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Brexit

To believe that the Brexit will fail on legal grounds?

101 replies

MojitoMadame · 27/06/2016 10:14

It seems that under the European Union Act 2011, a Brexit will require not only a referendum but also an act of parliament to implement the decision and, given that apparently 75% of MPs were in the remain camp and will be free to vote as a matter of conscience, I cannot see the relevant legislation being passed.

So, in the words of Mark Twain, 'Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated'!

OP posts:
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SanityAssassin · 27/06/2016 10:43

It's such a tiny margin though, it doesn't feel like it should be allowed to happen when basically half of us don't want to leave.

LESS than half of those eligible and registered to vote who chose to exercise that right wanted to stay.

MORE than half of those eligible and registered to vote who chose to exercise that right wanted to leave.

Would you have felt the same if Remain had won with the same tiny margin ??

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Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 10:45

why I have re named him BOZO - I think to be named after a clown is rather apt don't you?

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OneArt · 27/06/2016 10:45

If you are a Remainer who is wondering what on earth you can do, please consider joining the Lib Dem party who have been consistently pro-Remain all the way through this campaign.

If there is a general election sooner than expected, and the Lib Dems won on a pledge of keeping us in the EU, then they would have a democratic mandate to ignore the referendum vote.

//www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36635273

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Somerville · 27/06/2016 10:46

There are quite a few EU countries who have a lot to lose if freedom of movement ends. Including Ireland, and the thread of the end of the peace process in the north. The EU was instrumental in improving the situation on the island of Ireland and the last thing anyone wants to see is border checks being started after nearly 100 years of being border free.

This, added to pressure from countries like Poland, whose young workers in the UK are nervous (and want to retain the freedom for family members to join them here) might be enough.

Plus, Merkel is really, really smart and she'll hopefully see the bigger picture.

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Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 10:48

Sanity

If you can explain what it means to leave, what will be achieved and how we will get there then we can argue about voting %

We have NOT GOT A PLAN! Even if was 70/30 I would have the same view - no one knows what has been voted for. So for me that makes it void

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peachpudding · 27/06/2016 10:48

be careful what you wish for... if you needed a clear majority, e.g. 60%, and a voter turnout of 75%+ before any change can be made

Consequences?

Let's say a clear majority wanted proportional representation, all the opposition has to do is have a don't bother to vote campaign and ANY majority can be defeated.

It would destroy democracy.

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Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 10:50

Some so we should hope that the EU will protect us? Isn't that the same Eu that we just had a referendum to Leave?

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Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 10:51

peach Here and now today the country is in a mess. We have no plan on how to get out of that mess. If Having debate in parliament will resolve and move us forward then I am happy to support

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Wellthatsit · 27/06/2016 10:51

The referendum isn't binding, so it's theoretically possible that the Government won't follow through. And it's not unprecedented either. Lots of countries have referendums then keep doing them til they get the desired result. Although it's usually to get change rather than to hang onto status quo. If the result had been Remain, there probably would have been another one ref, just not immediately, because the pressures that brought the first one wouldn't have gone away and the people lobbying for change would have continued to cause rifts and problems until they got another referendum. (Look at Scotland. There's been talk of indyref2 for two years, not just since Brexit. Sturgeon has now been handed a justification for it on a plate.)

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YetAnotherHelenMumsnet · 27/06/2016 10:53

Hi all,
After a great deal of requests we have concluded that the best thing to do to keep everyone as happy as possible right now is to move the bulk of the referendum threads to the new board here.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_

We sincerely understand the desire to discuss this subject at length and in detail but this seems to be the best way to keep AIBU and Chat moving for those who don't wish to participate. Of course the conversations will still appear in Active.

Many thanks.

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concertplayer · 27/06/2016 10:54

Either UKIP or a Right wing Tory Leave member will become PM
Mps will be whipped into Leave and that is that

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peachpudding · 27/06/2016 10:55

Showmethewaytogohome

How is the country in a mess? Life is carrying on as normal, there are no riots on the streets, why the hysteria just because the majority voted against what you wanted?

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Janecc · 27/06/2016 10:55

OneArt would be good. That could be a second referendum so to speak. I'd definitely be voting the most strategic way to avoid Brexit.

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howabout · 27/06/2016 10:57

I didn't express a view but my view is that if half of the UK ie Scotland and NI want to remain in (plus Gibraltar), then I don't see the result as a clear mandate (or a mandate at all) to leave.

10% would be a much more accurate percentage than half lol. Also even within Scotland 38% voted Brexit. These sort of misconceptions reflect the UK media's over obsession with Scottish matters from a position of ignorance.

Why on earth did the Remain campaign think NS and RD being part of the UK TV debating team was a good idea when trying to persuade an English eurosceptic electorate who most likely don't care either way whether Scotland become independent?

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OneArt · 27/06/2016 10:57

janecc it seems to me the only democratically defensible way of ignoring the referendum vote.

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HSMMaCM · 27/06/2016 10:59

I think the trouble is that less than half the eligible voters voted for Brexit and some of those who voted leave did so based on lies and others because they are racist and thought Brexit meant everyone who was not white British would be asked to leave immediately. Perhaps if these people had been told the truth, the vote would have gone the other way?

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Asprilla11 · 27/06/2016 11:02

So the general public, who are fed up with politics and politicians and have been for a while, turnout in massive numbers to vote on an important matter.

They are then told by those same politicians that actually you voted in the wrong way so we are going to ignore the result.

Yep that'll make 17 million people really engaged in politics!

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peachpudding · 27/06/2016 11:04

I think the trouble is that less than half the eligible voters voted for Remain and some of those who voted remain did so based on lies and others because they are afraid and thought Remain meant everyone would live happily ever after. Perhaps if these people had been told the truth, the vote would have been an even stronger majority?

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howabout · 27/06/2016 11:09

I agree peach. If the status quo cannot win a vote of confidence with a generally risk averse population then even a small majority for change is pretty emphatic.

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BonerSibary · 27/06/2016 11:11

I don't see OP saying anywhere that MPs should do this Glen. Just that they could. Which is correct. Legally, a referendum is advisory only, there's no obligation to pay any attention whatsoever, and it's entirely possible we could end up with a Parliamentary vote against, or a new GE with a Remain majority, before we leave.

Yes, clearly these things would all be highly problematic, and could lead to unrest. And given that some of our constituent countries voted for, some against, there's no way to resolve this that doesn't leave a democratic legitimacy problem. But that's what happens when we have a referendum on fundamentally changing our constitution without a road map for how to actually do it.

So I am not sure OP is right, I think the preferred outcome is likely to be EEA membership, and I also think Germany will want this because they export a lot to us so it's what is most likely to happen. But maybe not, particularly as that will require an explanation to the Leave voters that actually, immigration won't be going anywhere after all. I don't think anything can be ruled out at this point, though.

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RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 11:12

MPs have a duty to represent their constituents.

This is to listen to their views.
The views of all of their constituents.
This is where it is problematic, even if there is a majority for one side or the other. The views of the opposite are STILL relevant.

Ultimately they are supposed to act in the way they feel is in the best interest of the people they represent. They could decide that its not in the best interest to go with the 55% in an area with a 55:45 split as the fall out is likely to jeopardise the interests of some of that 55% badly.

They don't HAVE to listen.

And even if they do go with their constituents, the House of Lords is still there.... lurking.

I am really not sure how it will go though. The economic clock is ticking.

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marblestatue · 27/06/2016 11:12

Less than 50% of the voting population want this massive change, but we're all stuck with it.

If you toss a coin, the probability of it being "heads" is 1 in 2. But after you've thrown it, it is either 100 % heads or 100% tails. The voting population is 100 per cent of potential voters. But after the vote, the "voting population" are those who voted. Those who didn't vote don't get a say. More than 50 per cent of voters chose to vote to leave the EU.

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TwigTheWonderKid · 27/06/2016 11:14

angelos02, something keeps bothering me and, as you mention it in your post, I wonder if you could please explain to me how a Dulwich educated ex- commodity broker and a member of the Oxford elite are somehow not part of the establishment? Not to mention Murdoch.

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MaryPoppinsPenguins · 27/06/2016 11:17

I'm inclined to think this could've all been avoided if you had to display even the most basic levels of education before voting.... Hmm

m.youtube.com/watch?v=XDdLxTXBaAY

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thecatfromjapan · 27/06/2016 11:25

Can someone help me out with the constituency talk please as I'm quite puzzled by it and think the referendum was administered in different ways around the country.

TanTanNubuck I don't quite understand your question.

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