Predicted GCSE Results

[SanityClause]

DD1 is in year 10, and has just been given her predicted results - A* in every subject. These are, apparently, based on the CAT scores from year 7.

She is having a major wobble, as that's obviously a pretty tall order, even for a bright child.

She is going in today to ask her maths teacher if her maths prediction can be reduced to an A.

I get that the school want her to "aim high", in each subject, but do they not look at the whole picture? Surely this is just setting her up to fail?

I am sure others have had this. How did you and your DC handle it?

(Please don't accuse me of stealth boasting. This is a very real issue for us.)

[SanityClause]

If no one believes them, why are the schools giving out these targets to students?

They are effectively saying, "If you work really hard, and all goes to plan, you could get an A*!" Well, duh!

[stillenacht]

SantyClause

Gawd knows but due to PRP our pay depends on kids getting those grades

No pay rise for me this year despite hours and hours and hours of unpaid work for clubs, revision sessions, tours etc

[TallulahMcFey]

My daughter (now at uni) had the same targets. She ended up getting 7as 1a and 3bs. I think these sort of results are more likely, although clearly some do end up with a whole string of as. The unis tend to group A's and as in the same way (e.g. might want 7 a/as for most competitive courses at top unis) and I tend to think of them in the same way. I just looked as my daughter's targets as A's and thought that if it all went well on the day then she might get an a. It seems like your daughter will no doubt do well anyway and any combination of a's a and b are really good. If I was her I would just aim for combinations of the top grades, ignore the targets and think that she gets what she gets.

[daphnedill]

A pupil achieving all A*s will probably have a CAT score around 125+. Click on the Excel Workbook in this link for the indicators for individual subjects:www.gl-assessment.co.uk/products/cat-cognitive-abilities-test/performance-indicators
The indicative GCSE grades are slightly different for some subjects. For example, a pupil with a CAT score of 125 has a 45% chance of achieving a grade A and 31% chance of achieving an A in English. However, the same pupil has a 39% chance of achieving an A and 32% chance of an A in German.

[daphnedill]

wordfactory,
Unless your DS is at a selective school, it is highly unlikely that any pupils with CAT scores below 100 (ie. 50% of pupils in a genuine comprehensive) will achieve any As, however hard they work. They haven't in the past and it would take a miraculous jump in overall attainment for such pupils to achieve As.

[wordfactory]

daphed it is a super selective so on raw ability every pupil should be straight A*. But you know how it is? You gotta be realistic!

[daphnedill]

In that case they do ALL have the potential to achieve all A*s, provided the selection criteria were correct in the first place. Quite frankly, if they don't all achieve As at least, something hasn't been quite right.

[roisin]

ds1 had all A targets, was very stressed about it, especially in yr10 as he felt he had to be "perfect" in every assessment. Also, through school he had always aimed for "above target", but with an A target there's nowhere to go. You're either "just good enough" or "not good enough".

I pleaded with the HT and Head of Upper School to reduce the targets, but they wouldn't play ball.

In the end he achieved all As (this summer), which was a great achievement, but I would have preferred a happier, less stressed boy.

Hopefully with new exams the elite grades will be rarer, and schools will not set them as targets, but leave them as an aspiration.

I think a sensible model is to set A grade targets in yr9/10 for these students. Then at the end of yr10/start of yr11 increase the target to an A if parent, pupil and teacher agree that's a good idea.

After all these children presumably got L5 from primary, so a B grade would be acceptable progress = 3 Levels, and an A great is "good" progress.

[wordfactory]

daphnedill I think the vast majority do get A*s. Over 85%, I think. And the rest are As I'd guess.

But I do think the HT has a point. Stuff can happen to the best amongst us!

[iclaudius]

I don't get what's to handle really?
Just saying that's what they 'could' get
Ds was predicted this and got it but when he was lazy we'd use it to say 'if you don't get this you'll be asking yourself why not'

[ontheallotment]

OP, I think reducing the targets at this point is daft. Once they've been set the damage (if any) has already been done and your dd will know what the target had been.

The key thing is to make them understand that while meeting them is nice, it's not the be-all-and-end-all. Employers will be impressed by a mix of As and As almost as much and what follows is much more important in any case so these results are not going to be career limiting (unless truely dire, but that would seem vanishingly unlikely). Definitely don't get into the whole rewards for meeting targets or rewards for grades thing as that just adds to the pressure.

If it cheers her up at all, I know a lad who had a straight A targets, but then, as that apparently wasn't challenging enough, half his subjects proposed a 100% (dropping no marks at all) target instead.

[JohnnyUtah]

We have a son in the same position. Just tell her it is only paperwork, it s nice to know someone thinks you have the potential to do it, just do yur best, that's all you can do. If she didn't have the target grades to worry about she would say she was feeling the pressure because if her (presumable) track record of A stars in every exam so far.

[daphnedill]

I agree with you, iclaudius. The teachers are more likely to be "beaten up" than the pupils if the grades aren't achieved. When I was teaching I actually found CATs were very good indicators of GCSE results and much more accurate than SATs or FFT.

A pupil with an average CAT score of 125 has the following chances of achieving these GCSE grades in English:

E - 1%
D - 2%
C - 7%
B - 19%
A - 39%
A* - 32%

If a school wants to be in the top 25% for value added results, it will set targets based on the performance of the top quartile for each ability, in this case A. However, more pupils will actually go on to achieve an A than A. From the pupil's point of view, it really doesn't matter what the target is if he/she has done his/her best. Persuading the school to reduce the target grade won't affect the actual outcome in any way.

[LightasaBreeze]

DS CAT iirc was 127, Teacher commented on it at yr7 open evening and said that meant he should get high GCSE results, was predicted all A Actually got 3A, 5A and 4B which he very happy with.

and AAC at A level.

[Bonsoir]

There is no direct relationship between Y7 CAT scores and GCSE results! Performance at GCSE is, of course, partly correlated to academic ability, but it has a lot more to do with the quality of the syllabus delivery (teaching) and the hard work of the pupils, as well as the quality of the support at home.

[wordfactory]

Well yes indeed Bonsoir.

There is one issue that directly effects results, to which schools don't like to draw too much attention: quality of teaching!

[curlew]

Dd's school made it very clear that the was a huge difference between "targets"- what it would be possible to get! all other things being equal and "predictions" - what the school actually think the candidate is going to get.

[wordfactory]

I also tink a lot of parents get breathless with excitement at such predictions (not you OP); you see it here on MN all the time.

Posters merrily telling people that their DC are 'predicted all A*s' in year 9 or 10!!! .

I must admit to having a little smile as they so obviously think it's a done deal!

[Bonsoir]

There is a lot of confusion between ability and achievement.

[mindgone]

I would view the targets as a nice complement, and then get on with the work!

[lljkk]

I nearly fainted last night when I saw y7-DD's math target, 8. I think that's for end of y8 since she's rated as 7c now. But still, L8! She's got stress bunny inclinations as things are.
Reading this thread with interest if anyone has any more good ideas about how to convince self-motivated kids that the target is just a suggestion, not a requirement.
I still haven't much clue what DD's CAT scores were.

[curlew]

If she's a 7c now, level 8 is a perfectly sensible target for the end of year 8- it's only 3 sub levels in nearly 2 years!

[lljkk]

It's still a trajectory of high achievement, though. She's not a robot, it's normal for most people to plateau and the targets have little room to allow that to be normal and respectable. That's what I don't like. She doesn't need a target to achieve. But She might need encouragement in the work-life balance area.

Target driven education seems to have so few benefits for kids.

I was explaining to someone that I practice schizophrenic parenting. With high achiever child It's like holding the reins tightly on a racehorse to make sure they have pace to last the whole course. With another DC I've a firm boot planted permanently in backside to make him do any some work. 3rd child has emotional issues so constantly baffled handling, whilst youngest is sweet as pudding but probably a bit dim, so I'm relieved if I can just get him to average.

And another thing... how would DC school know my educational levels? I don't remember telling school. Should I lie if they do ask?

[NoComet]

OP let your DD read this thread. I know my DD1 would understand daphenill's figures and the HTs comments about RL.

A* can only ever be an aspirational target. The result the DC will get with not only with hard work and ability, but perfect teaching and an exam that exactly follows that child's teaching and revision. Oh and perfect marking too.

To my mind there are, as your DD found in Drama, just too many variables for A* ever to be a predicted grade for all, but a few brilliant mathematicians.