Do you remember when politics was boring?
This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.
This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).
There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...
It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?
This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.
If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.
Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.
Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.
Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.
Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?
At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.
We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.
I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.
Brexit
Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun
RedToothBrush · 24/06/2019 10:47
True howabout [tea]
, opinion polls have a
And anyway opinion polls tend to have a +/- 2% margin of error (or more 
).
....as was discovered at the last GE
TiP has given me an interesting statistic to add into the discussion:
... analysis in the current Economist .... the Average vote across all wards in the UK was 59:41 Leave : Remain
The result was only close because of some massive remain bubbles in London and University cities .... it surprised me but the magazine has links to the data
The Economist analysis was apparently that the numbers are probably far more long standing than Remainers would like to think.
In parts of the east Midlands a lot of Asians voted leave to get better immigration rights from outside the EU .....
Apparently the highest leave margin was Boston at 75:25 but the highest remain was 95:5
hence how echo chambers form
I'd add to that that, knowing my own constituency voted 70:30 Remain:Leave and that every LA in Scotland voted Remain (but not all by as much as that) with the overall Scottish vote being 62:38, that it demonstrates even more how utterly different England is, with the exception of the big and university cities (the metropolitan elite 
).
TiP is still having a daily read of the threads though - she treats them like the best newspaper column
More confirmation re BJ and Bannon, this time from another of Bannon's fan girls ; Farage. Interesting article here where he says he doesn't trust BJ but still will support him and also says he would do a deal with the devil to get a "clean Brexit" 
think that ship passed in 2016, or is he talking about his friend over the pond?
DGR - whoever said all Leavers were logical? 
That disjoint is along the same lines as the "Left Behind"/those suffering under austerity voting to give themselves Westminster a bloody nose with their protest vote
In one of BJ's videos, he proudly proclaims that he is the only one who stands up for bankers
Does he really represent what Leavers were voting for ?
Welcome back, louise
I'm glad you returned
Max Hastings: I was Boris Johnson’s boss: he is utterly unfit to be prime minister
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain
There is room for debate about whether he is a scoundrel or mere rogue, but not much about his moral bankruptcy, rooted in a contempt for truth.
....
“We know plenty about your personal life that you would not like to read in the Spectator,”
the then editor of the magazine told the BBC’s chairman, while demanding he order the broadcaster to lay off his own dalliances.
Bland told me he replied:
“Boris, think about what you have just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one.”
He said Johnson blustered into retreat,
but in my own files I have handwritten notes from our possible next prime minister, threatening dire consequences in print if I continued to criticise him.
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