the gap as they get older but remain behind September-born peers by the end of KS4."
"in terms of raw attainment (Attainment 8), they (Aug-born) remain 0.3 grades per subject behind (Sep-born)"

Data Source Durham University
"Probably the simplest solution in the short term is to routinely age-standardise all assessment results."
"no valid reason why the younger children in each year group should have a worse chance in education because of a bureaucratically convenient decision outside their control."

[Helix1244]

I think size/skill is a huge issue.
DS playing rugbytots 4yo vs an almost 5yo. The 5yo is only slightly taller (ds is pretty tall), but between behaviour, kicking, running, listening it's overall a big difference. Then add in DS younger than average behaviour.
Another Jun child is good at kicking, passing etc is still smaller and listens less. So despite being probably good for age is still identifiably younger than the other child. Other children have dropped out due to not liking it but they were all worse/small etc.
Ideally everything would be max of 6m age difference.

I dont think 22% passing is bad. It means 1/5 would have passed if they had either done an extra year/dropped back/been a year more mature. And it's not like all will ever be capable of passing. As it's set so some fail.
We need to focus on the bullying/worry about it that puts everyone off delaying to CSA or dropping back a year.
But also 16 is too late to undo years of being behind and lost confidence. They would likely be stuck in a resit group so not exactly top set.
As well say doing not as well as you could have affects alevel choices. What you imagine you are good at. So getting Bs instead of As. And fundamentals of maths and English.
I would say my level of English wasn't great (we werent set though) and that affected choosing non-essay A-levels, it affected essay writing at degree level. Not necessarily age related but it has had an impact.

I suspect the biggest difference is to the average student, average IQ as they get stuck in lower sets.
Some friends at school suddenly did better around 13/14 and moved up as they put the effort in. However they went from set 2 of 2 to 2 of 3. Or in one subject up to 1/3. Possibly that subject less background knowledge was needed.

[Fifthtimelucky]

My daughters' secondary school was certainly aware pupils' age. End of year written reports recorded their exam mark, the average exam mark for the year group, their age and the average age.

My children don't conform to the stereotypes. The one with the summer birthday (2nd half of July), was always a high achiever academically, and went to Oxford. The one with the autumn birthday is dyslexic. She was comfortable at primary but usually at the bottom of the class at secondary (very selective independent). I was very relieved that she was one of the oldest.

They didn't conform physically either. The one with the summer birthday was one of the taller girls in her year group, whereas the autumn one was tiny until the age of 15 when she just shot up, overtaking most of her friends.

[Witchlight]

I think children are a bit like puppies - they establish the position in the pack they are comfortable with. It doesn’t mean they can’t move up the pack structure, but statistically they don’t.

So if they establish a position at the top, which would be easier if they are 20% older, they work towards keeping there. Individual children will obviously buck this trend - but it is a well known phenomenon. In countries where the school year runs Jan-Dec January born children do better in examinations. It would be interesting to allocate schools by birthdate in urban areas where there are a number of schools in a geographical area. One school takes Sep-Dec, one Jan-Feb etc and see if this nullified the difference at 11. Pita for parents though 🙂

[NC2605]

Such an interesting thread. I teach and where we are in the country we have children who are actually still 3 starting reception because they have the latest August birthdays and we go back at the end of August.

[BareBelliedSneetch]

The emotional and social side of it is often ignored for the academics.

So many stories of “I know an august born who got to Cambridge” or “my August born got all 9s/A*s”

My August born boy is flying academically, but the social and emotional side of it is a massive problem. And I can’t see it getting better any time soon. We debated long and hard over deferring him a year. I’m still not sure we made the right decision not to do it. His school were totally on side and happy for us to it, but left the decision to us. They’ve since said they think we made the right choice (looking at the academic side) but he really struggles with friends, and resilience and all the rest of the stuff that isn’t academic.

[Helix1244]

I made the wrong choice for my 7yo as i thought academics would be enough. They are very hyper though and at 4yo couldnt sit for a story in a group. Now very defiant. Literally no close friends in year group.

I would defer any others as i dont see why some families should end up with the crap (and certainly not twice). It is still considerably a worse position than bring sept as
Bullying
They could be moved up especially if moving area or school change HT etc.
Sports will still be Sept so competitively they would have to play up even if not at school.

[SlowMoFuckingToes]

@FlumePlume I don't think it's something they'd ever publish as they publish so little about their selection process. When we were touring several selective independent schools they all made a point that they took "some summer borne". A few were willing to give numbers. One claimed no less than 30% from March onward. One claimed 25%. You only have to look at the birthday boards in any selective Indy reception room to notice most of the class is born before January. My son was the youngest in his class. He's born in Feb!

[tulippa]

I'm wondering, as a parent of an autumnal DD, if other DP's of similar DC would have liked the opportunity for their DC to have been able to start their education an academic year earlier?

Absolutely not. DS is very early September born. I think he would have coped academically if he went into the year above but I'm so glad he's had the chance to thrive instead. Although he's tall, he was slow with motor skills so would have really struggled with sports - as it is he's about average for his year.

[LoveGrowsWhere]

DS is end of Aug born. In KS1 it was extremely obvious. By end of KS2 he'd caught up academically but not in confidence.

DS in yr10 brought home a sheet showing the gcse grades achieved last year by children with a similar MIDYIS score at age 11 (which was adjusted for DOB). It is just for loose aspirational guidance. What struck me was that for almost all subjects the results were heavily distributed but evenly across 3 grades. Not always the same three grades. I would love to know if / how DOB impacts that distribution. eg. If 30% scored a 5, 30% scored a 6, 30% scored a 7 & 10% scored 1-4 & 8-9, are the 7s more likely to be autumn born?

[Arewedone]

@tulippa we had same experience with Dd. Early September born was already reading so went into the year ahead. Academically was no problem for her as she had the advantage of early literacy however poor small motor skills and being tall for her age she had poor coordination & missed out on sports. Upon returning to UK and repeating Y7 as the oldest in her year we have seen the advantage.

[catndogslife]

I think the data could be skewed by the fact that so many more dcs are born in September /October than in some other months.
See www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/howpopularisyourbirthday/2015-12-18
However it very difficult for parents to plan effectively. Know a few who were planning dcs with an early September birthday who were born a few days early and ended up being born in August instead. On the other hand know a few families who chose to have dcs in august because it would be less child-care if dcs went to school just after their 4th birthday.
My dd is Autumn born but an age-corrected score for being born then would be really annoying as she was 3 months premature so should have been born in the Spring term iyswim.

[SansaSnark]

I do think that the labeling of children as "bright" or "more able" or the reverse can have a long term impact on how children see themselves, and can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. There is also some research to suggest that teachers treat classes differently when they are told they are more/less able- and the students respond to this. So if a child goes through primary school labeled as being "less able", then that could have all sorts of impacts on them.

I agree that for individual children, there are a huge range of factors that will affect their performance, but it is interesting to see that birth month still appears to have an impact even in Year 11.

When I first started school, our reception classes were actually organised by age- so Autumn term births in one class, Spring term births in another, and Summer term births in another class. We stayed in these classes for reception and Y1, and were mixed around in Y2 (and then mixed around again going into Y3 as it was a separate junior school). I can see how narrowing the ages within each class could be beneficial, but it could also cause some problems with low vs high expectations! Also, obviously, this is only possible in a larger primary school!

[Helix1244]

Interesting to think about prem and adjusting scores. Wonder if with grammar you can say dc is prem and get extra adjustment.

It is not surprising independents take more winter due to the tests which for summer ones would around 3.5yo vs 4.4yo

[catndogslife]

I am not in a grammar area so no idea about how this can be affected by prematurity. What is clear is that it's dcs with very low birth-weights that are affected i.e. those born with weights under 1kg (some studies suggest under 1.5 kg) rather than all premature dcs. However being premature and having an August birthday may be more significant.
It also looks as if other traumas in early childhood also affect GCSEs as well. This is the most recent article I can find www.telegraph.co.uk/education/secondaryeducation/11051173/How-much-do-our-genes-dictate-our-GCSE-results.html

[tulippa]

@Arewedone I think it just goes to show that academic readiness is not the only thing to consider about starting school. Physical and emotional readiness need to be taken into account where possible as well. DS was really tired for the whole of reception - it would have been horrendous if he'd had to start a year earlier. His (older by six weeks) July born cousins are due to start secondary school next month - they seem so young and I'm so glad DS has another year to go.

[OutwiththeOutCrowd]

This is from a few years ago but quite interesting. Month of birth affects chance of getting into Oxbridge.

Just an anecdote - my DS goes to a selective school and he tells me that birthdays are skewed towards the earlier months of the academic year.

The situation is very much as Malcolm Gladwell reported in the sporting domain.

[YesThisIsMe]

I have a child at an ultra selective private secondary which does not adjust for birth date in its entrance tests. According to the PTA list which includes birthdays, 65 out of 100 children in the year were born September - February.

[SlowMoFuckingToes]

Apparently autumn babies are twice as likely to be elected to parliament. There was an article I read ages ago about them being far more likely to be CEOs. At the time of the article I don't think there was a Fortune 500 ceo born past April. It's a HUGE difference.

www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2018/11/01/autumn-winter-babies-far-likely-elected-parliament/amp/

[ProggyMat]

i I think it just goes to show that academic readiness is not the only thing to consider about starting school. Physical and emotional readiness need to be taken into account where possible as well
Absolutely!
That said, Noble commented that her son is 'top of his class academically and to make him wait out a year would have been a waste of his time'
My DD was taught in a small primary with mixed year classes. In Yr1, 3 and 5 she was on 'top table' with those in the academic year above.
Was she 'academically, physically and emotionally ready to leave for secondary at, for her, the end of year 5 with her 'peers'? Most definetly yes but her waiting out a year was year 6.
She will sit her GCSE's next year.

[inmyfeelings]

I'm a September born child and got 10A* in the 2000 and it's only because I spent around 10 hours a day revising which I enjoyed

[Piggywaspushed]

Bit to play devil's advocate is he top of his class academically, or is he simply the oldest?? Who knows.

[Benjispruce]

My September born was a 10 A* student.Her father , also a September baby, got 3 Cs.

[Benjispruce]

Purely anecdotal: I work in primary education. We have 3 prem children (3 months and they are much behind their peers. We weren’t aware they were prem until investigations into their difficulties ability caused their parents to divulge that information.

[ProggyMat]

piggy I read it as noblegiraffe's DS is August born and did not defer a year

[Piggywaspushed]

Oh yeah. duh.