Fewer Babies?

[TheCatsBlanket]

Not sure if this has been discussed before, sorry if it has but with the lockdown from late March, I was wondering if there will be fewer babies born at the beginning of 2021? I don't mean babies born to those who live together / married, but rather from the lack of new relationships starting up.
Worldwide there has to be fewer pregnancies doesn't there. Any medical folk here who can answer this?

[user1477391263]

Births are almost certainly going to fall quite a lot in most countries (higher income and middle income countries). Demographers are pretty united in their opinion about this. About 10% fewer births is predicted for most developed and middle income countries.

www.deseret.com/indepth/2020/6/23/21299336/covid-19-birth-rate-decline-brookings-institution-education-economy-social-security-safety-net

Historically, disasters such as pandemics usually result in fewer births not just in the subsequent year but for many years. This was true even in eras when modern birth control was not available, and is even likelier to be true now. The 2008-9 financial crisis, for example, was followed by a falling fertility rate from 2010 (i.e as soon as the financial consequences of the crisis began to be felt, people planned fewer pregnancies). The decline then continued, and never really recovered, actually. I think something similar is likely to happen from 2021 onwards.

The picture for the poorer countries is less clear. There have been upticks in births in unmarried teenage girls in places like Uganda and the Philippines where such births are quite common in general. Of course, it's also quite likely that this could be balanced out by fewer births in married 20s/30s/40s women in these countries.

[TheCatsBlanket]

Thanks for all the answers and points of view. An interesting thought though to wonder what percentage of babies born in any normal year (just thinking UK as opposed to worldwide) are the result of new relationships or one night stands that would ordinarily have occured if pubs/clubs had been open and holidays abroad had been allowed where the booze flows freely.

[HelloMissus]

I’m surprised at women deliberately trying to conceive during lockdown knowing the situation with health care etc
And that’s before concerns over the economy.

I mean I know accidents happen but thinking to yourself - yes I what I really want is to labour alone in an overstretched hospital, knowing full well next year will be a shit show

[lolabears]

I know lots expecting 2021 babies. Some took advantage of being home and cracked on sooner than they thought possible.

[OpheliasCrayon]

I'd take a guess that not much will change.
I think that the fact that more people are at home with not much to do, and therefore may be getting down to it more often..will balance out the lack of new relationships (as usually you'd wait a little before having a baby so I would guess you're talking about unplanned pregnancies ).

I would guess that some people will delay having babies yes, but I'm not overly sure that there are going to be that many people who do.

[Orangeteddy]

I work in insights and there has been a marked downturn in people searching for maternity clothes online over the last few months which would suggest a downturn in the birth rate at least for the first half of next year. In contrast most other clothing categories have seen a rise in searches due to shops being closed.

Currently we are still seeing pre-Covid conceived births but this will probably drop off soon. Uncertainties around finances and health will have meant some people will delay their baby plans. Also with weddings delayed, lack of socialising etc which will all impact. There may be a mini boom once a vaccine is in place and if the economy starts recovering.

[OpheliasCrayon]

@Orangeteddy

I work in insights and there has been a marked downturn in people searching for maternity clothes online over the last few months which would suggest a downturn in the birth rate at least for the first half of next year. In contrast most other clothing categories have seen a rise in searches due to shops being closed.

Currently we are still seeing pre-Covid conceived births but this will probably drop off soon. Uncertainties around finances and health will have meant some people will delay their baby plans. Also with weddings delayed, lack of socialising etc which will all impact. There may be a mini boom once a vaccine is in place and if the economy starts recovering.

This said though I only bought maternity clothes when I had to go out - so my first pregnancy I bought a couple dresses for work and that was that. Second one I wasn't working so I just wore PJs or shorts around the house (and not the two dresses I'd bought before either as they were smart). So since I was at home the whole time I didn't buy a single item of maternity clothes. So I don't know that the fact people aren't buying them means there's less pregnancies !

[Gillian1980]

@DogsDinner

History would suggest there’s likely to be a drop in the birth rate, as there usually is during times of crisis or economic uncertainty.

Plus, as you say, there’s been less opportunities for people to get together this year.

Obviously this depends on contraception being available. I think some countries are predicted a baby boom as Covid made it difficult for women to access their usual birth control.

It would be interesting to hear any midwives point of view!

I had real trouble getting my pill at one stage, as they wanted to check weight and blood pressure first.... which was a nightmare getting an appointment for. Then issues getting the prescription filled....

I ended up off the pill for 3 weeks and so we abstained for most of that time as not keen on condoms.

I imagine a lot of people struggled similarly and that’s just in a uk city!

[Gillian1980]

Oh and this year has really emphasised to me that we have no plans for any more children! It has been so bloody stressful, doing it all again but with another baby is my idea of hell.

I love my children dearly but my god it’s been difficult and we’ve aged so much this year.

[Flushii]

I’m not sure, I think there will be a boom from married couples/couples in a long term relationship, but as you say, very few people have been able to have ONS/form new relationships so I think there may be a dip.

[BeingATwatItsABingThing]

I’ve heard lots of pregnancy announcements but I think that’s because I was pregnant. It was the same when I was pregnant with DD1. I just noticed it more.

Like PPs, DD2 was cooking before Covid was a word I knew. She is now 8 weeks old. She also took over a year to conceive so I don’t know if I would have stopped trying if I wasn’t already pregnant.

I think the numbers will even out. Fewer accidental pregnancies from nights out, new relationships, etc. but more from couples moving TTC forward or being at home more. Less travel time and people at home more could mean they had more energy to DTD more frequently. 🤷‍♀️

[DominaShantotto]

I know a fair few couples who've just announced they're expecting - one of whom reproduce at a fair rate anyhow - and some others have had weddings cancelled a couple of times because of covid so decided to switch the order from wedding>baby since the Government haven't cancelled bonking yet.

[DominaShantotto]

Plus let's face it - the initial lockdown telly was shite.

[WhatAWonderfulWorldd]

Yes I think so, I also think there will be less because even in a relationship/married I wouldn't want to be pregnant or baby born during a pandemic.

[BogRollBOGOF]

My initial thought was that enforced time together would result in a mini-boom a la 3 day week in the 70s... a couple of weeks full time with DH and the DCs made me re-evaluate Also the effects of central heating and Netflix should not be underestimated!

I think an increase in first time mums. Babies that would happen anyway. Some plans being accelerated around life changes, getting on with life while you can.

A longer term reduction from lack of new couples.

Less siblings where lack of childcare, external support and schooling have put existing families under pressure which is a huge proportion.

New Year will be about the point where lockdown #1 begins to be seen on birth rates.

[TheSunIsStillShining]

Look at ONS website. They usually have figures around UK population, economy, that sort of shit

[Lelophants]

There was a radio 4 discussion about how there are fewer babies yes!
Reasons being:

• No accidents and one night stands
• Potentially less access to emergency contraception if it happens- people really weren't going anywhere in April
• Fertility treatment stopped
• Couples realising it's not the best time to start a family
• General doom and gloom, not really wanting to have sex.

I think it has now changed though so summer will probably see a lot more.

[Mochudubh]

I found it weird to discover that 2 colleagues have had babies that I didn't even know were pregnant when lockdown happened.

[Babyroobs]

I certainly wouldn't bring another child into this mess but I guess others have different ideas.

[Mishmased]

Our two kids were born in 2013 and 2015 so technically recession babies. We've always wanted 3 but due to move 300km away and me starting a new job, by the time we decided to have a third in March of this year Covid happened. We discussed it and decided to hold off for a couple of months. In June we decided to go ahead and I got pregnant in July but lost it at 6 weeks. Got pregnant inAugust and coming up to 12 weeks.

We weren't going to delay ttc any more as I'm 34 and DH is 35 and age 35 is his cut off. We wanted to have a baby between March and May, this baby just made it as EDD is 31st May and I will be having a section so baby will be born latest May.

We're lucky I can get pregnant very easily and my mc in July was my first, maybe if it had taken us longer to conceive then we would have settled for two kids. If I hadn't gotten pregnant by October we would have called it quits.

We have very stable jobs (Pharma and IT), DH works from home and I did but hated it so back to the office on shift. Covid hasn't made a huge impact on our decision. If one of us had lost our jobs then maybe.

Only 2 people know about us having another baby but it wouldn't come as a surprise because I've been talking about having a baby for the last two years.

In summary we are having a baby after much consideration because we want to not because of Covid. Both my kids were easy pregnancies but tough work (especially first) but this pregnancy has been a bit tough so hopefully easy baby😆

[WoolyMammoth55]

I conceived in April, early lockdown, and am due in January.

We had been waiting 2 years for my thyroid levels to stabilise after developing postnatal thyroiditis when baby #1 was born in 2017. So when we got the green light (I was about to turn 40 too!) we just decided to go for it, pandemic or not :)

I'm out in the sticks in Somerset and my MW says they are quiet, comparative to previous years. So no lockdown baby boom here, at least anecdotally.

[Parkandride]

@HelloMissus

I’m surprised at women deliberately trying to conceive during lockdown knowing the situation with health care etc
And that’s before concerns over the economy.

I mean I know accidents happen but thinking to yourself - yes I what I really want is to labour alone in an overstretched hospital, knowing full well next year will be a shit show

Many can't wait, and haven't been affected career wise.
Birth is a couple of days out of a lifetime, I looked at the whole package.

They've been plenty of positives, no having to conceal a pregnancy before you're ready to tell the world, working from home very handy for early pregnancy symptoms, no missing out on boozy socialising, calm quiet hospital waiting rooms without whole families trooping in too.

[Mishmased]

@Parkandride absolutely spot on about the positives. I still have to go to work but for only two days an week and at almost 12 weeks pregnant only one of my neighbors knows as we're in lockdown just after I got pregnant (Ireland) so no one is outside. I'm looking forward to calm post natal ward without troops of people calling😁 Mine will be an elective section so no faffing around with labour 😂😂

[SnuggyBuggy]

Some will disagree but I hope the lower numbers of visitors on postnatal is something that stays after this is over.

[Redolent]

@HelloMissus

I’m surprised at women deliberately trying to conceive during lockdown knowing the situation with health care etc
And that’s before concerns over the economy.

I mean I know accidents happen but thinking to yourself - yes I what I really want is to labour alone in an overstretched hospital, knowing full well next year will be a shit show

The scientific consensus is that the shit show is happening this year, and that next year spring/summer will see significant improvements with healthcare staff being vaccinated, better treatments, etc