Do you remember when politics was boring?
This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.
This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).
There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...
It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?
This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.
If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.
Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.
Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.
Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.
Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?
At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.
We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.
I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.
Brexit
Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun
RedToothBrush · 24/06/2019 10:47
A majority of 2 means that only one person needs to cross the floor and/or go against the whip for Parliament to be deadlocked. 
....which puts the Speaker back into the casting vote role!
grannycake
sounds like your MP and mine are on the same page (if not Whatsapp group 
)
The real question is not how they will vote in a possible revote on the WA, but how they would campaign in a GE ? Especially if Corbyn decides that Labour have to "respect the referendum" even then ? Because For all their fine words now, I won't vote for a candidate who is standing for a party where my vote can be considered in any way to be a vote for Brexit. Which is what voting Labour in 2017 was taken to mean (the "80% of Britain voted for Brexit" bollocks).
The problem is we have spent the past 3 years being told to prepare for a Boris premiership, all else has been excluded.
The one thing that would differentiate Hunt from Boris is a complete lack of expectation 
Which would be exacerbated if Boris continues to duck meeting Hunt in TV hustings.
I am quite sure (as I would think are others on here 
) that the EU will indeed be looking at clarifying/amending/adjusting Article 50 in the next iteration of the EU Treaty to ensure that the clusterfuck of the UK's "negotiation" to leave and its ability to revoke right up until the last possible minute cannot happen again.
However, unless and until that new treaty is signed, I don't see how the EU would be able to stop the UK (or any other country, if they were to also want to commit economic suicide) from invoking and revoking A50 ad nauseum - even though it could make life difficult and choose to be less and less amenable in its negotiations
As an aside, I wonder which European city the next treaty would be named after? We've had Paris, Rome, Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon..... I wonder if the next one might be Dublin?
I doubt the UK would choose to use the Art 50 process again. Were it to Revoke with the intention of Leaving eventually I would anticipate it lobbying on the unfitness for purpose of Art 50 and preparing to Leave without it. Unlike the WA there is no lock-in on EU membership AFAIK (Art 50 was supposed to provide a managed glide path for both sides )
Really, howabout The Remain option was not included in that particular question, so that poll is meaningless
In another question in the same survey, same sample of voters, WA vs Remain, Remain won
(They didn't do a straight Remain vs No Deal, afaik)
"If there was a referendum tomorrow with the option of accepting the government’s Brexit agreement or remaining in the EU, which would you support?"
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These are huge problems though with the current government and opposition as we have already had 3 years during which time nothing has happened.
I don't hold out much hope for it
I have absolutely no problem with the idea of revoking on the promise that we can revisit the idea once they have come up with a plan ... only for them to never come up with a plan
And it shouldn't be for the government to design - they have already wasted three years on this shit. The onus should be entirely on the MPs and their advisors who want it. If they want it - they can design it (in their own time - not taking away from parliamentary attendance or constituency time) - and if it's viable, we'll all vote for it. But if they can't be bothered to design it - then they can't have it.
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