Is anything going to get cheaper after, assuming it happens, Brexit?

[frozendaisy]

Parking the utter disaster that is Westminster at the moment:

With unpredictable weather patterns and a weakening pound one can only assume that almost everything is going to get more expensive. Is anything going to get cheaper do you think? We are not on the breadline but at some point, if predictions and the effects of a weakened pound it's going to start hitting everyone where it hurts in the wallet surely?

[Clavinova]

That's me finished - I have to go out.

[jasjas1973]

The EU grants come from money we contribute - the funds would be better managed here

You'd like to think so.... but why do you think these regions, such as Cornwall, need objective 1 funding in the first place? .... because successive Govt's have ignored the regions, if Westminster managed these funds its highly likely they'd waste them, perhaps BJ would try and build a new bridge over the Thames.

[sionnachbeag]

aww clav, a little dig finds the information you have given is the OBE estimate of 2019 contributions.

They estimate 7.1 billion net contribution, so a 0.8 percent net contribution in tsrms of public spending.

Copy and paste all you like, but it shoes you don't really get it.

[sionnachbeag]

The EU parliament vote also was on post 2020 spending, when we will be out, and also as part or the EU democratic process this has to be agreed by the council.

You don't actually read or understand what you post, you just google search anything that you think fits.

Rather sad

[ListeningQuietly]

The EU grants come from money we contribute - the funds would be better managed here.
But the long standing record of the UK Government (red, blue, stripey) has been a lack of investment in poorer regions
hence why EU grants were needed to fill the gap.

[Frequency]

I don't think anything will be cheaper - why should it? I hope we have less 'cheap' products and rely more on 'seasonality'

The thousands of families relying on foodbanks will be overjoyed that they can support British farming by buying more expensive, locally produced food. I expect they'll be doubly pleased when it turns out that the benefits bill is one of those things that gets cheaper as business tax is cut to attract overseas investors.

[Havanananana]

Are the £20bn customs costs speculation?

That's the figure from the HMRC report to government.
In addition, businesses will be paying £6bn - £9bn in ongoing costs. This does not include the costs of any customs delays, or the costs to hauliers of having trucks stuck in queues for days on end earning no money.


If we leave with a 'no-deal', I think the general idea is that we won't pay the £39bn divorce bill.

That might be Johnson's gambit, (and for the 1000th time, it is not a divorce bill, it is the settlement of commitments already made) but it will crash headlong into reality as soon as the UK attempts to present itself as a trustworthy partner in any further negotiations.

'No Deal' is something that doesn't exist - even if the UK leaves the EU on 31st October with 'No Deal,' a new Deal will be required on 1st November in order for trade to continue. Even Johnson's GATT fantasy requires there to be a Deal in place.

[Havanananana]

19 Jul 2019 Britain’s contribution to the EU has shot up by £2.6 billion in the past 12 months, new Treasury figures show, as the UK’s growing economy was used to prop up Brussels’ budget.

This is good news though - it shows how much the UK is continuing to prosper while a member of the EU - although the Telegraph cannot resist repeating the fallacy that the UK is somehow propping up the EU budget.

What you always fail to include in your posts is that the UK benefits by £10 for every £1 sent to the EU - in terms of free trade, frictionless access to the huge market 20 miles away, common standards, minimal red tape etc. All of which will incur costs once the UK leaves.

[jasjas1973]

The £39 billion isn't money sitting in a govt acc waiting to be handed over... its monies to paid to the EU over many years, decades in the case of pensions.

Failing to pay it, will sour our relationship with them as we try and negotiate a FTA.

[Clavinova]

Havanananana
Are the £20bn customs costs speculation?
That's the figure from the HMRC report to government.

You were not aware then, that the head of HMRC had 'double counted' and included EU customs costs in his 'speculation'? He wrote to Nicky Morgan on 4 June 2018 clarifying this;

www.parliament.uk/.../Correspondence/2017-19/hmrc-customs-costs-040618

[Clavinova]

I see the link doesn't work.

sionnachbeag
The EU parliament vote also was on post 2020 spending, when we will be out, and also as part or the EU democratic process this has to be agreed by the council.

Yes - I know!! Some people on here want us to stay in the EU.

[jasjas1973]

www.tax.org.uk/media-centre/blog/media-and-politics/hmrc-warns-no-deal-brexit-costs-run-billions

Written in 2019..... even if you halved these, its still a massive burden on business and ultimately the consumer.

[Clavinova]

In addition, businesses will be paying £6bn-£9bn in ongoing costs.This does not include the costs of any customs delays, or the costs to hauliers of having trucks stuck in queues for days on end earning no money.

More speculation.

[jasjas1973]

Uk asks EU for help policing the Persian Gulf after USA tells uk to protect its own shipping.
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-iran/britain-calls-for-european-naval-mission-to-counter-irans-piracy-idUKKCN1UH172

Not going well for global britain and its closest ally is it? tbh you couldn't make up this mess and humiliation if you tried.

[jasjas1973]

So, trucks etc won't be stuck in Dover/Calais? the didn't prep Kents M/ways? unlikely given we will be going from frictionless trade to WTO inside 4 months.

[Clavinova]

Written in 2019
The article was written in 2019, but the author is still relying on the same 'speculative' figures from HMRC's report in 2018;

HMRC estimates this will cost £13 billion per annum in administrative costs /
We therefore estimate that the total admin burden on UK-EU trade is around £13bn a year.

The £6.5m 'each' figure is disputed by 'Brexit' economists, who have pointed out that HMRC are basing their figures on extra paper declarations, when most customs declarations are completed online, reducing the costs.

The article in your link was also written before the temporary tariff regime was declared in March.

So, trucks etc won't be stuck in Dover/Calais?
Not for days on end.

[sionnachbeag]

"Brexit economists"

Have you read their ramblings? As well as the take down of them by the LSE and others?

[Havanananana]

So, trucks etc won't be stuck in Dover/Calais?

• Not for days on end
  
  They were stuck for days on end in March when French Customs worked to current rules.
  
  On 31st October the UK becomes a third country. From the Government's own website:
  [T]he UK Government does not have control over the checks which member states impose at the EU border. The European Commission has made it clear that, in the event of a ‘no deal’ scenario, it will impose full third country controls on people and goods entering the EU from the UK.

[ListeningQuietly]

Where is the legislation for the "Temporary Tariff Regime"
What date was it passed ?
there is no link in here
www.gov.uk/guidance/check-temporary-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-after-eu-exit

[Clavinova]

Have you read their ramblings?

Not much - but HMRC were counting paper declarations, which is a nonsense, and I have already halved your £20bn figure.

[Clavinova]

ListeningQuietly
On your link;
Published 13 March 2019
Last updated 20 March 2019

[ListeningQuietly]

That is an HMRC page which refers to legislation
where is the legislation? (on legislation.gov.uk)

[Clavinova]

Where is the legislation for the "Temporary Tariff Regime"
Oh, I see what you mean - I don't know.

[Clavinova]

Cross post

[sionnachbeag]

Not my figure. However i would trust HMRC over brexit economists.

The cost of trade would increase through ntb red tape and it would be significant.