Do you remember when politics was boring?
This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.
This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).
There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...
It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?
This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.
If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.
Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.
Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.
Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.
Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?
At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.
We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.
I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.
Brexit
Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun
RedToothBrush · 24/06/2019 10:47
Let me be clear (as BigChoc pointed out): the percentages I quoted of those who preferred Parliament to "No Deal" to "Delay and PV" were only given those 2 choices 
In the table where they were asked their personal opinions, 39% were supportive of remaining in the EU (43% FT, 41% PT, 30% Retired and 39% unemployed), 39% wanted a clean break (34% FT, 36% PT, 55% retired and 26% unemployed), 13% wanted a Brexit where the UK is closely aligned with the EU # and 9% didn't know.
So even on the personal opinions (as opposed to "What the government/parliament should do), the negative views about the UK's ongoing relationship with the EU are being driven by the retired
howabout You've been massively distorting facts, which isn't your usual standard
Quoting 48% in favour of No Deal is meaningless when no Remain option was allowed
I stated that the only Remain vs Leave was with the WA
- the poll should have adde a question for Remain vs No Deal - which to date also has Remain winning
In fact, since about 2017, every head to head poll of Remain vs a single Leave option has Remain winning
"I see we agree that Art 50 process is not necessary."
Complete distorton of what I said, which was "Leaving without A50 leaves the UK with the same problems "
It not only doesn't avoid the problems such as the backstop
it would also bring additional problems, in that there is a treaty exit mechanism, A50, but the UK chose not to use it
The EU might even be able to go to court over that - or at the least, it would not bother to do any more than dump the same WA terms on the table, as preconditions if the UK wants a trade deal
There is something a bit surreal to being expected to provide competent, thought out, verifiable and truthful 'discussion items' on what is essentially a women's chat forum
That comment is right up there with the twitteratti wondering what is the male faminist response to your GF shouting and roaring at you for having spilt red wine over the furnishings - the consensus answers were go down the pub or get your neighbour to phone the police to calm her down. 
DD3 (age 7) reckons you say you are very very sorry and do your best to clean up the mess - she and her Dad have form.
All of this is discussion is opinion not fact - especially if the topic under discussion is opinion polls. 
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