So will it be Free Movement or not?

[ChristineS]

Given that most Brexiters wanted reduced immigration, would it be a real stich-up if the powers that be go for a free trade deal that has to include continued free movement of people within the EU? I suspect that this will be the outcome. How would you feel about that?

[HeadDreamer]

The special category visa allows entry on arrival with indefinite leave to remain and work. However you aren't entitle to all benefits.

in case you didn't know.

[HPFA]

This is Mark Stanford, a journalist writing in the Telegraph

Some Leave supporters may feel betrayed by a continuation of free movement. But the alternative is unthinkable. If we leave the EEA, we risk breaking up the Union, and doing untold damage to the economy. The rumblings in financial markets of the last few days may prove to be insignificant in comparison to the consequences of a full British exit from the single market.

It is time for the Leave campaign to make clear that ending free movement is off the table, and that this is no bad thing.

No, Mark, the time to make that clear was before the vote!!

[Eve]

As well as free movement having to be retained to access the single market , You do realise EU subsidies will need to still be paid and we will still need to adhere to EU laws and regulations!

Let's be like Norway and Switerzland .... Except no one actually looked at the cost of living there!

[frumpet]

One of my FB 'friends' has started with the whole 'we have been a sold a pup' wailing it's not fair , this is not what we voted for malarky . I did point out the photo of his postal vote ballot paper that he had proudly put up on his feed , that simply stated it was a vote for in or out . The goverment were saying in , anyone else who said out wasn't in a posistion to offer anything at all and could be in no way held accountable for anything they said , they could only offer empty promises .

I did say all this to him well before he voted , that the only people who could make a promise that could possibly be held accountable for were those in power at the time of the Ref. But apparently I was wrong , mistaken , misinformed , project fear blah blah blah !

[redhat]

this is a neat summary written by lawyers

[ItIsHowItIsx]

With reference to Switzerland:- Switzerland is in many ways closer to the EU than the UK is. It is in the Schengen zone so there is free movement as in the EU countries. There was a recent vote in Switzerland when the people of Switzerland decided that they would like this free movement to be restricted (same discussion as in the UK, cheap workers from EU coming and taking jobs, housing etc....). The deal hasn't been agreed and implemented yet, but there are already consequences looming - Switzerland gets research grants which it seems will not be renewed, Erasmus program is on hold and many, many other things. I don't think the EU is going to be very willing to compromise either with Switzerland or the UK if they don't allow freedom of movement. Another consequence in Switzerland of being non-EU is that import tax has to be paid on almost all goods (including on your online shopping from outside Switzerland)coming into Switzerland. Choice of products within Switzerland is much, much more limited than in the EU countries and it is EXPENSIVE! Some identical products are twice as expensive than in neighbouring Germany. An increasing number of people shop for everything in Germany (including pre-fab houses) because it is so much cheaper. People resident in Switzerland have the luxury to be able to just pop over the border to shop-something not really possible in the UK. I completely respect the democratic vote, but sadly the politicians have hugely failed in realistically explaining the possible consequences of leaving the EU.

[ItIsHowItIsx]

Thanks redhat. THis is exactly the information the people needed to be given by the politicians before making a decision which way to vote. What were the politicians doing instead????

[thecatfromjapan]

It was made clear. It was labelled 'Project Fear' by the Leave people.

Even Mumsnet, for example, had a webchat with neutral experts laying this out.

[HeadDreamer]

The deal hasn't been agreed and implemented yet, but there are already consequences looming - Switzerland gets research grants which it seems will not be renewed,

DH is in research and he said Switerzland has been reduced to some lower status in Horizon 2020 because of the referendum.

However, I don't see how it will end well if we don't restrict free movement. That will lead to people abandoning the Conservatives and we end up with UKIP. It's a much worse scenario.

I'm a kiwi so I know quite well what the Australian/NZ point based system is like. We can have something similar to the trans tasman agreement, with a special category visa for EU citizens. That will allow them to come to work. But they'll be restricted for any benefits. EU citizens are welcome to apply for residency via the point based system also. (However truth be told, very few kiwis did after the 2001 law change). As a special category permanent resident you aren't allow many benefits, including university education or even state assistance after the flood and fire. They can also be deported back to NZ if they committed a crime that has a 1+ year jail sentence.

It creates a lot of unjust for kiwis who are long term residents. Because after paying many many years of tax, they still aren't allow to get any help. And there isn't a path to full citizenship unless you are a high flyer. This essentially created an underclass. And the rights to deport is very cruel as many affected have lived their entire life in Australia. But it would be a start for the UK/EU relationship. And should somehow appease people fearful of immigration. We can refine the status as time goes by. However the tricky bit is to get the EU to agree to such a movement agreement.

[thecatfromjapan]

I think that remark from Michael Gove about us all being post-experts was a huge factor. I think it encouraged people not to look at readily available information. The statistics on how voters voted and the information they looked at prior to making their decision is a bit scary. for example, many UKIP voters only looked at information provided by UKIP. That implies a level of faith not seen since the days of medieval religion.

For me, the problem is that people are still no looking for information, which is worrying because we are now in a situation where we need to pressure our government to try and make the deal that is in our interests. Which is, of course, hard, given that we have a negotiating partner (or partners) that may not be very accommodating.

Still, there needs to be informed engagement and pressure now.

[ItIsHowItIsx]

THanks thecatfromjapan. I don't watch TV, read selected newspapers and don't live in the UK so I missed it. But this was all pretty obvious to me during the lead up to the vote.

[HeadDreamer]

People resident in Switzerland have the luxury to be able to just pop over the border to shop-something not really possible in the UK.

I'm thinking pre-fab houses via RoI? I can't help but joke about our hopeless situation. I'm for remain and I know we are in for a very very bad time. But we just have to make the best out of this bad situation. Don't we?

[thecatfromjapan]

Yes.

I wonder if its's becoming clearer now because 'Project Leave' are now no longer running around, setting a news agenda with improbably porkies and fantasies (which had to be refuted - but even refuting them gave them some ind of legitimacy), keeping the news climate quite hysterical and 'full', and not permitting a focus on the important stuff.

Do you think that being outside the UK filtered out some of that?

I'm genuinely interested by the fact that people are saying they didn't get information. I've never encountered a situation in which there was so much information, so I am interested in this reported experience.

[thecatfromjapan]

I'm appreciating the information about Switzerland on this thread.

[BumbleNova]

ah - if it wasnt so awful, I would be rolling around clutching my sides.

there was never any prospect of turning off free movement. it would damage the city of london too much and the leave campaign would never let that happen.

people who voted leave fell for it hook, line and sinker. when they realise, it would be priceless.

on that note - we need a change in the law. it should be a criminal offence to make false or misleading statements when campaigning for office or a referendum.

[ItIsHowItIsx]

I admit that because I couldn't vote (been out of the UK for too long), I didn't read a huge amount of detail, but I ddin't find the answers to a lot of my questions in what I did read. I think there is a problem that people stick to reading the newspapers they always read and newspapers really don't give a balanced argument, they give the people that read them what they want to hear.
It will be interesting for Switzerland to see how this pans out for the UK with the EU....

[frumpet]

It is all very well debatng point systems etc , but surely what will happen is what the EU allows to happen to allow us to remain part of the single market ?

[BumbleNova]

yes frumpet - that is exactly what people are conveniently glossing over.

[FreeButtonBee]

It's not free movement of people that will kill the city (although it's not going to help but the city could manage in some sort of points system given that most people they employ are graduate level or higher). It's freedom of services and the very real risk that they will lose their passport into the EU. This means that an English company can advise and lend money to EU companies. Can hold their money, invest heir money etc. All on the basis of their UK regulated status (which is run by the FCA). All they need to do to operate in eg France is to pop a one page letter in the post to the French regulators and bingo, off they go. Lovely.

If we lose the right to provide services into the EU, then every London based bank/fund will have to either set up in the EU (in which case why keep London going) or fully comply with all the local regulator rules in every country in the EU. Not fun.

Which is why the US banks will move to Dublin or Frankfurt and th EU banks will fuck off to their home state.

[BumbleNova]

agreed FreeButton. I think our best hope to keep our economy going is to somehow retain the passports or some sort of equivalence. but the exodus has already started. the only thing I can comfort myself with is that it takes time to get authorised as a bank or an investment or payment firm and if we can come up with a solution before that happens, london will not be decimated.

[RainYourRottingMyDhaliaBulbs]

as far as I am aware nothing has been decided or barely discussed not openly anyway.

I just see posters desperate for problems and issues

[RainYourRottingMyDhaliaBulbs]

There no glossing over anything, the areas with dense immigration voted leave.

The specter of UKIP is not on the horizon but in parliament....the fox in the hen coop as one of them said.

Does anyone really think they are going to fluff immigration issue and give more votes to ukip?
ovr 50 countries trade with eu and only 2/3 have free movement.

[frumpet]

Rain I don't think anyone is deperate for problems , far from it , we are desperate for solutions that are not going to decimate our economy .

The problem with the Referendum was that the vote was very simple : in or out of the EU . It did not say leave Europe , quite apart from the fact that it is impossible and would involve doing something spectacular with plate techtonics , that is not what it said . The ballot paper said nothing about immigration at all , people may have been told that leaving the EU would in someway make a difference to the level of EU immigration , but none of the people who mentioned it were in a posistion to offer anything whatsoever in regards to immigration policy .

[thecatfromjapan]

Totally agree, FreeButtonBee. It's an enormous thing (the passport for the City) that is now in the hands of the EU. I can't quite believe that immigration - yes or no - is still such a high concern. Yes, I get about fears of civil disorder once the UKIPpers work out what's going on BUT I think the persisting climate of loathing towards bankers is stopping people spelling out what the loss of a crucial part of the economy is going to do to the UK.

[thecatfromjapan]

The areas with dense immigration did not vote Leave. London? Manchester? Bristol?