So will it be Free Movement or not?

[ChristineS]

Given that most Brexiters wanted reduced immigration, would it be a real stich-up if the powers that be go for a free trade deal that has to include continued free movement of people within the EU? I suspect that this will be the outcome. How would you feel about that?

[justbogoff]

I'm in the (post) industrial north and the last thing I want to get rid of is the city.
Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Keep earning bonuses and paying taxes ladies. It's much appreciated.

[justbogoff]

Fuck, that's a dream team made in hell

[thecatfromjapan]

[BumbleNova]

christ - I'm even more depressed to read that thecat

I meant liar above - autocorrect got me.

I honestly think it is because people genuinely want to city to cease to be and for everything that stands for to go up in smoke. I get that the UK is too london centric, but killing london is like being in a plane and deciding the engine is too dominant.

I am still really angry about this. part of me wants to watch the post industrial areas which voted leave so heavily just rot, the better part of me fears that the people who will really feel the impact are those that can least afford it.

I will be ok - no matter what happens. we will move to frankfurt or dublin if that ends up being where the work is. so will everyone else who works in the city.

[MitzyLeFrouf]

I really had hoped that Zac Goldsmith's repugnant mayoral campaign meant we'd seen the last of the scummy Lynton Crosby. He is a destructive force in British politics.

[thecatfromjapan]

I agree with BumbleNova. Bizarrely, that message is still not out there. I think a. not wanting to increase panic on the markets b. not wanting to increase panic in the population c. political shambles in both main parties d. continuing ambivalence towards City is stopping it getting through.

I keep seeing stuff written by Leftie friends celebrating the exit of the City as some sort of dawn of a left-wing utopia. It won't be. The City alone provides 10 per cent of tax receipts. That's the money that builds and stocks and staffs hospitals, puts books in schools, maintains schools, pays benefits. Never mind all the money generated around and about.

I actually can't believe this.

I know that there's this whole thing that the vote was strong amongst the disaffected, fed up with 'being fed crumbs from the table of the City/London' but that is our major industry now. All of us. And what is going to replace it? You can't just set up a local scheme to kick-start major, income generating industries. It doesn't work like that.

So many of the projections for post-Brexit seem to assume the City will stay. That is in no way guaranteed. At all. In fact, it's looking less likely as the failure of preparation for this becomes more apparent.

In other news, Boris Johnson has hired Lynton Crosby as his campaign manager for PM. He has The Sun behind him. I feel absolutely sickened by the fact that he must be thinking: 'Oh. Not so bad. It'll all work out. Now, what am I going to wear for the photo opportunity when I win." It makes me sick. He is provably a man with no capacity to put the needs of state above his own short-term, greedy desires. He is NOT who we need.

[BumbleNova]

it is one of the cornerstones of the EU. the four freedoms - people, services, goods and capital. they are the founding principles.

I dont envy Boris - he has fucked up big time and he knows it. but he is also a pathological lawyer so deserves all of this and more.

niceguy I am also sat here praying I am wrong. I have no job if we cant figure this out. I think realistically, the best we can hope for is a bifurcation. I.e. banks move their european operations elsewhere but keep a london operation. despite the lack of access to the EU markets, we are a very sophisticated and wealthy market for financial services.

[MitzyLeFrouf]

He wrote his Telegraph column trying to get the Remainers on board and now after lots of alarmed squawks from the Tory Eurosceptics he's backtracked on the column. All in 24 hours.

But he'll have a tough road ahead. Yes you can have single market access and yes you can restrict free movement. But you can't do both.

[scarlets]

I'm seeing on Twitter that Botis Johnson now hopes to restrict free movement, having written something different in the Telegraph yesterday.

[fakenamefornow]

Anyone know why the EU is so wedded to the policy of free movement?

[niceguy2]

@Bumble - I hope for all our sakes you are wrong.

The past week has shaken my belief in democracy and the wisdom of crowds to the core.

I honestly think that there's a good case to make it a legal requirement that newspapers provide fair and balanced coverage. I think comic's like The Sun has had years to whip up anti immigration/EU rhetoric and help peddle the lies that has got us into this situation and now the paper feels it's OK to backpeddle.

[BumbleNova]

Niceguy - i know it sounds like superlative and exaggeration but it wont be a slow decline.

I wont bore you with the details of the financial regulation regime but basically all UK banks and other regulated financial services firms will have no choice, they will need to leave because they need access to the EU single market. the centre of power will shift, to either Frankfurt or Dublin. it would be prohibitively expensive to remain in the UK and the red tape would be impossible to navigate. We will loose all that work and wealth. it is literally mind boggling. I cannot believe Boris allowed this to happen.

[niceguy2]

It's almost like a perfect storm.

A couple of years ago, the bankers were the root of all evil and now it's the EU. People look for someone to blame as long as it's not themselves.

Unfortunately if we lose even a small percentage of our financial services to the EU, we lose a lot of tax revenue which the rest of us have to make up.

Unfortunately that message got lost during the referendum with everyone focussing solely on the £350m for the NHS bullshit claim and it was taken as gospel whilst few actually understand the importance of the City of London to our nation's finances.

I don't think the City will vanish, that is crazy. But what you'll find is a slow decline. So in ten years time it won't be as big and we won't have as much tax as a result.

[RiverTam]

i live in an area of London with exceptionally high immigration. Over 70% Remain.

[BumbleNova]

rain - could you please any name country that has free trade with the EU and no freedom of movement?

we are not desperate for issues - we are simply pointing out that we have put ourselves in a very weak negotiating position.

the EU law and other EU member states will not permit us to have free trade without free movement - see Angela Merkels comments. and she is by far the most sympathetic to us.

Leave have promised the impossible - it is simply not deliverable to not have free movement.

[thecatfromjapan]

The areas with dense immigration did not vote Leave. London? Manchester? Bristol?

[thecatfromjapan]

Totally agree, FreeButtonBee. It's an enormous thing (the passport for the City) that is now in the hands of the EU. I can't quite believe that immigration - yes or no - is still such a high concern. Yes, I get about fears of civil disorder once the UKIPpers work out what's going on BUT I think the persisting climate of loathing towards bankers is stopping people spelling out what the loss of a crucial part of the economy is going to do to the UK.

[frumpet]

Rain I don't think anyone is deperate for problems , far from it , we are desperate for solutions that are not going to decimate our economy .

The problem with the Referendum was that the vote was very simple : in or out of the EU . It did not say leave Europe , quite apart from the fact that it is impossible and would involve doing something spectacular with plate techtonics , that is not what it said . The ballot paper said nothing about immigration at all , people may have been told that leaving the EU would in someway make a difference to the level of EU immigration , but none of the people who mentioned it were in a posistion to offer anything whatsoever in regards to immigration policy .

[RainYourRottingMyDhaliaBulbs]

There no glossing over anything, the areas with dense immigration voted leave.

The specter of UKIP is not on the horizon but in parliament....the fox in the hen coop as one of them said.

Does anyone really think they are going to fluff immigration issue and give more votes to ukip?
ovr 50 countries trade with eu and only 2/3 have free movement.

[RainYourRottingMyDhaliaBulbs]

as far as I am aware nothing has been decided or barely discussed not openly anyway.

I just see posters desperate for problems and issues

[BumbleNova]

agreed FreeButton. I think our best hope to keep our economy going is to somehow retain the passports or some sort of equivalence. but the exodus has already started. the only thing I can comfort myself with is that it takes time to get authorised as a bank or an investment or payment firm and if we can come up with a solution before that happens, london will not be decimated.

[FreeButtonBee]

It's not free movement of people that will kill the city (although it's not going to help but the city could manage in some sort of points system given that most people they employ are graduate level or higher). It's freedom of services and the very real risk that they will lose their passport into the EU. This means that an English company can advise and lend money to EU companies. Can hold their money, invest heir money etc. All on the basis of their UK regulated status (which is run by the FCA). All they need to do to operate in eg France is to pop a one page letter in the post to the French regulators and bingo, off they go. Lovely.

If we lose the right to provide services into the EU, then every London based bank/fund will have to either set up in the EU (in which case why keep London going) or fully comply with all the local regulator rules in every country in the EU. Not fun.

Which is why the US banks will move to Dublin or Frankfurt and th EU banks will fuck off to their home state.

[BumbleNova]

yes frumpet - that is exactly what people are conveniently glossing over.

[frumpet]

It is all very well debatng point systems etc , but surely what will happen is what the EU allows to happen to allow us to remain part of the single market ?

[ItIsHowItIsx]

I admit that because I couldn't vote (been out of the UK for too long), I didn't read a huge amount of detail, but I ddin't find the answers to a lot of my questions in what I did read. I think there is a problem that people stick to reading the newspapers they always read and newspapers really don't give a balanced argument, they give the people that read them what they want to hear.
It will be interesting for Switzerland to see how this pans out for the UK with the EU....