Is anything going to get cheaper after, assuming it happens, Brexit?

[frozendaisy]

Parking the utter disaster that is Westminster at the moment:

With unpredictable weather patterns and a weakening pound one can only assume that almost everything is going to get more expensive. Is anything going to get cheaper do you think? We are not on the breadline but at some point, if predictions and the effects of a weakened pound it's going to start hitting everyone where it hurts in the wallet surely?

Just happened to notice comments upthread about remainers being ultra if they boycott Wetherspoons, Next, Dyson. ( I do.)

So the Brexiters and Leavers whose votes have directly contributed to the following businesses failing and jobs lost are all ultras too?

jobs~lost~to~brexit

It is funny the way so many here argue that a drop in price of houses and shares is not a benefit to anyone. Especially as so many on here (including me) benefited from previous drops in housing prices in the 90s and early noughties (and 2008/2009).

Of course some will lose jobs but the vast majority will retain them (unless you really think this is going to be worse than the 1920s recession or the Greek bailout).

Health workers, teachers, retail workers etc etc will all be able to afford better houses than they would have otherwise. Spurious arguments about credit becoming more expensive may or may not come to pass.

Equally cheaper shares will be a huge boon to anyone contributing to a pension scheme beginning or mid career. When shares recover (even over 20 years), they will benefit from the uplift and the increased (%) dividend. I for one would buy shares on any major sell off post Brexit.

It could be argued that the 2008 bailout which protected asset prices at the expense of taxing middle income payers higher was one of the causes of the ‘fuck you’ Brexit vote. Taking from teachers/junior doctors in northern England to support those with multi million houses and pension portfolios in London was not the smartest ever move.

So, in the event of a chaotic Brexit, my central scenario would be temporary cheapening of assets which, as ever, would benefit some at the expense of others.

Capitalism is actually meant to work this way to efficiently allocate capital. We have crony capitalism at the moment.

Tim Martin is pro Brexit because he says that once on WTO terms, Britain can just choose to lower all import tariffs to zero, with no adverse affects. Wow, amazing!

He can’t see beyond the end of his selfish little nose, his profits will go up!

Never mind the problems that exporters will have, or those that lose their jobs because their businesses choose to move to the EU. Also how long can the UK continue to pay tax for exports but not make any tax for imports? Until we get a trade deal? How long will it take to get a trade deal with our biggest trading partner, after we’ve dropped them in it and reneged on our pension commitments and other divorce settlement responsibilities? Are they going to roll over and play nice once we’ve done that?

There was a very interesting statement in the excellent panorama programme this week “Britain’s Brexit Crisis”- that the UK think this is all about trade - but the EU especially think it’s about something much more important - peace within the EU - so they won’t let us have our cake and eat it, even if it’s painful to them economically.

Hollyhoc:
Not only do I boycott known Brexit-supporting businesses, I also boycott tax-avoiding businesses, like Starbucks and Amazon. I also refuse to buy any product containing palm oil and write to the company concerned to ask why the fuck they're using it.
I consider these boycotts to be one of the few ways in which I can make a very, very small difference. I'm such a fanatic in that respect; you would hate me.

cherin
30% extra for olive oil?? :-O

I'm pretty sure the tariff for olive oil has been set at 0% under the temporary tariff schedule.

Snowy111
Also how long can the UK continue to pay tax for exports but not make any tax for imports?

The importer generally pays the tariff - not the exporter, unless they have agreed a separate contract between themselves.
As far as I'm aware, we don't make any money from import tariffs at the moment - we collect the revenue on behalf of the EU Commission and forward it on to them - when we leave the EU, import tariff revenue will be kept by the UK Government?

Happy to be corrected.

Tim Martin is an idiot, the tariff on Australian wine is 7p per bottle.

He also said he could import wine from Chile tariff free, but he can do that now anyway under an EU trade deal.

Hargreaves and Lansdowne are both pro Brexit
which is why they kept recommending Neil Woodford's funds long after other people bailed out

the tariff on Australian wine is 7p per bottle

The tariff is negligible when compared with the other taxes that the UK government imposes on a bottle of wine. On a £7.50 bottle of Australian wine, the Excise duty and VAT account for £3.41 of the retail price. The same bottle can be bought in a supermarket in Austria for €4.50 (approx. £4.00) - the price difference is due to UK taxes and has nothing to do with EU taxes.

Anyone who thinks that Wetherspoons or Tesco are going to pass on the 7p reduction in the tariff is going to be very disappointed.

As far as I'm aware, we don't make any money from import tariffs at the moment - we collect the revenue on behalf of the EU Commission and forward it on to them

And the EU then sends most of it back to the member countries in the form of grants and subsidies to industries and agriculture and social programmes etc.

when we leave the EU, import tariff revenue will be kept by the UK Government?

Correct - it will be used to pay for the £20bn needed to be spent on new Customs infrastructure, systems, Customs officers, border controls etc. that are currently not needed. Note that this is just what the government will have to pay - businesses face a similar bill for the increased administrative costs, additional staff and training, new systems, new export and import licenses, employment of customs agents, new certifications for products etc. All of which will reduce the ability of British companies to compete in Europe.

Yes sorry I was lazy with the details, but the principle is the same. If import tariffs are reduced to zero, that’s zero revenue, but exporters will still be disadvantaged and less competitive due to Other countries’ import taxes.

If import tariffs are reduced to zero, that’s zero revenue

Swings and roundabouts - UK importers won't have to pay the tariffs. We will still be collecting tariffs for 13% of imports - it's currently 20%.

but exporters will still be disadvantaged and less competitive

It depends what they are exporting/on the value of the pound - many UK exporters have benefited since the referendum.

And the EU then sends most of it back to the member countries in the form of grants and subsidies to industries and agriculture and social programmes etc.

Not necessarily back to the UK though.

the £20bn needed to be spent on new Customs infrastructure

We won't be paying the £39bn exit bill or future EU contributions.We also have 39bn euros lodged with the European Investment Bank which the EU are supposed to be returning + 3.5bn euros in captital.

lonelyplanetmum
So the Brexiters and Leavers whose votes have directly contributed to the following businesses failing and jobs lost are all ultras too?

Your jobs-lost-to-Brexit list is as inaccurate as ever:

25,000 travel industry jobs lost since the vote? Jaguar Land Rover 24,800 jobs - location 'unknown'? Ford Bridgend? Why are Ford cutting 5,000 jobs in Germany - they're not leaving the EU? ...

"We also have 39bn euros lodged with the European Investment Bank which the EU are supposed to be returning + 3.5bn euros in captital."

You think that will get returned if we don't pay what we have agreed?

" many UK exporters have benefited since the referendum. "

Yet the current account deficit has increased, and whilst some UK exporters have benefited many of the largest rely on cross Europe supply chains and raw materials bought in dollars, so have seen costs rise too.

"And the EU then sends most of it back to the member countries in the form of grants and subsidies to industries and agriculture and social programmes etc.

Not necessarily back to the UK though."

Not been to Wales recently then - EU money for projects everywhere North and South. Which will absolutely not be matched by Westminster. As Welsh Leave voters are about to discover.

Not been to Wales recently then

No, but I did read an article a year or so ago, in which people from a Welsh town said the money had been spent on 'cosmetic' projects; a new leisure centre, but relatively few new jobs, plus thousands of pounds spent on a town centre statue - the allocation of funding had to be spent on 'artwork'. While they were erecting the statue, the local council closed the public toilets due to of lack of funding.

We will still be collecting tariffs for 13% of imports - it's currently 20%.

So the benefit will be less than you claimed in your earlier post, Clavinova

many UK exporters have benefited since the referendum

Who? Many exporters have increased their exports in order to provide a buffer stock in the EU to tide them over the period of uncertainty immediately after Brexit, but that is a temporary measure only and will not be replicated once the UK leaves.

The EU then sends most of it back to the member countries in the form of grants and subsidies to industries and agriculture and social programmes etc. Not necessarily back to the UK though.

Yes, back to the UK as well. £ Billions in CAP payments alone.

We won't be paying the £39bn exit bill

The UK will pay for commitments already made (£39bn) and still have the £20bn Customs infrastructure costs - and the UK businesses will lose access to the largest trade bloc on the planet AND be hit with a £20bn bill of their own for all of the import and export infrastructure that they will need..

Why are Ford cutting 5,000 jobs in Germany - they're not leaving the EU?

Because there is currently overcapacity across Europe, so all countries are impacted, but while Germany might lose 5,000 jobs out of 890,000 auto workers, the UK will lose an entire industry

EU money for projects everywhere North and South.

The UK is a net contributor to the EU - it's 'our' money in the first place.

You read an article, Clavinova - but you don't know. It sounds like a rubbish council to me, if they apply for money for things not needed and don't apply for money for things which are needed.

Time and time we see the EU get the blame when the fault lies closer to home.

in which people from a Welsh town said the money had been spent on 'cosmetic' projects; a new leisure centre, but relatively few new jobs, plus thousands of pounds spent on a town centre statue - the allocation of funding had to be spent on 'artwork'. While they were erecting the statue, the local council closed the public toilets due to of lack of funding.

Capital and revenue are different income streams.
s106 or CIL money cannot be used for revenue costs
EU grant funding is the same.

If, despite not having to cover capital items, there was not enough revenue to cover the toilets, that is squarely the fault of Whitehall cutting the block grant, not the EU

"The UK is a net contributor to the EU - it's 'our' money in the first place."

Yes our net contribuition is 0.7% of all public spending, its soo much money.

Its also utterly wiped out by miniscule falls in GDP growth.

And it's in our commercial interest to have stronger economies across the EU so that we can sell to them. Having been in Eastern Europe before the Berlin Wall came down, I am pretty confident that having as many flourishing liberal democracies across Europe so that, if for no other reason, we can sell shit to them, is worth a lot more to our economy.

Havanananana

So the benefit will be less than you claimed in your earlier post

?? I posted;
As far as I'm aware, we don't make any money from import tariffs at the moment - we collect the revenue on behalf of the EU Commission and forward it on to them - when we leave the EU, import tariff revenue will be kept by the UK Government?

many UK exporters have benefited since the referendum
Who?

The fall in the pound in 2016 (which had been overvalued by 10-15% and due a correction in any case) benefitted many UK exporters to EU and non-EU countries.

£ Billions in CAP payments alone

Even President Macron says the CAP is outdated and 'not fit for
purpose'.

The UK will pay for commitments already made (£39bn) and still have the £20bn Customs infrastructure costs.

Are the £20bn customs costs speculation? If we leave with a 'no-deal', I think the general idea is that we won't pay the £39bn divorce bill. I suppose the EU might withhold our 39bn euros in the European Investment Bank.

Germany might lose 5,000 jobs out of 890,000 auto workers

Volkswagen are cutting 7,000 jobs in Germany as well and they could lose 600,000 auto jobs by 2030;

More than 600,000 German jobs at risk due to combustion engine ban, warns Ifo

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/german-job-loss-combustion-engine-ban-600000-employees-workers-car-industry-ifo-a7848226.html

the UK will lose an entire industry
Some good news;

July 2019 BMW has given a boost to the UK car industry by confirming that the production of its new electric Mini will start in Cowley in November. Deliveries of the brand's first fully electric car will start in March 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48921455

July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover to build electric XJ car at Castle Bromwich plant

Jobs safeguarded as car maker aims ‘to create a powerhouse of electrification in the Midlands’

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/05/jaguar-land-rover-to-build-electric-xj-car-at-castle-bromwich-plant

NB I think the Guardian are misreporting tariffs on imported car components under the temporary tariff regime.

NB 39bn euros is a different sum of money to the £39bn divorce bill.

EU grant funding is the same.
The EU grants come from money we contribute - the funds would be better managed here.

19 Jul 2019 Britain’s contribution to the EU has shot up by £2.6 billion in the past 12 months, new Treasury figures show, as the UK’s growing economy was used to prop up Brussels’ budget.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/britains-contribution-eu-rises-20-per-cent-year-uks-booming/

our net contribuition is 0.7%

Is the contribution increasing?
"MEPs voted to boost EU budget to 1.3% GDP"

www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/meps-voted-to-boost-eu-budget-to-1-3-gdp/