I may change my vote.

[CarlGrimesMissingEye]

I have been firmly on the side of leave. Predominately thanks to my basic disagreement with ever closer union. I was having a very healthy, sensible and inoffensive discussion with a remained for who I have great respect, and he pointed me in the direction of this:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/david-camerons-end-to-europes-ever-closer-union-means-britain-sh/

I read it and went on to glance over Tusk's later about the exemptions for Great Britain if we remain in the EU here:

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/02/02-letter-tusk-proposal-new-settlement-uk/

I would be curious to hear the views of other people here as to how they feel about this specific issue. How likely is it that Tusk and the EU can renege on their promises?

To be honest, if what is written about us being exempted from the ratchet of EU tighter control and the notion of being entitled to a referendum before more powers are conceded is true then that allays many of my concerns.

However, I am aware of the legislative creep that may circumvent this and I also have a basic lack of trust in politicians so I'm not 100% on certain what to do again.

Any views, other information etc would be great.

[shinytorch2]

Read this article - it's a sensible one! (and from the Guardian not the Daily Mail!!)

//www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/19/progressive-argument-for-leaving-eu-is-not-being-heard-referendum-brexit

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

I am not saying brexit voters are intrinsically racist

So you are saying Brexit voters are 'a bit' racist then?

I find your assumptions completely unfair.

Unless you know the political or otherwise, views of half the country then I politely suggest you are carefully with language you use.

It is stuff like this that is going to end up causing more division in the future not less

[rumblingDMexploitingbstds]

Throwing away a leave vote on a gesture against racism seems a bit silly to be honest. If I concentrated my voting decision on never supporting any aspect of a group I morally disapproved of I'd be forced to spoil every paper.

If I was worried about this one aspect above every other aspect of a leave vote, I might also then have to consider whether a 'remain' outcome may trigger massive support for extremist parties by the disenchanted half of the electorate who didn't get what they wanted, and my remain vote was unintentionally supporting that. I'm not keen to see the UK version of Donald Trump in power. Let's face it, Donald Trump makes Farage look like Mary Whitehouse.

[Wellthatsit]

oranges, it is you who needs to be careful as you are still misunderstanding me.
what I am saying is that it is doesn't matter what your reasons for voting Brexit are. If you do, you will - regardless whether you love or hate farage- will empower him as racist followers, and that is a dangerous thing.
I could not vote leave for that reason alone. It is a red line for me.

[Wellthatsit]

and his * not as

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

regardless whether you love or hate farage- will empower him as racist followers, and that is a dangerous thing.

You really think that if the vote is remain then these people will go away then?

As has been said there is a rise in the far right all over Europe.

I don't know how you quieten them but if you think that it will all go away if the vote is remain then imo you are wrong.

If anything as rumbling has said, it could get worse.

[Wellthatsit]

Well, I think many may end up rueing the day they gave farage and his like any kind of mandate.
I don't see this debate as particularly subtle and nuanced, or about pregressive politics. I think it's pretty black and white and am treating it that way. Call me cynical if you like.

[Wellthatsit]

Of course it won't go away, but the more people who stand against it the better. That's just common sense.

[WellErrr]

NO ONE'S GIVING FARAGE POWER.

Voting Leave does not somehow make Farage PM. He's a campaigner like many others; just one of many.

[Wellthatsit]

If we vote leave, a side effect of that will be that Farage will have gained a mandate to further his agenda. Some leave voters want this. Many don't, but I think they will have to suffer it. Like I say, call me cynical but that's what I think will happen.

[shinytorch2]

But Farage is not an MP, he was defeated in Thanet in the last election - he will be an out of work MEP if Brexit wins on Thursday. If Brexit wins what is the point of UKIP - surely they disappear? No mainstream, democratically elected politician seems to want to welcome Farage - he is not an official part of the Leave campaign.

If Remain wins I think it will rejuventate UKIP even more - lots of disaffected Labour voters who feel Labour does not represent them and all the "one time Tories" who voted Tory at the last election to get this referendum. 4 million people supported UKIP at the last election and they came second to mainly Labour in loads of Northern Labour heartland seats.

Is this what you mean by Farage getting a mandate to further his agenda (ie. keep plugging away for another referendum?)

[Mistigri]

But Farage is not an MP, he was defeated in Thanet in the last election - he will be an out of work MEP if Brexit wins on Thursday. If Brexit wins what is the point of UKIP - surely they disappear?

I'm not sure tbh, as I do think the way that the leave campaign has focused on immigration has changed the mood of parts of the country, making a swing towards UKIP possible. Whether this takes the form of increased votes for UKIP itself, or simply a "ukipification" of both the Tory party (which arguably has already happened) and potentially Labour too, is not yet clear. Of course, this may happen whichever side wins.

[RedToothBrush]

Farage is given power, when you say that he represent the whole of the Leave campaign.

He is controlling the agenda because of this. He forces Leave to talk about it and he controls Remain because he forces them to talk about it on his terms and from his angle.

This does sort of suit Remain until Thursday. It does not suit British politics in the long term.

Putting him back in his box is going to be a difficult business for Leave and Remain politicians who will regret not tackling issues sooner. They wrongly thought that this referendum would end him one way or another.

It won't.

I honestly think we need to start thinking about that collectively, given his last stunt.

[timeexperiencer]

On 'ever closer union': Full Fact has a piece by a legal academic who argues that the phrase has no legal bite in the first place, but that politically the UK can be exempted from it in a future treaty change. There's another on whether the whole deal is legally binding. The ever-closer union agreement is binding under international law, not EU law (so can't be enforced or opposed through the EU), whilst other parts of the deal require changes to EU law and have to go through the normal process, with votes in the European Parliament & Council.

Personally I find the argument that the whole phrase is “the process of creating an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as openly as possible and as closely as possible to the citizen”, and is generally used as such pretty convincing. It won't be a big factor in my decision.
If you think that the referendum is actually more of a constitutional question than the weighing up of policies & theoretical outcomes you might find this blog post interesting.

[Calamara]

We are the only ones with this exemption from ever closer union, so it is unsustainable. All other non-Eurozone member states are (in theory) meant to be making efforts to join it. As integration continues, there will come a point when we would either have to abandon our exemption of our own volition or abandon the EU. Staying on the edge - not being fully in, but not having the freedoms of being out, is the worst of both worlds.

[Wellthatsit]

I can see what you mean shiny. If we vote Remain, there is still something to rail against by the Farage set. But I don't agree re Leave's effects. I don't think Farage will go away or UKIP will go away if we vote leave. They are not one hit wonders. Look at the party's ascension in the last few years. I believe their attitudes and beliefs will just gain more momentum within the context of 'victory' re Europe. Immigration isn't going away whatever happens so those who dislike migrants will still have something to be pissed off about, and racism doesn't operate within rational and thoughtful frameworks, so that's not going away either.
Whatever the problems with the EU, the problem of creeping nationalism and racism is a much bigger and more insidious one.

[Winterbiscuit]

Yes shinytorch. Farage and UKIP are given far too much emphasis and airtime by the media. It's way out of proportion for a minority party which got 12.6 per cent of the vote and have just 1 MP (who isn't Farage).

Most of us on the Leave side are just ordinary, moderate members of the public.

[Littlemisslovesspiders]

Most of us on the Leave side are just ordinary, moderate members of the public.

Exactly. Unfortunately people don't necessarily want to believe that.

[Wellthatsit]

Great blog post timeexperiencer

[Calamara]

UKIP is a single issue party. They have a fair number of MEPs but only one MP. If Leave win, they will be gone by the next election because they will have no public office. Farage will be able to retire as an MEP and UKIP will have no funding revenues or public face to court the media with.

If Remain win by a small margin UKIP will continue to do what is has always done, with the platform of having been supported by vast numbers of people. They will be able to argue that, with significant changes afoot in the EU, a further referendum will be necessary before too long and they need to stick around to make the case for Leave.

[shinytorch2]

Wellthatsit - I think if we vote Remain it will give fuel to the UKIP fire - there is a reason for them to exist - to rail against the EU and to profer numerous "I told you so" statements.

However, I disagree with your scenario about what will happen if we leave - UKIP will be over - we will be an independent nation. I think they are a one policy wonder! They have no MPs that are going to be in Government. They have no other policies in their manifesto...they will wither and die and we will move on, with immigration on a skills based, points based system instead of on an unlimited basis from the EU.

[Wellthatsit]

Winter and little, I suspect you feel as if people aren't recognising your moderate stance. But that's where the problem lies. Because if Leave win, it really won't matter how many people voted leave in a 'moderate thoughtful' way. It will be sold in the press and in politics as a vote for UKIP and the (far) right wingers.I predict that the moderate vote will be ignored, hence lending weight and power to the extremes.

[Wellthatsit]

OK Calamara - I sincerely hope you are correct. I am not feeling it right now, but we will see.

[AnnaForbes]

OP, you asked how likely is it that Tusk and the EU can renege on their promises. They can because the deal is not legally binding. However, whether Tusk reneges or not, if we remain our influence at the EU table will be insignificant.

The way I see it, the EU is irrefutably committed to ever-closer union. The Five Presidents Report sets out a clear timeline for the further integration of the Eurozone countries. 19 countries are currently in the Eurozone, and as others join only UK and Denmark will be outside. We are already in a minority as an EU country outside of the Eurozone and as other states join the Eurozone, our influence will shrink to zero as we sit in a second, less favourable tier.

The red card that Cameron got us is not a veto. The UK cannot unilaterally veto any legislation. What the red card means is that IF we can persuade 14 other states to support us , we can vote against legislation. However, in order to gain this red card, Cameron gave away our right to veto any further integration of the Eurozone bloc into a superstate . We will have to accept new legislation however damaging to us. So, going back to your OP, Cameron has given away our ability to prevent further integration.