I may change my vote.

[CarlGrimesMissingEye]

I have been firmly on the side of leave. Predominately thanks to my basic disagreement with ever closer union. I was having a very healthy, sensible and inoffensive discussion with a remained for who I have great respect, and he pointed me in the direction of this:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/david-camerons-end-to-europes-ever-closer-union-means-britain-sh/

I read it and went on to glance over Tusk's later about the exemptions for Great Britain if we remain in the EU here:

www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/02/02-letter-tusk-proposal-new-settlement-uk/

I would be curious to hear the views of other people here as to how they feel about this specific issue. How likely is it that Tusk and the EU can renege on their promises?

To be honest, if what is written about us being exempted from the ratchet of EU tighter control and the notion of being entitled to a referendum before more powers are conceded is true then that allays many of my concerns.

However, I am aware of the legislative creep that may circumvent this and I also have a basic lack of trust in politicians so I'm not 100% on certain what to do again.

Any views, other information etc would be great.

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

So Conservative voters should vote out Alfie as you are voting remain because you don't want what the Tories are doing?

[CoolforKittyCats]

The Farage poster was completely wrong.

The new Remain poster has also sunk to a new low. What is also upsetting is people can't see what is wrong with them.

All so divisive.

[CarlGrimesMissingEye]

I'm very disappointed in our politicians full stop. In the days of social media and I stand global communication it would be much better to just fight a fair campaign.

[Alfieisnoisy]

This is not a political referendum...this is a referendum based upon hatred. If I wasn't so worried about the result I would abstain.

There is also now a nasty little theory going round the Leave sites that the murder of Jo Cox was a set up. Tells me all I need to know about the mindset of some Leave voters. I have no wish to be on their "side".

[bridgetoc]

Nothing wrong with remainers trying to exploit that poor womans murder for political gain though is there Alfie? Tells me all I need to know about the mindset of remain voters.

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

There is also now a nasty little theory going round the Leave sites that the murder of Jo Cox was a set up.

Which is awful.

Tells me all I need to know about the mindset of some Leave voters. I have no wish to be on their "side".

You know half the country? Wow.

Let's not pretend the Remain haven't tried to politicise Jo's death because they have.

I'm not so blinkered as to not see it and condem both for doing it.

[Mistigri]

OP, to start with, I think the whole issue of "ever closer union" has been wilfully misinterpreted by the leave campaign - it's clear that as things stand, with anti-federalist opinion dominating in many european states, it would be impossible to achieve anyway. Treaty change requires unanimity and, in many countries, the explicit support of the electorate via a referendum. Ditto the accession of new members, which no serious commentators expect within the next decade (and as far as Turkey is concerned, it's even further away).

One thing to bear in mind, re Britain's special status, is that leaving is irrevocable - should it all go horribly wrong, and a future government decide to apply for readmission to the EU, the UK would undoubtedly lose all its carefully and painstakingly negotiated opt-outs - of the euro, of Schenghen, of closer political union.

[ThelmaLouise]

The idea that the UK can reform the EU from within is just nonsense. We have been part of the EU since 1973, 43 years, and have we reformed it during that time? As for the crazy conspiracy theory about Jo Cox's murder, I won't let a few idiots convince me to remain because I don't want to be on their ''side''. Many, many people who want to leave are decent, tolerant, rational and intelligent and wouldn't believe for a second in this ridiculous theory. I think that the Remain side's blatant exploitation of this poor lady's dreadful murder to further their cause if quite frankly disgusting.

[MangosteenSoda]

Kitty what poster are you referring to?

[RedToothBrush]

You might want to consider it from this point of view:

There has been much said by the UK and EU about it being legally binding. If that proves not to be the case, it has implications throughout Europe for other countries.

I personally think that the document IS therefore legally binding, but even if it isn't, the political climate across Europe is such that, no one else wants to risk anyone else living and there will be a feeling of doing as much as possible to support agreements made to keep the UK staying in. Ultimately if they do renege on the deal, it will only destabilise the UK again, and the likelihood of a 2nd referendum on that basis will be high, since the result of the referendum is likely to be close even if Remain do win.

Other EU countries DO NOT want us to leave. Now or sometime in the future.

The UK is also not the only country which is unhappy with the EU and is looking for some sort of reform.

The political climate is sure that if any other EU nation does decide to not honour the agreement, there would be enormous fall out and pressure on them to change their mind: In other words everyone else will be on our side.

The countries most likely to do this, are the Eastern European members - who if you believe any of the stuff in the press, seem to be the ones with the most to loose. The ones least likely to do this are France and Germany, who see losing the UK from the EU as the thing most likely to damage them.

The balance of probability is stack strongly in our favour, imho. Legally binding or not.

FWIW, I think that if the UK referendum does vote to stay, the EU have been quite stunned by how close its been run and how much negative feeling it has unleashed. They do not want this in their own countries. I think the moment for more reform on our terms and to listen to the UK a bit more, is possibly more there than it has been. Not because they want to make concessions to the UK, but more because they have had their eyes opened to the possibility of similar ill feeling to the EU at home and questions about its influence and conduct. We are not the only country with national pride.

[Stevie77]

OP, I very much understand where you're coming from. I've been leaning towards Leave throughout but as we've been getting closer to Thurs I'm starting to change my mind.

I'm in my 40th year, the speculation over post-Brexit era does concern me WRT the rest of my working life, pension. I watched QT last night and thought Caneron made a good point when he said it has taken 7 years to negotiate the EU deal with Canada, and it's not even completed. Could the UK economy survive such long term uncertainty? I don't think so. Yes, there is uncertainty with staying in the EU. But I think if it all goes t!ts up then we will be able to bail out, a bit injured but still.

As for immigration, it's never been a strong Leave motivation for me. I think our gov can do things to deter/reduce some of the EU migration, they just choose to not do that.

If there are such strong anti-federalist feelings within other countries, as Leave claim, then the UK should be able to make some allies in the EU to force some reform.

[Margrethe]

Goo points Redtoothbrush.

[Wellthatsit]

The remain campaign has NOT exploited Jo Cox's murder Thelma. There has been analysis in the media about how the mood of the country may have contributed to radicalising a me tally unstablean with fascist leanings. (The same analysis as happened after Lee rigby's murder by a radicalised, me tally unstablean).
What is an absolute scandal is the posters unveiled by Farage on the same day as the murder. And as far as I am concerned, anyone voting Brexit is aligning themselves with the likes of Farage and his racist followers, regardless of their reasons for wanting to leave. Our country is in a dangerous place right now - the mood is nasty, and could deteriorate further, and we need to stand against that.

[Wellthatsit]

Sorry for typos - hope you can understand what I have said

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

And as far as I am concerned, anyone voting Brexit is aligning themselves with the likes of Farage and his racist followers, regardless of their reasons for wanting to leave

Sorry but you are tarring everyone with the same brush.

There are some names on the remain side that I wouldn't want to be associated with either .

[rumblingDMexploitingbstds]

As far as I understand (and what I can find online is from Feb so please update me if anyone knows more recent info) the agreement David Cameron made with the EU is currently theoretical, because a remain vote is the the trigger for implementing the agreement. It does not yet exist except in theory. Once a remain vote comes in, the EU Parliament will then debate and vote on it, which means they will get a say over it and they may in the event of it actually happening, choose not just wave it through as Cameron is suggesting. Cameron can't promise this. Guy Verhofstadt has said during a parliamentary session that he did not agree with and would not be accepting it.

If a remain vote comes in and the danger of the UK general public walking is at an end, several things are likely to start coming out like this, along with the reported pieces of legislation being held back until after the referendum as they will be unpopular. Such as taxing petrol and electricity, as is being reported in a number of newspapers.

It also worries me that this kind of agreement, made at the moment when the UK public are on the very edge of voting to leave, is as reassuring as possible to the 'leave' voters to keep them in. In a few years when Labour or the SNP are in power in the UK again, two very pro EU parties, there will be nothing to stop a highly pro EU PM and cabinet from conceding on these things and making decisions that many wavering voters would find intolerable.

DC is very good indeed at saying what helps his agenda with his audience in the moment, and then quite without conscience later on doing something quite different to what he said. Like trying to make all schools academies, for example.



It means the 751-member European Parliament, pictured above, will get a say over the welfare aspects of the deal - the crucial components relating to the 'emergency brake' on migrant benefits and reforms to how child benefit works.

[rumblingDMexploitingbstds]

grrr, ignore the bottom two lines, I was copying sources to try and find the most recent one.

[Wellthatsit]

oranges, not tarring everyone with the same brush. what I said is that is that it doesn't matter how rational and educated tour reasons are for supporting a Brexit - and there are lots of perfectly reasonable arguments - you are standing alongside the racists such as Farage and therefore failing to stand against them.

[Margrethe]

Sorry Wellthatsit, saying that voting Brexit means that a person supports everything Nigel Farrage has to say is ridiculous. It is the same as saying that someone voting Remains supports everything that big corporations do to us and every piece of meddlesome EU legislation. Of course they don't.

Neither group is sweetness and light and both sides of the coin have their less palatable elements. If we vote, we will all have to hold our noses as we do it.

[rumblingDMexploitingbstds]

So to vote leave is intrinsically racist then?

[WellErrr]

you are standing alongside the racists such as Farage and therefore failing to stand against them

Nope, I'm standing up for democracy.

It would be incredibly short sighted to base a vote on whether we live in a dictatorship or a democracy on the personalities of the day.

[WellErrr]

So to vote leave is intrinsically racist then?

Apparently

Smacks of desperation to me.

[Wellthatsit]

Well, clearly you are failing to understand what I am saying. I am not saying brexit voters are intrinsically racist. I am saying that people need to understand that there is a racist element in the leave campaign and therefore voting leave will further their cause.
If leave win the is vote, the racists will have been buoyed up and strengthened. And that alone would give me massive pause for thought re voting leave.

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

oranges, not tarring everyone with the same brush. what I said is that is that it doesn't matter how rational and educated tour reasons are for supporting a Brexit - and there are lots of perfectly reasonable arguments - you are standing alongside the racists such as Farage and therefore failing to stand against them.

As I have also said. There are some quite unsavoury characters for remain too. That is what I'm saying too.

Neither side is squeaky clean. No one can pretend it is.

I completely oppose UKIP.

[DeloresJaneUmbridge]

You know half the country? Wow.

I think the key word in the quote you added was "some". The poster said "SOME of the leave camp".

I am voting Remain too.

And as far as I can see the murder of Jo Cox was a politically motivated one given what he said as he.murdered her.

How exactly have the Remain camp exploited her murder for political gain beyond pointing out that the terrorist who killed her had links to far right groups? Please do enlighten me.

They have not as far as I know shouted "Hurrah she died for our cause". Meanwhile back in the leave camp there are some scary individuals who think it was set up and,are saying so.

We can vote Leave, we can vote Remain but the fact ao many big business leaders not to mention financial institutions are saying "Hang on this could be suicide" gives me an idea that we will be better off remaining.