Exit Hard Right

[RBeer]

Looks like the fanatics on the right are getting their way and a Hard Brexit is the way its going.
Time to start planning the future....

Reuters.
Britain appears to be heading for a 'hard Brexit' under which its relationship with the European Union is reduced to little more than trade agreements, Scotland's external affairs minister Fiona Hyslop said on Monday.

Scotland recently appointed its own representative, Michael Russell, to take part in talks with Brexit minister David Davis to establish a UK position under which talks with the EU might take place.

"They've met within the last 10 days. The process for those internal negotiations is currently being established," Hyslop told Reuters in Paris after meeting France's European Affairs Minister Harlem Desir to discuss Scotland's attempts to make Brexit as much like remaining in the EU as possible.

"I'm worried just now that the UK looks as if its heading to a hard Brexit. However those internal discussions with Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland have only just started, so we will try and shift that position," she said.

[justicewomen]

For all you excited about hard exit, please do some research on regulatory conformity assessment  what is known generally as a non-tariff barrier (NTB) or, sometimes, as technical barrier to trade (TBT). This is regarded by experts (yes people who actually know their stuff) as the biggest concern about hard Brexit.

Potential exporters not only have to ensure their goods conform, they must provide evidence of their so doing. This requires putting the goods through a recognised system of what is known as “conformity assessment”.

As someone commenting on politics.co.uk said:
"They reason -deluded MPs- that merely conforming will give us "access", but that's just not true. It's the certification that's shot here, and that means consignments in inspection sheds at the border for days. Catastrophe"

The single market (soft Brexit) would give us the regulatory conformity to keep our trade going into our biggest market. Hard Brexit means we cannot trade for the time it takes to enter into the sort of agreements with the EU that China, US and Australia have already negotiated (all which took years). And the EU countries are not inclined to give us favourable terms.

This article explains it in detail: leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

[Peregrina]

We need to take some comfort from history. Portillo said in 1990 that the Poll tax was here to stay. The Poll tax did for Thatcher. Portillo, remember, used to be a politician, not someone travelling round on Europe's railways with a 1913 Bradshaw.

[RBeer]

Well apparently I was wrong, according to May, and there is no such thing as soft it hard brexit. So can we just call it Brexit Right.

[twofingerstoGideon]

it turns out there was a plan!

[Saxie007]

Don't forget more money on civil servants, management consultants and other bureaucrats.

Photo courtesy of have I got news for you.

[Peregrina]

wendy why do you want out of the EU in its entirety?

Silly question: £350 million a week for the NHS, Sovereignity, Curb EU immigration.

Realistic answers - end of car manufacturing in UK (nearly all foreign owned). Higher costs, lack of regional aid, break up of UK, still being bound to EU if we wish to export to them, lack of NHS staff...
Just a few for starters.

[Bearbehind]

I know you're right helmet but I live in hope that there really is more behind the 'we voted out, we're leaving, yay' type comments than meets the eye.

Unfortunately there's absolutely no evidence that they are any less vacant and meaningless than they first appear and there's not a single, credible argument behind them.

[Helmetbymidnight]

Ah come on, you know it's unfair to ask brexiters for details. It upsets them.

Brexit means brexit, right Wendy?!

[Bearbehind]

wendy why do you want out of the EU in its entirety?

How do you envisage that actually happening given how entwined our economy/ trade etc is?

[CrikeyJoseph]

Really hurt

[CrikeyJoseph]

Well l think you're wrong Wendy. The economy is pretty screwed now. It's not going to get better with no trade partners.

Everyone hates the banks but the financial sector puts a lot into the British economy. That in itself will really when/if it goes.

[RedToothBrush]

That's nice.

You still are a minority though.

Care to reassure the majority?

[IamWendy]

I want a hard brexit. I wanted out of the EU in its entirety. It's really not a bad or scary thing.

[RedToothBrush]

RBeer, of course they will say that.
Especially if they want to scare us and force us to make concessions.

Its still trying to set the table up, for what happens next.

[RBeer]

UK heading for hard Brexit, say European diplomats

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/30/uk-heading-for-hard-brexit-say-european-diplomats?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[Peregrina]

I think I can tell you who it won't be bad for! It won't be bad for the already wealthy, although they might lose a bit on their shares. So Farridge, Johnson, Cameron, Rees-Mogg will remain very comfortable indeed.

[Peregrina]

The only way I could see Brexit being stopped would be if there was a shift in public opinion. Something like a major employer definitely pulling out might do it.

[RedToothBrush]

Oh I think Brexit will be bad. Really bad. But that definition is not fixed. Yet. And bad for who is now the issue.

[RedToothBrush]

To put it another way, what else could Theresa May do?

She has to appear tough for negotiations, she has to please the Brexiteers, she has to be seen as committed to Brexit and she is extremely restricted in what she can actually do legally.

When you start thinking it through, she is very very limited in what she can do, certainly at present.

[RBeer]

Brexit will be as bad as you think it will be. I am sorry to say but the sooner people realise that the better they are prepared.
That is why the last stage of grief is called Acceptance. Best to get thru bargaining and depression as quickly as you can.

Forewarned is Forearmed.

[Niamer]

Yes a really interesting analysis, Red. Here's hoping Brexit means very soft almost squidgy very close to what we had before Brexit.

[jaws5]

I hope you're right red, I will remind myself of your words when I start worrying at night!

[Marmitelover55]

Glad to read your analysis Red. I have been wondering if the hard brexit stance was just an initial negotiating position and not what was actually desired. This is reassuring to know I haven't completely taken leave of my senses. Fingers crossed for a successful challenge in the courts.

[RedToothBrush]

Good good. The more that come out saying it publically the better.

[SapphireStrange]

It's not just Osborne; there is indeed quite a bit of dissent in the ranks.

Europe has always been the Tories' Achilles heel.