Predicted GCSE Results

[SanityClause]

DD1 is in year 10, and has just been given her predicted results - A* in every subject. These are, apparently, based on the CAT scores from year 7.

She is having a major wobble, as that's obviously a pretty tall order, even for a bright child.

She is going in today to ask her maths teacher if her maths prediction can be reduced to an A.

I get that the school want her to "aim high", in each subject, but do they not look at the whole picture? Surely this is just setting her up to fail?

I am sure others have had this. How did you and your DC handle it?

(Please don't accuse me of stealth boasting. This is a very real issue for us.)

[NoComet]

Some 'light reading'
Fischer Family web site

scroll down for what FFTd and it's friends mean

Basically Ofsted expect our school (and looking at TES) most others to aspire to FFTd targets.

ie. All schools should be in the top 25% of schools with similar demographics to them.

How the Fuck all schools are surprised to be way better than average I have no idea.

Giving pupils targets based on this lunacy is simply wrong!

[NoComet]

Its and supposed - sorry

Sorry A grades don't stop me being dyslexic, nor is DD1 being more severely dyslexic factored in to her predictor end grades.

If she gets her B for English, her teacher will deserve a pay rise. Of course she won't because on her CATs B is what she should get easily.

[lljkk]

How does FFT get their data about child's family profile (socio-economic & educational levels)? Is it by postcode area or obtained by asking the parents to give info?

this thread implies it's all done on deprivation factors (IMD data).

[daphnedill]

There is actually a very good correlation between CATs scores and GCSE outcomes, as the indicative grades I've shown are based on actual results. I also did research on the outcomes of my own pupils, which showed that CATs scores are a better indicator than FFT or SATs results.

[Boltonlass1972]

Target grades are a nonsense. Computer generated and mostly based on very inaccurate sats from y6. They do not account for the child as an individual. I have been a secondary teacher (Science) for 18 years. Target grades didn't exist when I started teaching. We got to know the kids and after a few months had a good idea of what we thought they were capable of. We predicted accurately and the kids were pleased if they met or prediction.
Now it's a farce. I teach gcse to y9 and when I gave my top set their target grades, I preceded it with what I felt about target grades and how I almost wanted them to ignore them. They are often impossibly high for some kids. The top set (out of 9 sets) had target grades from B up to A star, but my bottom set 9 out of 9 had target grades of between D and A. I have not bothered crushing the hopes of these lovely kids by telling them what these impossible goals are. They are set up by the system to feel a failure. Quite honestly those kids will be lucky to get a D at best. But that's just my experiences prediction: these ridiculous computer given targets are what are printed on reports. They are the grades we as teachers are also measured against and if kids don't meet them, our pay can now potentially drop (thank you Mr Gove for yet another stupid idea)
As a parent I also say the same to my own kids to try and prevent anxiety. The only possible use of them is if you have a child who is a lazy arse who cannot be bothered, is significantly underachieving and yet is capable of so much more. But any teacher worth their salt will recognize this early on and give the necessary kick up the pants where necessary.

[SanityClause]

Thank you to all who have posted.

I have discussed a lot of the points with DD, and she feels much calmer about it now.

I do still think it's wrong to give a target of A for everything, as I can only see that it is setting them up to fail. She probably won't get A for everything. She is a bright and conscientious girl, and will probably get a mixture of A*s, As and maybe a B or two.

And I will be delighted with that. But, if she does, she won't have reached all her "targets".

[wordfactory]

sanity if she reaches the grades you say, then worry not about her 'targets'.

She will be jumping into her A levels then, and it will all be a bit 'last year's news'.

I wish her every luck .

[NoComet]

I'm glad she's feeling calmer.

I think, with the best will in the world, we are stuck with aspirational and therefore, for many DCs, ridiculous targets.

Why, because otherwise it's impossible to prove schools don't cheat.

One persons mitigating circumstance, is another persons excuse.

Over the years schools have expected too little of some DCs to cover up poor teaching and a lack of SN and pastoral support.

Unfortunately now Ofsted have taken it too far the other way and are expecting miracles.

[HmmAnOxfordComma]

Level 8 sounds high (it is!) but in maths if you can just think of as topics grouped together, I think it sounds less stressful.

Ds's school don't give out levels and targets in a formal way (independent school) but he has worked through all of level 6 and most of level 7 maths topics in yr 7 and now in year 8 they are doing mostly level 8 and some level 7 topics. (He finished primary on level 5a - and I understand from some of the other 'top set' parents that no other dcs were level 6).

If she understands that she will be taught x, y and z topics by the end of year 8 (ie the expectation is on the teacher, not her as such), it might help.

[HmmAnOxfordComma]

Whoops, that was for lljkk; I committed the cardinal sin of not reading the last page.

[NoComet]

Don't worry
Maths is an anomaly, like music, it is possibly to be good at it without the life experiences, general knowledge and intellectual maturity you need for history, RE or English.

Because everyone needs a maths qualification (most of us don't need grade 8 music) the GCSE has to be set at a level that produces comparable numbers of A*, As etc as English and science.

However, the best mathematicians get to this standard a year early, hence maths targets looking high and many top sets doing maths a year early.

Incidentally many mathematicians are good musicians or their family members are.

[KatyPutTheCuttleOn]

My DD has similar targets, however she has decided that they are stuff and nonsense because they are based on things like the demographics of where we live, of her social background and so on. When she was on free school meals she was predicted to get C/D, she came off free school meals and suddenly was predicted A*/A/B. It's a load of codswallop and not worth considering.

[allonsymums]

This happened to my daughter they predicted her all a stars but science she was struggling slightly with biology she asked for her grade to be out down to a A but she is so frustrated that one of three science might put her grade down. I know parents think year 9's predicted a stars is rubbish but I think my daughter deserves it she does consistently try hard and we got her a science,English,maths and a German tutor so maybe getting a her a maths tutor will help her?

[Hakluyt]

Allons- this is a very old thread- you might want to start your own?