Exit Hard Right

[RBeer]

Looks like the fanatics on the right are getting their way and a Hard Brexit is the way its going.
Time to start planning the future....

Reuters.
Britain appears to be heading for a 'hard Brexit' under which its relationship with the European Union is reduced to little more than trade agreements, Scotland's external affairs minister Fiona Hyslop said on Monday.

Scotland recently appointed its own representative, Michael Russell, to take part in talks with Brexit minister David Davis to establish a UK position under which talks with the EU might take place.

"They've met within the last 10 days. The process for those internal negotiations is currently being established," Hyslop told Reuters in Paris after meeting France's European Affairs Minister Harlem Desir to discuss Scotland's attempts to make Brexit as much like remaining in the EU as possible.

"I'm worried just now that the UK looks as if its heading to a hard Brexit. However those internal discussions with Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland have only just started, so we will try and shift that position," she said.

[IamWendy]

'Immediate turmoil' was the tagline of the doom mongers. But when we trigger article 50 and everything is still fine, the remainders will day it will happen when the two years is up, then after that and we're still fine it will be another excuse. One day, we will look back and be so glad we left..... All of us.

[smallfox2002]

"Immediate turmoil' was the tagline of the doom mongers."

There was immediate turmoil, but as it was established that article 50 wouldn't be triggered yet and that the BOE would offer cheap money to keep the economy going everything went back to where it had been, there has been no "boost" to the economy.

Remember all the predictions were made based on the fact that Cameron would trigger article 50 immediately, he hasn't, we haven't left the EU and the short term economic outlook is still slightly worse than it would have been had we remained.

Unicorns for all.

[RBeer]

What I am hearing is that business how now assumed a hard right Brexit and are currently implementing their plans. The financial sector and car manufacturers are moving. As one cfo said to me just today: The fat lady has song and its everyone for himself.

[RedToothBrush]

I would say not to panic just yet.

We can't have hard brexit if a50 is deemed unable to be triggered by royal prerogative. Throwing it back to Parliament will ensure hard Brexit will not happen. a50 is frankly not fit for purpose and there is a high chance this will become increasingly apparent especially if the legal challenges to a50 are successful (which again is pretty likely).

Talk of hard brexit I feel strongly is nothing more than posturing and to appease the hard right at this stage. Its to set up the UK for negotiations. It is to force the EU to realise the situation the UK is in constituentially and how using a50 as the exit is also not in their interests. It is to protect May in the long run from accusations that she was a Remainer. If the legal and democratic system takes much of the decision out of her hands and forces a much softer exit then she is still seen to have been committed to hard brexit, it was just those other remainers than made her do it.

I believe we are more likely to get to a situation where a50 can not be triggered because its not fit for purpose, and is in compatible with the British Constitution (or lack of) but under EU law, the EU is obliged to recognise the will of democracy thus forcing an alternative way of exiting the EU - probably though some sort of new treaty which either allows us to stay in the EU under different terms (possibly the formation of a two tier EU) or to exit under terms which aren't bloody ridiculous for both the UK and EU partners.

In order to satisfy EU law as being the will of democracy this treaty would have to be thrown back to the public in another referendum. Of course we could reject this; this would throw both us and the EU back into another constitutional crisis.

The fact that a50 has even ended up as a court issue rather than simply being triggered means that legal issues are now driving this rather than political ones. An immediate triggering of a50 would have effectively bypassed this, but the outcome would have been pretty much economic, political and legal meltdown (not dissimilar to those evil predictions of 'Project Fear' I suspect). It also could have been found retrospectively to be an illegal act by the PM which of course would have had a few major ramifications. You'll note how many hard liners wanted to go down to route despite this. It says a lot about their respect for democratic and legal process which is more than simply a vote to leave or remain.

Businesses are making plans under the assumption of a hard brexit or prolonged uncertainty. An acknowledgement that a50 is useless, would be helpful. I think this is currently pencilled in for next month with a NI challenge in court in the first/second week and an English based crowd funded one due the third week.

Until the courts decide about a50, the government is really unable to start policy making as the exit route will make such a huge difference to the eventual outcome.

I suspect we will get an exit, but it will be a long game in order to preserve stability which will hopefully help with all those contingencies plans being drawn up at the moment due to the current limbo. I think it unlikely that we will have left the EU by 2020 though which will not please many. Its simply unfeasible for a huge variety of practical reasons with are both UK and EU based.

I think things will be become a lot more clear in the next 6 to 8 weeks. I don't think that hard brexit is inevitable at all. I think it is still a possibility, if the EU are difficult, the court rule in favour of the royal prerogative or Theresa May has a screw loose (this is something I'm not ruling out). I would suggest that she is however doing exactly the same as all the rest of us right now and playing the waiting game. I don't think she has too many other options open to her politically.

[SapphireStrange]

Red, everything you say makes sense. In my rational mind I agree with you.

In the dead of night, though, and at other dark points, I subscribe more to the ' screw loose' theory. The more I think about it, the more I think May is actually swivel-eyed enough that she genuinely hates immigration and foreigners (she does have form from the Home Office), and would love a hard Brexit so she can get rid of them.

I really hope our rational minds are right...

[Peregrina]

I am tempted to agree that she must have a screw loose. Who else would have stood for Leadership at the Tory party at a time like this, when you know that whatever decision you make will piss off a substantial part of the electorate, and a substantial part of your own party? Johnson, for all his buffoonery, was smart enough to see this.

[SapphireStrange]

Johnson wasn't smart enough to foresee being landed with a high-profile job with plenty of potential for embarrassing himself and the nation. This alone makes me think May is much smarter than him and did it for her own personal kicks (and so she can constantly keep him and the other Brexit-tits on the front line and deflect attention from herself).

[RBeer]

Brexit means Brexit means Hard Brexit Right.

And that is and will be a sorry fact.

[Helmetbymidnight]

I don't see it as May's got a screw loose at all. Labour are finished as a political force. The Tories will stay in for years and years. Boris is completely jammy and still conceivably lining himself up for if May fails...

[missmoon]

Red, I hope you are right. It does make sense.

[RedToothBrush]

I think its good that George Osborne has made the point that he does not believe in hard brexit, merely because it shows there is dissent in the ranks and that many Tory MPs will not support May in a Hard Brexit, if it does have to go through parliament.

Remember most Tory MPs were remainers, so if this is debated and May is forced to be more open about it because she is unable to use royal prerogative. She has such a slim majority in the commons, it will not take much of a rebellion to block harder proposals even with a dysfunctional Labour party, especially if things are thrown back from the Lords for review.

Brexit, I believe, will come down to not what people want but ultimately what is possible. What is possible will come down to how the mechanisms of negotiation work - from whether its royal preg or parliament, whether we are deemed WTO members or have to re-establish this, whether any EU agreements require QMV or unanimous decisions, what happens in Hungary and Italy in the next month or so, whether the timetable shifts things in the middle of the French and German elections... I could go on.

As I say, the next 6 - 8 weeks however do provide the biggest and most revealing clues as to what we are likely to end up with.

To say that we had taken back control is absolutely laughable as we are just so much at the mercy of all these various forces and more. You have to be in control to drive a Hard Brexit. Of course, right now, the Brexiteers want to look and feel like they are in control. Frustrations will start to hit more and more, as the cold weather kicks in. The reality might prove a difficult pill to swallow.

So if you don't want a Hard Brexit, I suggest you keep writing those letters to your MPs with your concerns and problems. Whether you are a Leaver or a Remainer.

[SapphireStrange]

It's not just Osborne; there is indeed quite a bit of dissent in the ranks.

Europe has always been the Tories' Achilles heel.

[RedToothBrush]

Good good. The more that come out saying it publically the better.

[Marmitelover55]

Glad to read your analysis Red. I have been wondering if the hard brexit stance was just an initial negotiating position and not what was actually desired. This is reassuring to know I haven't completely taken leave of my senses. Fingers crossed for a successful challenge in the courts.

[jaws5]

I hope you're right red, I will remind myself of your words when I start worrying at night!

[Niamer]

Yes a really interesting analysis, Red. Here's hoping Brexit means very soft almost squidgy very close to what we had before Brexit.

[RBeer]

Brexit will be as bad as you think it will be. I am sorry to say but the sooner people realise that the better they are prepared.
That is why the last stage of grief is called Acceptance. Best to get thru bargaining and depression as quickly as you can.

Forewarned is Forearmed.

[RedToothBrush]

To put it another way, what else could Theresa May do?

She has to appear tough for negotiations, she has to please the Brexiteers, she has to be seen as committed to Brexit and she is extremely restricted in what she can actually do legally.

When you start thinking it through, she is very very limited in what she can do, certainly at present.

[RedToothBrush]

Oh I think Brexit will be bad. Really bad. But that definition is not fixed. Yet. And bad for who is now the issue.

[Peregrina]

The only way I could see Brexit being stopped would be if there was a shift in public opinion. Something like a major employer definitely pulling out might do it.

[Peregrina]

I think I can tell you who it won't be bad for! It won't be bad for the already wealthy, although they might lose a bit on their shares. So Farridge, Johnson, Cameron, Rees-Mogg will remain very comfortable indeed.

[RBeer]

UK heading for hard Brexit, say European diplomats

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/30/uk-heading-for-hard-brexit-say-european-diplomats?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[RedToothBrush]

RBeer, of course they will say that.
Especially if they want to scare us and force us to make concessions.

Its still trying to set the table up, for what happens next.

[IamWendy]

I want a hard brexit. I wanted out of the EU in its entirety. It's really not a bad or scary thing.

[RedToothBrush]

That's nice.

You still are a minority though.

Care to reassure the majority?